With the deepening of the marketization of rice production and circulation and the acceleration of the process, the rice market is no longer a separate interpretation, which is not only influenced by national policy factors, supply and demand of early indica rice and other fundamental factors, but also closely related to the national macroeconomic development, linked to the prices of other agricultural products, and influenced by uncontrollable factors such as weather, natural disasters and psychology. Supply and demand are the fundamental factors that determine the price of rice.

The supply side is mainly composed of three aspects:

(1) Pre-inventory. It is an important part of the total output. The amount of pre-inventory reflects the tight supply, rising prices in short supply and abundant prices in short supply.

(2) Current output. At present, the yield is mainly affected by planting area and unit yield. The main factors affecting the planting area are the comparative income of farmers and other agricultural products, national agricultural policies and other factors, and the main factors affecting the output per unit area are weather and scientific and technological level. It is necessary to study the changes of rice planting area, climate and crop production conditions, production costs and government agricultural policies.

(3) the import volume of commodities. The actual import volume of commodities often changes for political or economic reasons. Therefore, we should know and master the changes of international situation, price level, import policy and import volume as soon as possible.

Demand: usually consists of domestic consumption, export volume and final commodity balance.

(1) Domestic consumption. It is not a fixed constant, but varies under the influence of many factors. It mainly includes: changes in consumer purchasing power, changes in population growth and structure, and government income and employment policies.

(2) export volume. Under the condition of a certain output, the increase of export volume will reduce the supply in the domestic market; On the contrary, a decrease in export volume will increase domestic supply.

(3) Commodity balance at the end of the period. This is one of the most important data to analyze the trend of futures commodity prices. If the inventory increases at the end of the year, it means that the supply of goods exceeds demand and the futures price may fall; On the contrary, it will rise.

From the production situation over the years, due to the particularity of early indica rice varieties, agricultural policies, planting structure adjustment, scientific and technological progress and other factors have great influence on the area and yield of early indica rice, which correspondingly causes the price fluctuation of early indica rice. In addition, the change of early indica rice inventory, the rotation of reserve rice, the quantity and price of grain sold in the market also affect the supply of early indica rice, thus affecting the price of early indica rice.

From the consumption point of view, China's early indica rice is mainly used for rations, national reserves, industry and feed consumption, showing a steady growth momentum as a whole. As a large number of early indica rice are used for storage and storage, industrial and feed consumption has also increased rapidly in recent years, which has obvious impact on the market, especially the demand for conventional varieties is in short supply, and there is still room for price increase. In addition, festivals and group consumption effects, changes in import and export volume will also affect the staged demand of early indica rice market. The national grain industry policy affects or even dominates the supply, demand and price of early indica rice.

First, various policies for benefiting farmers have improved farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, promoted grain production, ensured grain planting area and output, and also formed a strong support for the area and output of early indica rice;

Secondly, the minimum purchase price policy of early indica rice and macro-control policies such as public auction and reserve basically dominate the price trend of early indica rice.

In order to stabilize the production of early indica rice and protect farmers' interests, the state has implemented the policy of minimum purchase price of early indica rice in Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei and Anhui provinces since 2004, and Guangxi was also included in the policy in 2008. In 2005 and 2006, because the market price was lower than the minimum purchase price, the policy was introduced for two consecutive years, which achieved obvious market support effect and protected farmers' interests.