At the beginning of 1997, international investment institutions were established to sell the Thai baht wave, which caused the Thai baht exchange rate to fluctuate and borrowed 65,438.05 billion US dollars. In a few months, from 1997, the bank spent the Thai baht forward contract and then sold it on a large scale in the spot market. The Thai baht exchange rate fluctuates, and Thailand and its central banks defend its status. Only in1February, 1997, the pressure caused by the financial market turmoil was increasing (RMB). The foreign exchange reserves of $200 million of nine financial companies only decreased by 430 million initially. The liquidity problems of Thai banks and housing loan companies have increased their capital by 825 billion baht (3 17 million US dollars). Banks and financial institutions are also required to have a bad debt reserve ratio of 100% to15% to 120%, which is stipulated by the financial system. In doing so, the Bank of Thailand's initiative to increase 5 billion baht (US$ 654.38+94 billion) is aimed at strengthening the stability and confidence of the financial system. On the contrary, it was made public in financial institutions for only five or six days, and investors were confident that 10 financial companies were close to1500 million baht (about 577 million US dollars). At the same time, a large number of investors sold the stocks of banks and financial companies, which led to the continuous decline of Thai stock market and foreign exchange market and increased downward pressure. With the strong intervention of the Bank of Thailand, Thailand's stock market and foreign exchange market temporarily stabilized in May. Since May 8th, the Thai baht has been borrowed from local banks and sold in large quantities in the spot and futures markets, resulting in a sharp drop in the Thai baht. The spot exchange rate of Thai baht has repeatedly exceeded the floating exchange rate ceiling of the Bank of Thailand, causing market panic. Local banks, corporate banks and foreign banks entered the market, selling Thai baht on the spot to snap up US dollars or Syrian dollars for forward hedging transactions, which further worsened the financial market. Thai baht depreciated to 26.94:65438+ against the US dollar. Faced with this influence, we should step up our intervention in financial markets, banks and Thailand, spend about $5 billion on foreign exchange intervention, and provide different forms of support to central banks from Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries and regions. At the same time, the interest rate of offshore bank loans rose to 65,438+0,000%, and the cost of speculating on Thai baht increased. At the same time, banks were prohibited from taking a series of measures to stabilize Thai baht and intervening in the situation that the Bank of Thailand and Thailand changed to temporary control. In the middle and late June, the former finance minister of Thailand resigned, but it also triggered speculation in the financial sector that the Thai baht might depreciate, which led to the Thai baht plummeting to 1 US dollar against 28 baht. Thailand's stock market fell 46 1.32 points, starting from 1.200 points, the lowest point in eight years. 0.7 The Central Bank of Thailand suddenly announced that it would stick to the exchange rate policy of 14 to abandon the Thai baht pegged to the US dollar and implement a managed floating exchange rate system. It also announced an increase in interest rates from 65,438+00.5%. The smell of the Thai baht date sounds reduced by 17%, a record low. In 2000, a financial crisis broke out in Thailand. The financial crisis triggered by the devaluation of the Thai baht dealt a heavy blow to Thailand's economic development, resulting in rising prices, high interest rates, increased foreign debts of enterprises, tight liquidity, operational difficulties, stock market crash and economic recession.

Purchasing power parity theory, Thai baht collapse

The main point of this theory is that people need foreign currency because it has foreign purchasing power goods, and the exchange rate of the two currencies is mainly determined by the ratio of the two currencies, their purchasing power and purchasing power parity. Suppose you buy a group of products in Britain and the United States, the purchasing power of the two currencies is 2: L, and the exchange rate of the two currencies should be GBP = $2.

When all the above conditions are met, if a country's foreign exchange transaction, exchange rate and relative price level obviously deviate from the purchasing power parity exchange rate, it is another country, which is an opportunity to hedge the goods with the greatest deviation. For example, suppose the foreign exchange market exchange rate is-1 = $ 1, which deviates from PPP. People will use pounds to buy a lot of goods from Britain and export them to the United States, and convert dollars thrown in the foreign exchange market into pounds. As a result, the exchange rate, the pound rose, while the exchange rate corresponding to the dollar fell until it was consistent with PPP.

