USDA report is an evaluation and adjustment report of the US Department of Agriculture on crop yield, consumption, inventory, sown area, yield and other related information data. It is a relatively important official report, and it is also an important report that many investors refer to when investing in the agricultural futures market. Therefore, it is very important for investors to correctly interpret this report. The author believes that when interpreting the USDA report, we should not only "look forward and look back", but also understand (restore) the expected degree of data changes.
First, "looking ahead"-comparing the forecast data of previous reports.
The following is a concrete comparison between the report on June 30th and previous market forecast data (unit: billion pu):
1. Grain quarterly inventory
The average forecast range of this report is the inventory of last quarter and the inventory of the same period last year.
Corn 4.028 3.925 3.550-4.326 6.859 3.533
Soybean 0.676 0.669 0.615-0.7431.4281.092
Wheat 0.306 0.278 0.247-0.410.75438+000.456
The quarterly inventory of corn increased by 14%, the quarterly inventory of soybean decreased by 38%, and the total inventory of wheat decreased by 33%. (Do it yourself! )
2. Planting area (unit: million mu)
The second quarter report released by the US Department of Agriculture on June 30th can be said to have an impact on the soybean planting area this year. The data shows that the soybean planting area has decreased from 74.79 million mu in March to 74.53 million mu. From this figure alone, the reduced area is not large, but it is important to predict the harvested area. This report predicts that the soybean acquisition area in the new season will be 721.2000 mu, a decrease of1.6800 mu compared with 73.8 million mu in March, which will reduce the US soybean harvest rate to a low level of 96.8%. According to this data, the inventory consumption rate of American soybeans in 2008/2009 was 3.46%, which was 4.2% higher than this year. (Connect! )
Second, "looking back"-comparison with the market changes after the evaluation date of the report
The torrential rains since June have caused many areas in the Mississippi River basin, the largest river in the United States, to burst their banks, inundate farmland and even destroy bridges. The main disaster areas include Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas and Minnesota. The hardest hit area of this flood is mainly the midwest of the United States, which is the main planting area of soybeans and corn in the United States. Among them, the planting area of corn and soybean in Iowa accounts for 15.3% and 13. 1% of the total area of the United States, Illinois 14.6% and1.8%, and Minnesota's 8.8%.
The flood happened at the critical time of maize and soybean planting. According to the USDA report, as of June 15, the progress of soybean planting in the United States was only 84%, far behind the 95% in the same period last year and the five-year average of 94%. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that the soybean planting area in the United States this year is about 74.8 million acres. Delayed sowing of soybeans poses a serious threat to soybean production, so it is difficult for American soybean production to reach the 4 1.2 acre/bushel predicted by the Ministry of Agriculture in 2008/2009. The emergence of floods will make the tight supply of corn and soybeans in 2008/2009 even more tense.
The second quarter report of USDA is based on the evaluation of market conditions before June 1 2008. The report was released on June 30th, but during the period from June/KLOC-0 to June 30th, the market changed greatly, which had a great impact on the data and needed to be taken into account. During this period, a major flood disaster occurred in the midwest of the United States, which will change the soybean planting area and future output in the United States (the possibility of reducing production is high). Therefore, when the second quarter report of USDA, which was relatively negative compared with market expectations, was released on June 30, the US soybean did not fall back, but the shock continued to rise, hitting a new contract high.
USDA admits that it is difficult to assess the loss in the report at the end of June, and additional investigation is being conducted, and another report reflecting the flood impact will be released in August. It is expected that soybean will remain relatively firm, mainly due to shock, when the harvest area is greatly reduced.
Third, the understanding and understanding of the "expected degree of realization" of data changes.
USDA estimates global soybean supply and demand balance in June (unit: million tons)
In June, USDA6' s report first estimated the global soybean balance in 2008/2009, which increased the ending inventory by 1 15000 tons to 504 10000 tons and decreased the beginning inventory by 13 18000 tons. The increase in inventory at the end of 2008/2009 mainly includes. Due to the high price of soybean at present, it is likely to attract more planting area, so the market generally expects that the planting area of soybean will increase greatly in the future, thus increasing the output next year.
The initial inventory was greatly lowered in the report, indicating that the market demand is strong and it is not easy to bearish on the market. The sharp increase in output and ending inventory is based on the expected sharp increase in planting area. If the planting area does not increase significantly or the output decreases in the future, the ending inventory data will be reversed. Therefore, the analysis of various data changes in the monthly supply and demand report, such as opening inventory, output, import and export volume, domestic crushing volume, ending inventory, etc., should compare whether the changes in futures prices overreact to this "expected data change".
In a word, investors should make a scientific and reasonable quantitative analysis based on the data reported by USDA, horizontally and vertically, and combined with the changes of futures prices. The so-called horizontal analysis refers to the comparison of the data reported in the current period and the previous period, and the vertical analysis refers to the comparison of the data reported in the current period and the same period of last year. Moreover, we should fully understand the market information and state at the time of the report, and analyze whether the changes in futures prices have overdrawn (or not fully reflected) the information and data provided by the report. For example, USDA's second quarter report is based on the evaluation of market conditions before June 1 2008, and the evaluation report on the impact of floods in June will be released in August. This cycle is relatively long, during which factors such as weather will still change, and futures prices will also change at the same time.
The report data of USDA is "static", while the changes of external market information and futures prices are dynamic. When using USDA report, investors should "combine static and dynamic" and compare before and after, so as to make correct analysis and judgment and make more scientific and reasonable investment decisions.