The fluctuation of spot crude oil is mainly related to the following factors: (1) The commodity attribute of oil-the relationship between supply and demand determines the trend of oil price and the long-term trend of crude oil price, mainly because of the fundamental factors of crude oil supply and demand. Because crude oil is a non-renewable resource and the short-term supply elasticity of crude oil is small, the most important factor affecting crude oil price is the world economic development that determines the demand for crude oil without the discovery of new large-scale oil fields and the emergence of major technological innovations. (2) Oil inventory-affecting oil price fluctuation expectations 1. What is oil inventory? Petroleum inventory is divided into commercial inventory and strategic reserve. The main purpose of commercial inventory is to ensure the efficient operation of enterprises and prevent the potential shortage of crude oil supply under the seasonal fluctuation of oil demand; 2. Oil inventory and oil price The influence of oil inventory on oil price is complicated. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory and reduce current supply, thus stimulating the spot price to rise and reducing the spot price difference of futures; When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce the commercial inventory and increase the current supply, which leads to the decline of the spot price and a reasonable price difference with the futures price. (3) Oil production cost As a non-renewable energy source, oil production cost will affect producers' intertemporal production allocation decisions, thus affecting market supply and indirectly causing oil price fluctuations. (IV) Exchange rate factor Since international crude oil transactions are mainly priced in US dollars, the US dollar exchange rate is also one of the important factors that affect the rise and fall of crude oil prices. When the dollar appreciates, the international prices of raw materials for commodities such as gold, oil and copper are under downward pressure. On the contrary, when the dollar depreciates, the price of such goods will rise. (V) World Economic Development Global economic growth will affect oil prices by changing the demand in the oil market. There is a strong positive correlation between economic growth and oil demand growth. The trend of oil price is very consistent with the trend of GDP in the United States. The global economic situation also plays a vital role in the change of oil prices. In 2008, the global economic crisis led to a sharp drop in oil prices, and then with the recovery of the global economy, oil prices continued to rise. When the global economy is booming, people will increase their investment in industry and the demand for oil and other resources will also increase. At the same time, people's quality of life will continue to improve, and the increasing popularity of cars and household appliances will also increase the consumption of oil, thus increasing the demand for oil and leading to an increase in oil prices. Similarly, when the economy is depressed, the demand for oil decreases, which makes the oil price fall. (VI) Development of alternative energy As can be seen from the energy consumption structure chart, up to now, oil consumption still ranks first. Oil cannot be replaced by other resources in the short term, and the demand for oil will remain at a high level in the short term. (VII) Emergencies and Climatic Conditions In addition to the attributes of general commodities, oil also has the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and the situation. In recent years, with the development of political multipolarization, economic globalization and production internationalization, competing for oil resources and controlling the oil market have become important reasons for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices. The tense geopolitics has strengthened the expectation of supply contraction in the international oil market. Geopolitical factors such as terrorist attacks on oil facilities, strikes by oil workers and political turmoil in oil-producing countries will all have an impact on international oil prices.

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