Let's take a look at something. In Thailand's foreign exchange market beginning with 1997, traders can borrow 100 baht from banks for a period of six months, and then the traders will convert 100 baht into US dollars (US dollars 1 = 26 baht exchange rate). After that, if the exchange rate drops to 1 USD = 50 baht, then after only half a year, you can buy 100 baht at a cost of 2, and these baht are left to the banker with a profit of 100%.

In the above example, we can see that in six months, 100% income was used to explain the theory, and the calculation of purchasing power parity was only the soaring prices and inflation in Thailand. If we know the goods of a special currency, according to the theory of relative purchasing power parity, relative purchasing power = B of the base exchange rate country/a country's price index. As can be seen from the formula, the factor that determines the relative purchasing power level is the ratio between the base period price indexes with constant exchange rate. Purchasing power is relatively low, and the proportion of these two countries is relatively small, which means that the bigger the denominator, the higher the inflation index and the lower the inflation index.

Of course, the theory of purchasing power parity is the most fatal attack, which completely ignores the differences between capital account exchange rates. The difference of exchange rate influence between capital projects is increasing. Judging from the development trend, as the traditional purchasing power parity exchange rate theory, its effect will be weakened continuously. In Thailand, for example, the collapse of the Thai baht accelerated the huge deficit in the capital account, causing the government to sell dollars in large quantities to stabilize the local currency.

1, the export product structure is single, and the current account deficit is serious. The rapid economic growth in Thailand is mainly due to the internal reasons of Thailand's export-led financial crisis (1). According to statistics, from 199 1 to 1995, the average annual growth rate of Thai exports is 18. 17%. However, because Thailand's export products are mainly labor-intensive electronic products and clothing, the structure is single, which is remarkable with the economic growth. Increase Thailand's minimum wage by 23% 1995, and the increase in wage costs makes the labor cost 2? 3 times, but the labor productivity with slow quality growth is difficult to improve. Rising wage costs, declining exports, the competitiveness of the international market, weakened demand and the competition of similar products from other countries and regions (such as the challenge of heavy industry products from South Korea and the former Soviet Union countries) will lead to the decline of 1996, the export growth rate will drop sharply to 0. 1%, the import and expansion will lead to a substantial increase in the trade deficit, and the total current account deficit will reach166.

Foreign borrowers have high short-term foreign debts. 1In the 1990s, the competition of developing countries for foreign markets intensified. Thailand's current account deficit and huge fiscal revenue and expenditure deficit, in addition to further liberalization of foreign capital, over-reliance on foreign loans to make up for the funding gap, have almost reached the point of beggars in Thailand. The total foreign debt has soared, and the foreign debt structure is seriously unbalanced. According to statistics, Thailand's foreign debt increased from 1.992 to $3.96 billion, and from 1.996 to $93 billion, equivalent to 50% of GDP. Thailand's average foreign debt burden is $65,438+0,560, including short-term foreign debt, accounting for about 45% of the total foreign debt to pay this huge debt. Thailand must maintain more than 654,300 people this year. So once the export growth rate drops, there will be a debt crisis, which will lead to a financial crisis.

