Influencing factors:?
Non-agriculture and unemployment rate
American non-agricultural data and its unemployment rate data are released together, and the two data complement each other, which can often achieve twice the result with half the effort. However, it is often seen that non-agricultural data has three values: the previous value, the predicted value and the actual published value. The previous value is the known actual value published last month and is a basis for this data. On this basis, the forecast value is the market's forecast of the economic development of the United States according to the economic data of the past month, and it is also a numerical forecast of the subsequent non-agricultural data. The forecast value represents the market expectation. Therefore, in order to judge the market reaction through the actual published value, it is necessary to compare the difference between the actual published value and the predicted value to further judge the price trend of natural gas.
The data of agricultural employment population is larger than expected, which indicates that the US economy is recovering and natural gas is bad.
The data of non-agricultural employment population is less than expected, which indicates that the US economy is in recession and natural gas is favored.
The rise and fall of data market depends on the difference of published data. The greater the data difference, the greater the market fluctuation.
Natural gas and American fingers
International energy, precious metals, commodities, etc. Most of them are denominated in dollars. Under normal circumstances, a rising dollar means that these goals will fall; The dollar fell and others rose. For example, 10 dollars can buy 100 cubic meters of natural gas. When the dollar index falls, that is, the dollar depreciates, and 10 can't buy 100 m3 natural gas, it will be profitable, otherwise it will be bad. Simply put, the spot trend of natural gas is inversely proportional to the US dollar. Investors can pay attention to the US dollar index and analyze the trend of natural gas in combination with the market.
Natural gas EIA data
If the change of EIA natural gas inventory increases or exceeds the expected value, the US dollar index will rise, and the US dollar will rise against a basket of currencies (referring to compiling the currencies of several major trading countries into a comprehensive currency index according to the trade ratio, commonly known as a basket of currencies). On the other hand, the change of EIA natural gas inventory is reduced or lower than expected, and the decline of the US dollar index will affect a basket of currencies. This data will have a certain impact on the natural gas market, and investors need to pay close attention to it. Specifically, it should be analyzed in combination with the market of the week or the day. Hao Tian Ba Jin may be able to help you when necessary.
Natural gas and climate
Many countries in Europe and America use oil as heating fuel. Therefore, when the climate changes abnormally, it will cause short-term changes in the demand for fuel oil, thus driving the price changes of petroleum products such as natural gas. In addition, abnormal weather may cause damage to natural gas production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and then affect oil prices.
Supply and demand of natural gas
If supply exceeds demand, price reduction will be bad; if supply exceeds demand, price increase will increase profits.