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Brief introduction of basic analysis methods
1. Introduction 2. Necessity of investment analysis
1. Introduction
The stock price is the price at which the stock is sold in the market. Its specific price and its fluctuation are influenced by various economic and political factors, investment psychology and trading technology. To sum up, the factors that affect the stock price and its fluctuation can be mainly divided into two categories: one is fundamental factors; The other is the technical factor.
The so-called fundamental factors refer to economic, political and other factors outside the stock market, and their fluctuations and changes often have a decisive impact on the market price trend of stocks. Generally speaking, the basic factors mainly include economic factors, political factors, human manipulation factors and other factors.
The buying and selling price of stocks in the market is the most concerned issue for every investor. Since the emergence of the stock market, all kinds of stock analysts and experienced investors have been tirelessly looking for ways to analyze and predict stock prices. Some people started with the relationship between market supply and demand, and evolved into a technical analysis method of stock price, while others started with the analysis of factors affecting stock price, forming a basic analysis method of stock price. For the technical analysis theory and method of stock price, we will explain it in detail in the third part. Here, let's first specifically study the basic analysis methods of stock prices.
The so-called basic analysis method, also known as fundamental analysis method, refers to focusing on the intrinsic value of stocks. The price of stock value in the market is often influenced by many factors and changes frequently. Therefore, the actual value of a stock is difficult to be completely consistent with the market price. If one day, influenced by an extraordinary factor, the price deviates from the value, coupled with the panic of some investors, it will inevitably lead to chaos and even crisis in the stock market. If a stock is found to be overvalued in the market, it will inevitably be sold. If another stock is undervalued, it will definitely cause investors to snap up. There are many factors that affect the stock value, the most important of which are three aspects: First, whether the national economic environment is prosperous or depressed. The second is the situation of various economic sectors in agriculture, industry, commerce, transportation, public utilities (market forums), finance and other industries. Third, what is the operating status of the company that issues shares? If it is properly managed and profitable, its stock value will be high and its share price will be correspondingly high. On the contrary, its value is low and the stock price is cheap.
The basic analysis method is to use rich statistical data and various economic indicators, adopt proportional and dynamic analysis methods, start with the macro-economic prosperity, and then gradually analyze the rise and fall of the meso-industry, and then objectively evaluate the stocks issued by enterprises according to the micro-enterprise operation and profitability and prospects, and predict their future changes as much as possible as a basis for investors to buy. Because of its systematic theory, it is highly praised by scholars and becomes the mainstream of stock price analysis.
The basic analysis method is the most important and important analysis method for investors and "amateur" investors who are ready to do long-term trading. Because this analysis method starts with the analysis of the intrinsic value of the stock and puts the analysis results of the overall environment of the stock market in the second place, when we are optimistic about a stock, we pay attention to its inherent potential and good prospects for long-term development. Therefore, when we use this analysis method to make a forecast analysis and buy a specific stock at a suitable time, we don't have to spend too much time and energy to care about the real-time trend of the stock price.
2. The necessity of investment analysis
First, stocks are risky assets, and the risks are borne by investors, so every investor should be cautious at every step. High returns also bring high risks. When investing in stocks, in order to get as much income as possible and minimize possible risks, the first thing we should do is to carefully analyze stock investment. In this way, in the process of buying and selling, we will have confidence, make us see possible risks, avoid hidden traps in time, and ensure the most important point of our investment action-safety.
Second, stock investment is a kind of intelligent investment. Long-term investors should pay attention to basic methods, while short-term investors should pay attention to technical analysis. Stock trading is a move that requires great wisdom and courage, and its premise is to seize the opportunity to invest. Timing requires investors to comprehensively use their own knowledge, theory, technology and methods to make detailed and serious analysis and make scientific decisions in order to obtain guaranteed investment income. This is essentially different from blind gambling investment.
Third, we should do what we can to invest in stocks, and enough is enough. Always keep a cool head and resolutely put an end to greed, thinking that even if there is only one impulsive gambling impulse, you will regret it.
When analyzing stock investment, investors are often restricted by problems such as insufficient information, incomplete analytical tools and limited personal analytical ability. Therefore, in addition to their own analysis, investors should also refer to the analysis of stock investment made by external forces in order to make a correct judgment. Because the analysis of stock investment is a complicated process, we should take steps from macro to micro and from far to near when considering the problem.
The first step: we must make a detailed analysis of the operation of the whole national economy, including production, circulation and service departments, and understand the growth stages and development trends of various departments and regions of the national economy, so as to identify thousands of specific enterprises and understand the specific economic activities they are engaged in under the economic environment and the characteristics of their industries.
Step 2: Analyze the companies that issue shares. Because stocks are issued by different enterprises, each enterprise has its own characteristics. To understand it, we should start with the economic and financial situation of stock issuing enterprises and look at their capital strength, technical strength, efficiency, solvency and growth potential. , so as to make appropriate judgments and evaluations on stock issuing enterprises. At the same time, combined with the analysis of the historical trend of its stock itself, we can see its characteristics and trajectory related to market price changes and the company's financial situation, as well as the corresponding relationship between stock trading volume and stock price changes and market price changes, and use the results of various analyses to predict the characteristics and trends of future stock changes.
Step 3: Analyze the stock market. The overall performance of the stock market may be consistent with the results of fundamental analysis, but not necessarily the same. The market behavior of stocks is often contrary to the behavior of the basic economy. The economic situation of a stock market and the present situation of the national economy may be good, but the market price of this stock may fall. On the contrary, the basic situation of the national economy may not be good, but the whole stock market may be prosperous. Generally speaking, the overall behavior of the stock market may be different from that expected by the basic investment analysis. The stock market has its own likes and dislikes. Investors and speculators tend to prefer certain stocks in certain industries to certain stocks in other industries. This situation may make the market trend run counter to the whole national economy. But this kind of behavior is usually a short-term phenomenon, and investors should not ignore the possible gains and losses. At the same time, the trend of the stock market may be ahead of the economic situation, and its periodic changes will respond to temporary technical, psychological and investor emotional events that may or may not be seen, making some stocks fluctuate more than the market, while others fluctuate less than the market. But on the whole, the market is mainly responsible for the change of the price of each stock and has a decisive influence. Therefore, it is necessary to link the prediction of individual stocks with the prediction of the whole stock market and compare them with each other to improve the accuracy of individual stock price prediction.