Is there really only 138 days left in the house price crash?
Is there really only 138 days left in the house price crash? According to an expert report, the birth rate in the 1990s has dropped by nearly half compared with that in the 1980s. There are three consequences. First, the number of workers has been greatly reduced and the bargaining power has been improved. At the same time, it also triggered a wave of salary increase, rising manufacturing costs and losing export competitiveness. Second, the real estate market just needs to decrease, and the chain effect also appears. Heavy industries such as steel and cement are sluggish, resulting in a large number of overcapacity and losses. Third, the wealth effect is reduced, and the investable faucet in the real estate market is slowly tightening. We can find that with the gradual rise of housing prices, it is increasingly divorced from some basic practical needs. At the same time, more and more people firmly believe that house prices will go up forever, and all their wealth will be bet on it. Some people even choose to borrow money to buy a house, and the crisis will approach step by step.
At the same time, at the peak of the real estate bubble, when the whole society is discussing the house, the party is also discussing it and the media is also discussing it. Even some of the most rational people are buying houses like crazy. We can find that every time the bubble bursts, it is closely related to "raising interest rates". At the same time, every time the interest rate rises, it will take away some money. After many times in a row, everyone is in trouble. We should understand that the real estate crash is terrible because its market value will occupy a certain proportion in the wealth of the whole country. Under normal circumstances, real estate can be leveraged through loans, and the total market value is usually 2-3 times of the national GDP. Some people's wealth accounts for about half of the total wealth of society. Relatively speaking, the total market value of the stock market is usually only five to ten times that of the former, and there are even fewer markets for bond market, futures market and collectible market.
It's also important. The upstream and downstream industrial chain of real estate involves a wide range, in which related investment will account for about half of a country's total social investment. Not only some brick movers, but also some coal diggers, some shipbuilders and iron ore transporters, some furniture and curtains, and even some Shaxian snacks serving transport drivers on the side of national roads will be tightly buckled by an invisible chain. Of course, the longer the house price rises, the more people will firmly believe that "the house price will always rise". There are probably two supporting arguments. First, the government will not allow the real estate to collapse; Second, house prices have risen for nearly 20 years. If it takes another 20 years to collapse, it's not that important. Generally speaking, too many asset prices will rise and fall, and commodity futures will also fall. The stock market has gone up and down several times, and only the real estate industry has been experiencing a slow bull. Therefore, many people are more and more willing to put all their assets into this seemingly only safe haven, which will also promote the further skyrocketing housing prices. At the same time, the faster the house price rises, the more irrational people will be, fearing that they can no longer afford to buy a house. So many people are willing to pay the down payment by borrowing money and mortgage, and be a happy person with housing pain. At present, the rental-to-sale ratio of house prices is getting higher and higher. Just like the stock market, the average profit rate of cities is rising, and the whole society will fall into fanaticism.