Futures prices are combined with trading volume and positions. The long-term price trend of futures commodities is determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Short-term fluctuations are determined by the number of transactions, that is, buying is greater than selling, and selling is greater than buying. For technology traders, it is very important to pay attention to the volume of real-time transactions.
Volume refers to the total number of contracts bought or sold in a period of time. In China, the sum of buying and selling is used to calculate the transaction volume. Open contracts refer to the number of contracts that have not been hedged and delivered at the close of a certain day. A contract must have a buyer and a seller, so the number of long positions is equal to the number of short positions.
If both buyers and sellers establish new positions, the positions will increase. If both sides close their positions, the positions will be reduced. If one party opens a new trading position and the other party closes the original trading position, the position remains unchanged. By analyzing the change of positions, we can know whether the funds flow into or out of the market. Changes in trading volume and positions will affect futures prices, and changes in futures prices will also cause changes in trading volume and positions. Therefore, analyzing the changes of the three is conducive to correctly predicting the trend of futures prices.
Kuanke Online Bian Xiao believes that there are four relationships among futures trading volume, positions and prices: 1, and the trading volume and positions increase with the increase of prices. The increase in trading volume and positions shows that the number of contracts bought and sold by new traders exceeds that of original traders. The rise in market prices also shows that the market is selling gas under pressure, and traders in technologically strong markets enter the market to do more.
2. When the price falls, the volume and positions increase. This situation shows that more new traders enter the market, and among the new traders, the seller's power overwhelms the buyer, so the market is in a technical weak market and the price will fall further.
3. Trading volume and positions decrease as prices fall. The decrease in trading volume and positions shows that the original traders bought and sold more contracts in the market to close their positions than the new traders did. The price drop also shows that the original buyer's power exceeds the original seller's power when selling and closing positions, that is, the bulls are more willing to leave, rather than the market actively increasing short positions. Therefore, open positions and falling prices indicate that the market is in a technically strong market and the bulls are closing their positions.
4. As the price rises, the turnover and positions decrease. The decrease in trading volume and positions shows that the original trader is hedging the contract, while the increase in price shows that the original seller in the market is more energetic than the original buyer in closing the position. Therefore, this situation shows that the market is in a technically weak market, mainly reflected in short positions, rather than actively buying more.
5. With the increase of trading volume, the price rises, but the position decreases. It shows that both short sellers and short sellers are closing their positions in large quantities, and the price will soon fall. The price rises with the decrease of open contracts and the increase of trading volume, indicating that many parties begin to close their positions and the price is expected to fall (trading volume increases, positions decrease, prices rise and are expected to fall).