1. With the rapid growth of seed cotton and ginned cotton printed on the market, the ex-factory price of S-6 ginning factory has dropped to 70-7 1 cent/pound, and the quotation of OE yarn and C2 1-C40S "futures" yarn in cotton mills has been greatly reduced compared with the quotation of outer yarns in major ports in China (the difference in CNF quotation has reached 0.04-0.05 USD).
2. As the spot price of cotton dropped from 65438 in mid-February, the domestic cotton yarn price gradually weakened from firm. The ex-factory price of cotton yarn of C40S and below in some cotton mills in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang was lowered 100-300 yuan/ton, and the price difference between domestic yarn and imported yarn from India, Pakistan and Vietnam was165438+1month.
Third, the enthusiasm of weaving mills and middlemen to enter the market before the Spring Festival declined. On the one hand, buyers such as the cloth factory have high hopes for the opening of the national reserve cotton warehouse on March 6, 2007, and think that not only the cotton reserve is sufficient, but also the bidding reserve price and actual transaction will be significantly lower than the current cotton spot; On the other hand, since the end of 165438+ 10, the arrival cost of foreign yarns in Hong Kong is relatively high (the CNF contract price of C32S yarns is generally 2.66-2.72 yuan/kg), it is difficult for traders and middlemen to make profits, the shipment slows down, and the phenomenon of occupying funds is prominent.
4. RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly, and the depreciation leads to the continuous increase in the cost of imported cotton yarn. Affected by the Fed's interest rate hike and the establishment of the upward trend of the US dollar index, the depreciation of the RMB may accelerate. At the interest rate meeting in February, 65438, the Fed meeting hinted that the United States might raise interest rates three times next year, indicating that the Fed's monetary tightening is accelerating. At the same time, there is still downward pressure on China's domestic economic growth. 165438+1On October 23rd, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.9463, one step away from the 7 mark. Therefore, according to the analysis of some institutions and media, the possibility of RMB's one-time sharp depreciation or short-term rapid depreciation will not be ruled out, and China's import and export business will be greatly affected and impacted.