On the evening of 65438+ 10 12, the central bank announced that it would raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. This move has a strong symbolic significance. First, since this year, the central bank has entered the era of conventional credit, and will no longer allow credit to grow as crazy as it did in 2009. Second, the price bubble of capital products will be monitored. After the new year, the credit growth rate is too fast, which will boost the price of capital products to continue to rise. Third, in the trade-off between preventing inflation and stabilizing the economy, the central bank will not sit idly by and watch the inflation risk. The speed of the central bank's action exceeded market expectations, indicating that the tone of the small-step rapid adjustment of monetary policy this year will not waver. The central bank's tight monetary policy is timely and decisive, otherwise China's asset bubble will get out of hand and eventually crush the real economy. In 2009, loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy jointly created the image of China as the locomotive of the global economy, and the national fiscal revenue is expected to reach 684.77 billion yuan, up by 1 1.7% year-on-year. However, loose monetary policy has left serious sequelae. By June 2009 165438+ 10, the national housing price level reached a record high, and the annual sales of first-hand houses and the proportion of investment houses reached a record high. The "three highs" in the real estate market branded the asset bubble on the macro-economic forehead in 2009. The central bank implements a tightening policy in actual operation. The most obvious example is a series of repurchases in the open market. From the end of 2009 to the first week of 20 10, the central bank made a net withdrawal in the open market for 13 weeks, and the accumulated currency recovered reached 85 10/0 billion yuan. 65438+1On October 7, the central bank issued a three-month central bank bill of 60 billion yuan by tender, with an issue price of 99.666 yuan and a yield of 1.3684%. The interest rate of this issue is 4 basis points higher than that of the last issue 1.3280%. At the same time, the central bank also carried out 30 billion yuan 9 1 day repurchase, and the winning bid rate also rose by 3 basis points to 1.36%. This is considered to be a foreshadowing for future interest rate hikes. It is necessary for the central bank to implement further austerity policies as appropriate. As far as China is concerned, the credit growth in the first week after the New Year is extremely fast, which is expected to be between 500 billion and 600 billion. This shows that the currency liquidity has been on the rise since last year, and the heat has not subsided. Commercial bank credit has the inertia of early investment and early benefit, and will not be fundamentally changed because of the central bank's words. As economic rational people, commercial banks, after all, put interests first. However, the price of capital products is in a stalemate, and the real estate market is hesitant. The stock market is poised to fluctuate under the stimulation of stock index futures news. As far as foreign countries are concerned, the European Central Bank adhered to the policy of neutrality in this financial crisis, and its currency circulation was not as good as that of the United States and other countries. Australia, Norway and other resource-rich countries have raised interest rates. India, Vietnam and other countries, both of which are Asian countries, have serious inflation and the prices of agricultural products have risen strongly, so the government has to raise interest rates to suppress them. The year of 20 10 is a year when monetary policies of various countries gradually return to normalization. The aid policy remains unchanged, but monetary easing is loose, loose and loose again, and the austerity policy has its own secrets. For example, Australia and other countries raised interest rates, and the yield of the US bond market rose, while the Bank of China slightly raised the deposit reserve ratio instead of raising interest rates in one step. China's interest rate hike will affect the whole body, mainly considering the influx of hot money caused by the spread with the US dollar and the capital cost of large credit households. Usually the last nuclear weapon is used, and almost all conventional weapons are used except the directional bill. From raising the central bank bill interest rate and credit window guidance to raising the deposit reserve ratio. The sudden increase in the deposit reserve ratio has brought a huge psychological impact to the market, which is brought about by the suddenness of time, not the result of the rapid increase. Raising the deposit reserve can curb credit and reduce the base currency. This time, it will only increase by 50 basis points and recover 290 billion yuan of liquidity, which will not hurt the price of capital products, but it is a strong enough warning to investors-investors, don't act rashly. As far as curbing asset bubbles is concerned, the central bank has done a great thing, which is also a powerful response to the normalization of international monetary policy. As for the impact of raising the deposit reserve ratio on the real estate market, it will be hit again after several heavy losses, although in general, raising interest rates can raise housing prices and highlight the ability of real estate to maintain and increase value. But this time, things are different. After the asset price bubble and before the full inflation of the real economy, the real estate suffered a sap, and the crazy rise of real estate came to an abrupt end at the end of 2009 when buyers queued up all night. The impact on the stock market will not be too great. At present, the stock market is bathed in the sunshine of stock index futures and margin trading. A huge positive news shielded the gradual tightening of the currency, and the capital market embarked on its own development logic, which can temporarily resist the impact of the tightening policy.