3. Opening the capital account prematurely. In the early 1990s, the Thai government basically abolished the control of capital flow, and the global local currency was freely convertible to 0. 1993. In March this year, the Thai government approved the option to open a financial center in Bangkok and relaxed the option for foreign banks to set up branches in Thailand until the financial center was allowed to be traded by foreign investors. 1995, the Thai government announced that Thailand will fully realize the free entry of export capital in 2000. The fixed exchange rate system of Thai baht pegged to the US dollar has not yet become a market exchange rate, and it will not achieve the role of economic and financial exchange rate adjustment without truly reflecting the actual exchange rate level. The deposit and loan interest rate of Thai baht is still very high, reaching 15% on average, which is more than twice the average interest rate in the international capital market. Thailand's stock market and foreign exchange market are very vulnerable to international short-term speculative capital arbitrage. The macro-control ability of the three countries is weak, long-term budget deficits and serious revenue and expenditure deficits are frequent and low, and the balance of national foreign exchange reserves can not effectively adjust the total supply and demand balance of society and maintain macro-stability. In short, Thailand's failure to open its capital account prematurely when conditions permit will inevitably lead to uncontrollable foreign exchange input and output and increase domestic financial turmoil. Faced with the withdrawal of short-term foreign capital, the Thai government sold foreign exchange to the central bank to maintain stability, and there was no good strategy to prevent short-term capital outflow. Thailand's immature capital account liberalization policy is a major strategic mistake. This is the catalyst for Thailand's financial crisis.

4. Unreasonable credit investment, bad debt provision and bad debt provision of financial institutions have rapidly doubled to 0.90. Since Thailand's rapid economic growth, real estate prices have soared, while drivers have made high profits in real estate and the stock market, and the stock market is entering a boom period and becoming a big investor. The Thai government and financial management departments neglected to manage and guide financial institutions to lend to real estate and large-scale stock markets, including borrowing a lot of foreign loans from these two industries. According to statistics, before the financial crisis broke out, all kinds of loans from financial institutions in Thailand's real estate market accounted for about 50% of the total loans, and financial stocks accounted for 1/3 of Thailand's stock market. A large amount of funds are invested in real estate, and the false prosperity of real estate will inevitably lead to serious oversupply. Therefore, the real estate bubble bursts, real estate enterprises cannot repay loans, and bad debt reserves and bad debts of financial institutions surge. The stock market, which was suppressed by real estate, prospered to depression. By the end of 1996, nearly 30% of Thailand's foreign loans and 80% of its foreign direct investment had been invested in the real estate and stock markets, with 850,000 vacant houses, a vacancy rate of 20%, and bad bank loans 155 billion, exceeding $30 billion,1June 1997,10. The bursting of the "bubble" in real estate and stock market and the soaring provision for doubtful debts of various financial institutions have destroyed confidence and the stability and reliability of Thailand's financial system.

5. The government departments have weak supervision and awareness of risk prevention, and the Thai government has weak awareness of risk prevention in this process of high economic growth, as well as poor financial supervision. First of all, the Thai government lacks effective supervision over the large inflow of foreign capital, which makes foreign countries unbalanced and short-term capital inflows too much; According to statistics, by the end of 1996, most of Thailand's private sector's foreign debt of $70 billion (including short-term foreign debt of $4 billion) was invested in real estate and stock market, which greatly promoted the ineffective supervision of real estate bubbles and stock market bubbles, not only caused inflation in Thailand, but also made the financial system of Thailand's economic development vulnerable to severe speculative capital. Secondly, the supervision of government departments and enterprises is weak, especially the financial supervision institutions of real estate and banks, which leads to the excessive participation of credit financial institutions, real estate and all sectors of society in the wave of profiteering of real estate developers. The government crisis, until the bank supervision was hastily reformed to improve financial transparency, the enterprise bankruptcy law closed the reform of financial institutions and restricted real estate investment companies, but this crisis has occurred. Third, the government does not have the risk of current account deficit, which should be paid enough attention to. 196 Thailand's current account deficit accounted for 1% of GDP, which was 7.2% before the Mexican financial crisis in194. However, the Thai government has not learned from international experience and lessons, although the International Monetary Fund has warned that Thailand's current account. Thailand's current account deficit, which has been expanding for eight years in the face of speculative capital pouring into the real estate bubble, is indifferent, which fully reflects its weak risk awareness and is bound to swallow the bitter fruit in the case of preventing risks.

