Influencing factors:
Dollar trend
The exchange rate of US dollar is also one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold price. The impact of the dollar on the gold market mainly has two aspects:
First, the dollar is the price mark currency in the international gold market, so it is negatively related to the price of gold. Assuming that the value of gold itself has not changed, the dollar has fallen and the price of gold has risen;
On the other hand, gold is an alternative investment tool for dollar assets. In fact, in the past few years, the price of gold has been rising continuously, and one of the main factors is that the dollar has fallen sharply for three consecutive years.
According to the historical statistics of gold, the dollar is negatively correlated with gold. From the data of the past ten years, the relationship between the US dollar and gold is getting closer and closer to-1%, so the change of the US dollar exchange rate is an important reference when analyzing the trend of gold price.
However, in some special periods, especially when the trend of gold is very strong or weak, the price of gold will also operate independently and will not be affected by the trend of the US dollar.
political situation
Historically, gold has been the best hedge. The so-called cannon ringing gold is a perfect interpretation of the safe-haven value of gold. Any war or political turmoil will often push up the price of gold, and emergencies will often make the price of gold soar sharply in a short period of time.
inflation
As the only non-credit currency in the world, gold is different from paper money, deposits and other currencies, and has extremely high value. Unlike other currencies, which are only representatives of value, its own value can be ignored.
In extreme cases, money will be equivalent to paper, but gold will never lose its value as a precious metal. Therefore, it can be said that gold can be regarded as a representative of eternal value. The most obvious embodiment of this significance is the investment value of gold in the era of inflation-paper money will depreciate because of inflation, but gold will not.
Supply factor
The fluctuation of gold price is based on the relationship between supply and demand. If the output of gold increases significantly, the price of gold will be affected and fall back. In addition, the application of new gold mining technology, the discovery of new mines and the sale of gold by the central bank will all put pressure on the price of gold. If you enter a big gold consuming country such as India, there will be miners at the peak of gold consumption or during a long strike, and the overall supply is less than demand, and the price of gold will benefit from the increase.
In recent years, the proportion of gold investment demand in the market is increasing, and its impact on gold is more flexible and sensitive. Therefore, every move in the financial derivatives market is more important to the trend of gold price.
Demand rate
(1) Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc. ).
Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine, building decoration and so on, although the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes appear constantly, the demand for gold is still on the rise because of its special metal properties.
In some areas, local factors have a great influence on the demand for gold. For example, due to the financial crisis, India and Southeast Asian countries, which have always had a great demand for gold jewelry, have greatly reduced their gold imports since 1997. According to the data of the World Gold Council, the demand for gold in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea decreased by 7 1%, 28%, 10% and 9% respectively.
According to statistics, the per capita consumption of gold in China in 2 1 century is only 0.2g, which is far from the world's major gold consuming countries. However, the per capita consumption of gold in India is 0.85g, which is more than four times that of China. Judging from China's economic development and per capita income, China is much higher than Indian. Therefore, China's gold consumption potential is huge, and the prospect is very considerable.
(2) the need to preserve value.
Gold reserves have always been regarded by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly for the purpose of preserving value under inflation. During the economic downturn, because gold is safer than monetary assets, the demand for gold increases and the price of gold rises.
(3) Speculative demand.
According to the international and domestic situation, speculators use the fluctuation of gold price in the gold market and the trading system in the gold futures market to "short" or "replenish" gold in large quantities, artificially creating the illusion of gold demand. In the gold market, almost every plunge is related to hedge fund companies borrowing short-term gold to sell in the spot gold market and establishing a large number of short positions on the COMEX gold futures exchange.