Present situation and development prospect of iron and steel industry
Analysis on the development status of iron and steel and coke industry in China. Development of steel and coke industry in China in the past 30 years of reform and opening up. At present, the prices of steel and coke markets in China are in a downward channel, which is not only affected by the international and domestic markets, but also by the development of steel and coke industries. From the development of steel and coke industry, the changes in steel and coke market are closely related to the following factors. China's 30-year reform and opening up has given great vitality to China's economy and steel and coke industries. China bid farewell to poverty and backwardness, saying goodbye to food stamps, meat stamps, cloth tickets, books and model operas, and replaced them with high-end goods such as mobile phones, computers, air conditioners, commercial houses, private cars, credit cards and blogs. The steel industry, in particular, has developed vigorously from macro-control, encouraging steel export tax rebates, and then collecting tariffs to control steel exports. The coke export tax rebate was changed from 15% in the past to a quota license system, and then a 40% tariff was imposed to control the total production. Since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, China has bid farewell to the shortage era of planned distribution of steel and planned allocation of raw materials, and steel has changed from a big importer to a big net exporter. The output of steel has successively reached a new level of1.200 million tons, 300 million tons and 400 million tons, reaching the production level of 500 million tons. The output of crude steel, pig iron and coke accounts for 37%, 50% and 60% of the global output respectively. In terms of varieties, the self-sufficiency rate of all steel has reached 108.34%, and only four varieties are not completely self-sufficient. Through the merger and reorganization in recent years, China has formed the development pattern of six major iron and steel groups, including Hebei, Baotou Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Shandong, Aberdeen and Shagang. From the development of the coke industry, since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, the coke output has increased from more than 40 million tons to 60% of the world's coke output, and the coke output has successively crossed the steps of 1, 200 million tons and 300 million tons. The development of coke industry is mainly with the development of iron and steel industry, but also meets the needs of chemical industry, non-ferrous metals, machinery manufacturing and other industries. The development of iron and steel industry has also promoted the rapid growth of global economy, including the United States, Japan and Brazil. The iron and steel industry in China made a profit of RMB 37 1.978 to 1.993, and then lost RMB 400 million from 1.998 to last year 1.70 billion, especially after 2004. The 30-year development process can be roughly divided into three stages. Since 15, China's steel production has increased by 7. 15% on average, pig iron production has increased by 6.33%, and coke production has increased by 4.68%. By 2002, the output of crude steel, pig iron and coke increased by 8.22%, 7.73% and 4.89% respectively. From 2003 to 2007, the output of crude steel, pig iron and coke increased by 265,438 0.86%, 22.42% and 65,438 0.62% respectively. China iron and steel industry has experienced a long and arduous development road. According to the ten-year cycle of China's economic development, from 1978 to 1988, the development reached a climax, which lasted until June of 1990, and then from the second half of 1990, the steel price dropped sharply, which lasted until 1998, that is. Since 2000, the price of steel in China began to rise, and then fell sharply in the second half of this year. In September this year, the national steel output growth rate was 6.2%, while in 2005, the steel output growth rate was 27.2%, and 6.2% was the lowest month in the past 28 years. It should be said that China iron and steel industry has entered a period of low-speed and steady development after about three stages of development. The sharp rise in raw material prices is inseparable from the development of the steel industry. China's steel output reached its climax in 2004, and reached an inflection point after 2005, and it continued until this year. The coke industry has entered an inflection point since 2006. We should look at the future development trend from the development and growth rate of China iron and steel industry, find out the laws and changes of economic development, and apply them to the present development. Second, the challenges faced by the steel and coke industries in China have entered the lowest point in the world steel industry in the past 20 years from 1 in 20065438+February. June this year is the highest period of domestic steel prices, and the climax of the international steel market is in July. In August, the international steel market price began to fall after a continuous increase of 1 1 month. So this round of decline is a global decline. At present, the sharp drop in domestic steel prices is not caused by the normal decline in demand, but by market panic and selling at no cost. The production capacity of the coke industry also reached a climax in June this year, and now the coke output has also been greatly reduced. At present, there is a certain lag in coal prices, so there is still room for coke prices to fall. At present, steel enterprises in most parts of the world are implementing or planning to implement production reduction. According to the statistics of the World Iron and Steel Association, the crude steel output decreased by 3.2% in September 2008 and 3.7% in August this year, which was the first year-on-year decline since 2002, including 70% in China, 9.3% in the United States, 22.6% in Ukraine, 7.4% in South Africa, 4.2% in Brazil and 2.5% in Russia. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of American steel mills fell to the lowest level in four years, and Japanese steel mills also planned to start reducing production. Since 2003, the global economy has maintained high growth, but at the same time, the imbalance between energy resources and global trade has become prominent, which has affected the world economy to enter an adjustment period and slowed down the consumption demand of steel and coke. The current changes in the international market are the superposition of various situations, and the panic of the financial crisis has amplified the shrinking market demand. The continuous depreciation of the dollar, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, global inflation caused by energy resources and food, the decline of real estate, the stock market crash, and even the global financial crisis. In the global financial crisis, the violent impact of panic on the economy further amplified the shrinking demand for steel and coke. At the same time, we should also see that the overall situation in China is good, the economy maintains rapid growth, the financial industry operates steadily, and the basic situation of China's economic development has not changed. After steady and rapid growth, investment growth accelerated, exports increased, and residents' consumption was high. After 30 years of reform and opening up, China has a huge economic and material foundation and economic strength to cope with severe challenges; Accumulated many years of measures and experience in implementing macro-control economy; There is a huge market with a population of 65.438+0.3 billion, the gap between the eastern, central and western regions is large, the development potential is great, and the enthusiasm and momentum of local economic development are strong; China's steel products have great demand potential; China's industrialization, urbanization and modernization are far from in place, and it is still in a period of accelerated construction and high growth. However, steel and coke enterprises should enhance their sense of hardship, actively respond to challenges and adjust their development strategies. In accordance with the requirements of scientific development, we should shift the focus of our work to structural adjustment and rely on technological progress, technological innovation and scientific management to reduce costs.