Among them, urea, as the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer in agricultural production, has the characteristics of high nitrogen content, good instant solubility and convenient use, which can be said to be deeply welcomed by farmers.
Therefore, according to the previous market rules, the demand for urea gradually picked up during spring ploughing, which was generally beneficial to the market. However, the market price of urea was weak, and many domestic markets began to fall, with the price reduction range of about 10-40 yuan/ton.
So what is the reason why urea prices are "falling endlessly"? Spring ploughing production is in full swing all over the country, will the price rise? Let's take a look at the urea market trend forecast in February 2023.
What is the current price of urea?
Henan Province: The price of urea (particle range d 1. 18-3.35mm) in Qinyang City, Jiaozuo City, Henan Province is 2450 yuan/ton; The price of urea in Guanchenghui District, Zhengzhou City, Henan Province is 3000 yuan/ton, etc.
Shanxi Province: The price of urea (particle range d2.00-4.75mm) in Zezhou County, Jincheng City, Shanxi Province is 2450 yuan/ton; The price of urea in Jinyuan District, Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province is 3800 yuan/ton.
Shandong Province: The price of agricultural urea in tianqiao district, Jinan City, Shandong Province is 2780 yuan/ton; The price of urea (large particles, total nitrogen ≥46%) in Dongping County, Tai 'an City, Shandong Province is 3350 yuan/ton; The price of zinc-containing crystalline urea in lanshan district, Linyi City, Shandong Province is 2800 yuan/ton; The price of urea (particle size range of d0.85-2.80mm) in Zhangdian District, Zibo City, Shandong Province is 3500 yuan/ton, etc.
Sichuan Province: The price of urea in Yucheng District, Ya 'an City, Sichuan Province is 2900 yuan/ton; The price of urea in Shuangliu District, Chengdu, Sichuan 1200 yuan/ton; The price of Chongqing Jianfeng series urea (particle range d 1. 18-3.36mm) in Zizhong County, Neijiang City, Sichuan Province is 3,500 yuan/ton.
Guangxi Province: The price of urea (particle range d0.85-2.80mm) in Jiangnan District, Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is 2950 yuan/ton; The price of urea in Luocheng Mulao Autonomous County, Hechi City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is 3,900 yuan/ton; The price of polycarbotitanate double enzyme urea in Lipu City, Guilin City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is 3560 yuan/ton.
Hebei Province: The price of urea (particle range d0.85-2.80mm) in Lingshou County, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province is 3,500 yuan/ton.
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region: The price of urea (net content of 40kg) in Toutunhe District, Urumqi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is 2,000 yuan/ton; Xinjiang urea price 1270 yuan/ton in Kuitun City, Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region: The price of urea in Naiman Banner, Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is 3,500 yuan/ton.
Remarks: The above urea prices are all from the supply hall of Huinong market. These are real-time wholesale quotations (non-market retail prices) for reference only!
What are the reasons for the downward adjustment of urea prices in many places?
1, the market supply exceeds demand
Affected by the price drop in the international urea market, the port goods began to return, and the overall market supply was sufficient. After the year, the operating rate rebounded slowly, which did not support the market enough.
Therefore, when the demand was not realized as expected, the price of urea began to fall.
2. The demand growth is slow
In the early spring of this year, industrial demand and agricultural demand were not well released.
In addition, the current urea inventory is stable, and the price increase is expected to be small. Merchants from all over the world purchase less, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, some businesses can only stimulate the enthusiasm of shipping by slightly lowering the price.
3, the production cost is reduced.
Natural gas is one of the raw materials for urea synthesis, and there is a certain price interaction between them.
It is reported that the price of natural gas in Europe and America has fallen sharply recently, and the production cost of urea has been reduced, which has led to a sharp drop in the international urea price.
Even leaving aside these international gas-fired urea, domestic coal prices have also fallen, which has also dragged down the price center of coal-fired urea.
When the spring ploughing season comes, will urea rise again?
Beginning of spring came very early in February this year, just after beginning of spring, and the temperature was still very low. Spring ploughing production is basically in the deployment stage, and it is expected to wait until the end of February and after March.
By then, the agricultural demand for urea will also usher in the most prosperous period, and the price increase in the peak season has already become the "hidden rule" of the urea market. Even though there is no shortage of urea in the overall market at present, its price is hard to fall in the peak season driven by a large amount of demand.
Therefore, the follow-up spring ploughing is just around the corner, and urea is expected to rise.
However, due to the abundant reserve fertilizer in winter this year, the demand for reserve fertilizer in spring may not be as good as expected before the holiday. The recent "crazy" decline of international urea will also drag down the domestic urea price, so we should pay more attention to the risk of high price.
Moreover, according to many experts' predictions, there is still a risk of further decline in the urea market at least until demand rises at the end of February and buyers' confidence is restored.
Forecast of urea market trend in February 2023
Judging from the current market situation, although the international urea price is bleak, it has little impact on the domestic market. The mainstream market is dominated by narrow fluctuations, and even if there is a decline, it will only drop slightly, rather than the international direct price of urea.
At present, the demand for urea has not risen in February, and it is expected that the market will continue its previous weak market in a short time, but there is no possibility of a sharp drop for the time being.
With the follow-up of spring ploughing reserves, the production of enterprises will recover and improve, and the urea market will be well supported, which is expected to usher in a wave of rising momentum.
It is suggested that you can collect more recent changes in the international raw material market and downstream demand during spring ploughing.
Overall, the recent decline in urea costs, increased supply and sluggish demand for urea are the main reasons for the downward adjustment of urea prices in many markets.
However, compared with the turbulent international market, the domestic urea price is relatively stable, and the follow-up spring ploughing is just around the corner. With the increase of urea demand, the market is further favorable.
However, in the short term, the supply pressure in various production and marketing areas increased in early February, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream traders was poor, and the market trend was mostly weak. I suggest you wait and see more carefully.
Of course, the above market trend forecast is only for reference. How to treat urea as rising or falling in the future? Welcome to leave a message for discussion.