Black Swan Before black swans were discovered in Australia, Europeans before17th century thought that swans were all white. But with the appearance of the first black swan, this unshakable belief collapsed. The existence of the black swan symbolizes an unpredictable and rare event, which is unexpected, but it has changed everything.
Humans always believe in experience too much, but they don't know that the appearance of a black swan is enough to subvert everything. However, whether in the expectation of the stock market, the decision-making of the government or the simple choices of ordinary people, the black swan is unpredictable. The September 1 1 incident, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the snowstorm in China all confirmed this point.
Related events:
Titanic:
At that time, the largest luxury passenger ship in the world was called "unsinkable dream passenger ship". No one thought it would sink. It sailed from Southampton, England to new york on April 19 12, but it sank on the fourth night of its maiden voyage because it hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic. Due to the lack of enough lifeboats, 1500 people were buried at the bottom of the sea in this "black swan incident", which has become the most famous shipwreck so far.
Financial storm:
Long-term capital management companies have established a complex quantitative model based on historical data, thinking that interest rates in emerging markets will decrease and interest rates in developed countries will go in the opposite direction, so they buy a large number of emerging market bonds and short US Treasury bonds. To everyone's surprise, in August 1998, 1998, Russia announced the devaluation of the ruble and delayed the repayment of its foreign debt for three months. As a result, Russian national debt depreciated sharply and completely lost its liquidity.
From the Russian financial turmoil in May to the total collapse in September, the well-known hedge fund's net asset value dropped by 90% in just 150 days, with a huge loss of $4.3 billion, leaving only $500 million, which was on the verge of bankruptcy. The sharp depreciation of Russian national debt is a black swan that no one can foresee, which once again confirms this view: financial markets are unprepared for unpredictable emergencies.