1. Calculation of turnover rate
This is the most direct and effective method to calculate the turnover rate. Stocks with active low-level transactions, high turnover rate and little increase in share price are usually absorbed by bookmakers. The greater the turnover rate here, the more attractive the main attraction is.
And "price" seem to be a pair of little brothers who are not to be outdone. As long as "quantity" comes first, "price" will keep up with the pace of "quantity", and investors can temporarily pay attention to how "price" lags behind "quantity".
The calculation formula of turnover rate is: turnover rate = volume/circulation X 100%. In order to calculate the turnover rate from the time when the dealer started to build a position to the time when it started to pull up, it is first necessary to confirm the time when the dealer started to build a position. Reference week k
The K-line moving average system of the line chart has changed from short position to long position, which proves that there is banker's intervention. The golden fork of the weekly MACO indicator can be regarded as a sign that Yingjia has started to build positions and is the starting point for calculating the turnover rate.
Generally, when the stock price rises, the dealer's turnover ratio is about 30%, and when the stock price falls, the dealer's ratio is about 20%. However, when the stock price rises, the volume will increase and the volume will decrease. Assuming that the increase and decrease of trading volume is 2: 1, we can draw the following inferences: assuming that the trading volume is 200% when it rises, and it should be 100% when it falls, and the total turnover rate during this period is 300%, we can conclude that the banker's position during this period is 200% × 30.
Its position is only 40%, that is, the position it changes hands every time is 40%/300 %×100% =13.3%. From the week of MACD indicator Golden Cross to the week you calculated, you can get the turnover rate during this period by adding up the turnover of all weeks and dividing it by the circulation disk, and then multiply this turnover rate by 13.3%, and the figure obtained is the degree of control of the dealer.
The turnover rate of mid-line bookmakers should be between 300% and 450%. Only when the dealer has enough turnover can he attract enough chips. Generally speaking, when the total turnover rate reaches 200%. At this time, the banker will speed up the financing and increase the position, because there is no low-priced chip, which is a good opportunity for short-term intervention.
When the total turnover rate reaches 300%, the dealer has basically absorbed enough chips, and then the dealer will start to quickly pull up or forcibly wash the dishes. It is necessary to grasp the intention and trend of the main force from the handicap and avoid blindly rushing from short-term trading to mid-line shareholding.
In the usual watch, we can track and analyze those stocks whose turnover rate exceeds 300% at the low level, and then grasp the best opportunity to intervene by combining their daily K-line, trading volume and some technical indicators. I believe there will be a thick report.
As for the cost, we can use the lowest price plus the highest price in the calculation period and divide it by 2, which is the cost area of Yingjia. The banker's first goal is150% of the cost (50%+1).
2. Judge according to the length of the absorption cycle of the goods.
For stocks with obvious absorption period, the simple algorithm is to multiply the daily trading volume of the absorption period by the absorption period, and the waiting volume of the dealer can be roughly estimated. Banker's position = delivery period × daily turnover (ignoring retail purchases)
. The longer the delivery cycle, the greater the dealer's waiting ability; The greater the daily turnover, the more the dealers suck in goods. Therefore, if investors see the long-term sideways consolidation of stocks after listing, it is usually the dark horse that eats grass silently. Some new shares have not been fully absorbed, and its market is unsustainable.
3. According to the performance of the stock in the market consolidation period.
It is difficult to clearly define the absorption period of some stocks when the absorption period is not obvious, or when Zhuangzi makes a comeback, or when the banker pulls it, or when it falls. The positions of these stock makers can be judged by their performance during the consolidation period.
4. According to the situation of heavy volume in the rising process.
Generally speaking, as the stock price rises, the volume of transactions will increase simultaneously. As the stock price of some bookmakers rises, the trading volume will decrease, and the stock price often rises and then rises. For these stocks, it is important to emphasize the potential rather than the price. The dealer holds a lot of chips, which can be held all the time and then bet a lot. If it is necessary to calculate the dealer's waiting capacity more accurately, I can use the "sum and average method" summed up by my years of experience, and the error is very small.
The first step is to calculate the internal and external disk statistics of real-time transactions.
The formula is as follows: the banker's purchase amount on the same day = (outer disk 1/2+ inner disk110)/2, and then accumulated for several days, the transaction volume reaches at least 100%. That's enough. It usually takes 60- 120 trading days. Because the opening period of a band dealer is generally about 55 days. This formula requires investors to make tireless statistical analysis of the target stock every day. After a long period of empirical statistics, the accuracy is extremely high, and the error rate is usually less than 10%.
The second step, for stocks with obvious bottom cycle, our experience is to estimate the banker's position by multiplying the daily turnover of the bottom cycle by the bottom running time. Banker's position = active buying amount in the bottom cycle (ignoring the buying amount of retail investors). The longer the bottom cycle, the bigger the dealer's position; The larger the active buying volume, the more the dealers will absorb the goods.
Therefore, if investors observe the long-term sideways consolidation of stocks at the bottom, it is usually because funds are quietly absorbed. In order to reduce the purchase cost, the dealer constantly cleans short-term customers by throwing high and sucking low; There will still be a small amount of long-term funds involved.
Therefore, during this period, the goods absorbed by dealers only reached 1/3- 1/4 of the total turnover. Therefore, the "active buying volume" after ignoring the retail buying volume can be settled as: total trading volume × 1/4, and the active buying volume can be settled as 1/3 or 1/4 of the total trading volume.
Formula 2 is as follows: banker's position = total turnover of the stage 1/3( 1/4), which can be confirmed with a lower amount for the sake of prudence.
In the third step, there are stocks with active transactions and high turnover rate, but the stock price has not increased much (the standard is set below 50%, preferably below 30%). Usually, dealers are sucking goods. The greater the turnover rate here, the more sufficient the banker's financing will be, and investors can focus on stocks whose "price" temporarily lags behind "quantity".
Our experience is that the turnover rate is based on 50%, and every time the stock price moves through a multiple stage, such as 2, 3 and 4 times, it will enter a new stage, which also indicates that the banker's position will change, and the banker's position will be calculated by using the turnover rate.
Formula 3 is as follows: the calculation result of the circulation of individual stocks × (the turnover rate of individual stocks in a certain period-the turnover rate of the market in the same period) divided by 3.
The practical significance of this formula is that the banker's funds exceed the turnover rate of the market (that is, the average purchase amount), which is usually the intervention of foresight funds and generally applies to the long-term decline of unpopular stocks. Therefore, once the banker continues to absorb unpopular stocks, we can relatively easily calculate the positions held by the banker.
Finally, in order to ensure the accuracy of the calculation, the results of the above three formulas are averaged, and the final result is the number of positions held by the dealer.
Risk disclosure: This information does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should not substitute such information for their independent judgment, or make decisions only based on such information. It does not constitute any trading operation and does not guarantee any income. If you operate by yourself, please pay attention to position control and risk control.