However, after the Spring Festival, this round of liquor market callback, many investors regard the callback as an opportunity to bargain-hunting. After all, before the Spring Festival, all the major funds were heavily stocked with liquor. After the holiday, the media and research reports also sang bad wine to varying degrees. Unexpectedly, liquor is getting lower and lower.
Traders have more or less had this experience: when they are in excellent shape, they regard the callback as an opportunity to get on the bus again, and then they fall and add positions. Even if there is a short signal during the period, they will actively or passively look for good news to enhance their confidence in holding positions and consciously filter out some negative factors, which is called confirmation bias in behavioral finance.
This uncertainty deviation will make 10% people let heaven and 90% people go to hell. Imagine that at the beginning, it was just a light warehouse, and as a result, it was added layer by layer and evolved into a heavy position. Huge floating losses will make people feel uncomfortable, and subsequent wrong operations will only make mistakes bigger and bigger. But we must also admit that a good trader needs this kind of confirmation bias. The difference between a good trader and leek is that liquor is bought before it goes up and sold when it goes up, while leek is operated in the opposite way.
Before the Spring Festival, I gave a risk warning to a few gay stock speculators. How ruthless the ridicule was at that time, and how helpless the quilt cover is today.
No one can learn a skill that will benefit you for life for free, and the necessary tuition fees must be paid. After paying the tuition, we should study harder and learn more financial tools. If you sell A50 futures, buy A50 put options, or short A50 derivatives when you bargain-hunting liquor, this round of bargain-hunting cannot become bargain-hunting. After all, there are tools to hedge your exposure.
Take a warning from those who have not been robbed, study harder and summarize more, and wish us to copy the bottom several times in the future and not be robbed.