In the news, the 14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum was held in Shanghai International Convention Center and China Financial Information Center on May 25th. Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in his speech that China futures market will introduce more products and trading modes to encourage commercial banks and overseas investors to participate in the domestic market.
According to statistics, from 2065438+200710-April, the domestic primary nickel output and imported metal amount totaled 325500 tons, and the demand for nickel for major stainless steel products reached 340 1000 tons, with a gap of 14600 tons, and the consumption of stainless steel inventory was slow. Domestic ferronickel and electrolytic nickel reduced production, providing support for nickel price. However, Indonesia's nickel export quota, coupled with the weakening demand for stainless steel this year, has led to a downward trend in nickel prices. From a fundamental point of view, it does not support that the futures price is lower than 75,000 yuan/ton for a long time, so this point has strong support and is not easy to break through.
Wu Xiangfeng, a metal researcher at Huatai Futures, said, "After the logic of making up the decline of nickel ore is finished, there is a rebound demand. The main potential driving force for the rebound is the expected start of new stainless steel production capacity. However, due to the seasonal peak season of nickel mine supply, the rebound was suppressed. "
Looking forward to the market outlook, CCB Futures analysts said that due to the expectation of tight supply of nickel ore, the Philippine nickel ore has been delivered normally, and the Indonesian nickel ore will be delivered one after another according to the established procedures. It is expected that the inventory of nickel ore ports will continue to rise. On the demand side, the early release of market demand led to the weakening of stainless steel demand. In May, some stainless steel factories also suffered losses, passively reducing production, and destocking is expected to accelerate. On the whole, due to the recovery of nickel mine supply and the weakening of downstream demand, it is expected that Shanghai Nickel will continue to maintain a weak shock in May.
In terms of domestic mines, the market is still stable and the transaction situation is relatively stable. Recently, domestic mineral prices have been generally stable, and some mineral prices have increased. However, due to the weak shock at the basic level of imported mines, traders are not optimistic about the late trend of the domestic mine market. In terms of imported minerals, the spot price of the port was weakly lowered. Although the steel market price was raised in the early stage, it did not greatly boost the imported ore market, and the steel mills were not willing to purchase and the market inquiry was poor. In addition, the futures and spot markets are dominated by a downward trend, and the mentality of the iron ore market is further frustrated. Traders can only choose to sell at reduced prices. At this stage, steel mills are still cautious in purchasing mentality, willing to reduce prices, and the game between buyers and sellers is obvious. Considering comprehensively, it is expected that the domestic iron ore market will fluctuate in the short term.
According to the research report of Founder Medium-term Metal Building Materials Group, at present, the key to determine the trend of ore price is on the demand side, and the demand for iron ore by steel mills depends on its profitability. Considering that the current rebar inventory is relatively fast, the output will decline in the second half of the year due to environmental impact, and the high profit of short-term thread is expected to continue, which will support the demand for iron ore to some extent. At the same time, with the support of the cost side, although the rebound of mineral prices is relatively weak, the downside is limited, or it will continue to maintain a low volatility trend.