Bafeit model has caused losses to hundreds of millions of China shareholders.
Since 1989, it has been reported that Buffett earned $42.9 billion from 100 through the stock market and other investments, making him the richest man in the world. It has a far-reaching impact on China's stock investors and caused great waves. Within a few years, the Bafeite stock trading mode in China stock market has become the main tone for China investors to invest in the stock market.
Buffett's main way to invest in the stock market is value investment, that is, picking stocks according to the fundamentals of listed companies, holding shares for half a year or several years after buying, and selling them after making profits. This way is also the main investment way in the United States. Therefore, under the influence of Buffett, coupled with the China media's vigorous promotion of value investment, and in the bull market in 2006 and 2007, many examples of long-term shareholding have gained huge profits. Therefore, buying one or two stocks and holding them for a long time has become the main investment method for investors. Recent statistics show that 96% of accounts have become zombie accounts, which means that 96% of accounts have stopped holding shares. "Leave the stock to the grandson." "Whoever is strict, who earns more." "How can you get out after losing so much?" ..... and so on, all these show that long-term stock trading is still the mainstream.
First, the China stock market is not suitable for holding shares for a long time, and many listed companies have no investment value.
As we know, at present, there are more than 800 companies waiting in line for listing in China stock market every day. Why do they try to go public at all costs, just for financing? Is the cost of listing really lower than that of loans?
You can find such a "satisfactory answer" by searching Baidu.
Because the listing of the company can raise the funds needed for the development of the company, and at the same time, the equity of the major shareholder can be sold in the secondary market after 3 years, which is of great benefit to the shareholders of the company. Some companies do not fully meet the listing requirements, and major shareholders will beautify the packaging enterprises in order to go public, even at the expense of illegal fraud (and its illegal cost is too low).
In order to go public or avoid being delisted, some methods of fraud at present are as follows:
Method 1: Manipulate abnormal profits and losses, sell children to survive, and sell subsidiaries at a high premium to act as normal profits and losses.
Method 2: control and confirm income. If the accounts received in advance are included in the income, it shows that the annual income has increased.
Method 3: increase income falsely, join hands with other companies, make false orders to increase income first, and then return it after the meeting.
Means 4: Adjust the impairment of assets, reduce the value of fixed assets, and increase the income relatively, such as the technique of *ST Qinling Shell Protection.
Means 5: cost adjustment+inventory manipulation: increase the inventory price and improve the book of false profits. For example, the cicada shell of vanadium and titanium in Panzhihua Iron and Steel Company.
According to statistics, there are 2 companies with positive earnings per share in 20 12 years, and their average growth rates are as follows
20 10- 17
20 1 1 year -26
20 12-37
There are 3 10 companies with negative earnings per share, and the average earnings are:
20 10- 12
20 1 1 year -23
2044-44
So there is no significant difference between the two. In other words, it is not the profit-making companies whose share prices have fallen less, but the loss-making companies whose share prices have fallen much.
On the other hand, due to the long-term large-scale expansion, additional issuance and non-reduction of A shares, the growth rate of total funds entering the stock market has not changed much, and the company's dividends are relatively small. It has caused the A-shares to fall year after year, losing the value of long-term investment, and also causing losses for hundreds of millions of investors.
Second, investors in China lack risk education and investment education.
According to statistics, on the first day of IPO, the secondary market often rose by tens to hundreds of points, and many retail investors also participated in the bridge. The price of individual stocks continues to soar and the turnover is huge, indicating that many retail investors are involved. In the end, only a few people make money, and most retail investors are trapped in it, just like the "pyramid scheme" we are seeing now. On the other hand, our stock market has been very depressed recently, but there are many stocks with daily limit and many stocks with soaring prices, which shows that many people like to chase up and kill down, and so on. Many aspects show that investors in China lack risk education, stock trading knowledge and quality education. From this point of view, the unhealthy development of the stock market can't be blamed only on corrupt officials. The more important reason is that our shareholders always want to get rich, and they always want to get rich year after year. As a result, they always take advantage of small things and suffer big losses, which facilitates the corruption of some authorities and provides opportunities for interest groups to circle money. Investors' fear and greed were fully exploited by them. Just like you put a hundred dollars in a public place, many small things will happen.
Some people on the Internet touted the recommendation of bull stocks, guaranteeing 5- 15% per month. In fact, many people believed it, and they were cheated of tens of thousands of yuan in membership fees, which caused heavy losses. All these show that our investors lack risk awareness.
Third, Buffett model is not suitable for China A shares.
China's A-share market has been stumbling for decades since 1980s. Compared with the mature national securities market which has developed for hundreds of years, China's stock market is still too young. A lot has happened in just a few decades. The earliest group of securities workers and related companies, few people really survived today. The five-year bear market made most investors leave the stock market in grief and indignation, and also made a large number of companies engaged in securities disappear from people's sight overnight.
Buffett is a special person. He has been involved in the stock market all his life and is a professional speculator. Besides, he is in a mature American stock market and he has his fundamental research team. These are not comparable to part-time retail investors.
Moreover, the rules of the stock market are changing, and the conditions for making money this time will become the driving force for losing money next time. The method of holding shares for a long time has locked the chips for them, which is only the condition that the major shareholders do not arbitrage and reduce their holdings at high prices and low prices, and it is only the factor that they do not cause a big drop in bulk shipments.
If most of our investors adopt short-term or band operation to avoid giving them money every day, then the China stock market has been running at a low price, which will greatly increase the cost of their money and the risk of sitting in the village will be infinitely amplified. Companies that don't pay dividends will automatically withdraw from the market because of losses, and companies that are ready to go public will lose the motivation to go public because of financing risks, thus curbing the excessive expansion of the China stock market and making the China stock market gradually move towards a healthy development path through market regulation.
In short, it is Buffett's influence that leads many investors to the loss path of "value investment". Different times, different stock markets. China stock market has the characteristics of China stock market. Just like in recent years, the stock indexes of neighboring countries and regions have gone up, except China. Therefore, value investment is reasonable and logical. It looks like a needle in the sea of stocks, but it is actually just an erratic straw.
Of course, we don't absolutely deny value investment, but we ordinary investors don't have the ability and energy to really invest in value. Who can clearly study whether a listed company has a future? Who can guarantee that their annual report will not be faked at all, and who among us retail investors has so much energy and time? PetroChina is a blue-chip company in China, but it has fallen from 48 yuan to 8.58 now. China Life Insurance is a leader in the domestic insurance industry, which has dropped from 75.98 to 65,438+08.08 now. China Railway Construction Corporation is the leader in the domestic railway construction industry, but it has dropped from 12 yuan to 5.58 ... and so on since its listing. Many facts prove that unless you have the ability to know the inside information of the company, unless you have strong power.
We should strive to give up the erratic straw of "value investment". Give up long-term shareholding, fight guerrilla warfare, fight for a place, and try not to empty your guns (everyone thinks you can refer to the Eagle Stock Trading Law at the entry and exit points). Over time, the China stock market will embark on the road of healthy development, and each of our shareholders can easily make money.