6. The level of foreign exchange reserves is low. To maintain a low level of foreign exchange reserves and accelerate the pace of economic development, Thailand's long-term actual reserves have been controlled at $30 billion to $35 billion, or is it only equivalent to Thailand's 3? Import foreign exchange for 4 months. Obviously, such a level of foreign exchange reserves can only meet the general needs of Thailand's external payment, but cannot cope with special circumstances. Due to the low level of foreign exchange reserves, the financial macro-control ability of the Central Bank of Thailand has been seriously weakened. 19971July, Soros and other international financial tycoons "were attacked by speculation. In order to avoid the devaluation of the Thai baht, stabilize the Thai stock market, the foreign exchange market was turbulent and repelled the tycoons." The Central Bank of Thailand intervened in the financial market and continued to accumulate about 2 billion US dollars of foreign exchange (more than 4 billion US dollars can be invested independently) and put it into the financial market. However, due to the low level of foreign exchange reserves, the central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market.

The inflexible exchange rate system has long been linked to the US dollar. Since 1984, Thailand's exchange rate fluctuation has been limited to 0? In the range of 15% 0 16%, the exchange rate system lacks flexibility ... This exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate pegged to the US dollar has made a historic contribution to the Thai economy because of its long-term prosperity. Very large, in order to reduce the uncertainty of exchange rate, the relatively stable value of Thai baht has greatly increased foreign trade and national economy; The fixed exchange rate has flooded into Thailand for a long time, and Thailand has contributed to the industrialization of low-cost international capital; By the end of 1996, foreign exchange reserves rose to 65438+, and Thailand's total foreign exchange reserves reached 3.710.2 billion US dollars, making it the world's foreign exchange reserves of10.2. The fixed exchange rate system has brought economic benefits to prosperous Thailand. However, the Thai government ignored the restrictions and relaxed financial supervision, unable to adjust the exchange rate in the changing economic and financial situation, which caused the impact of international financial speculators.

The fixed exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar has its inherent defects. For example, inflation or deflation is difficult to be conducted as an independent international monetary policy, and changes in the economic and financial situation may bring very serious consequences to the national economy.

First of all, the Bank of Thailand adjusted the economic exchange tool 1993, making it difficult to peg the fixed exchange rate system of the US dollar. With the influx of foreign capital and the pressure of appreciation of the Thai baht, the Thai central bank has adopted an intervention policy, and domestic interest rates have continued to rise, further stimulating foreign capital inflows and increasing domestic money supply, thus further stimulating domestic demand and increasing investment in unnecessary departments. It is difficult for the central bank to implement an effective monetary policy, which will damage the domestic economy. In May, international financial speculators sold Thai baht crazily, and the Bank of Thailand had to take passive intervention and fell into crisis when the foreign exchange reserves were exhausted.

Second, the fixed exchange rate system is linked to the US dollar. By stimulating currency speculation to freely enter the capital market and obtain a relatively stable and overvalued exchange rate, it will greatly stimulate foreign exchange speculators and have an impact on the local economy and financial system.

Third, the fixed exchange rate system is pegged to the US dollar, and Thailand's current account deficit has intensified. With the recovery of American economy and the recovery of American economy, the US dollar continues to appreciate against the Japanese yen to improve the international competitiveness of Japanese products. And the export of Thai products? Competitiveness has declined, so exports have further hindered the trade deficit? The soaring current account deficit has created opportunities for foreign exchange speculators.

Fourth, the fixed exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar has caused a serious bubble in Thailand's economy. Under the fixed exchange rate system under the financial system, Thailand's current account deficit is high, in order to avoid the pressure of devaluation of the Thai baht. The Thai government must maintain a surplus in capital and financial accounts, so it has to raise interest rates. Thailand has maintained a market interest rate of over 13% for many years. As a country with the highest interest rate, the high interest rate in the Asia-Pacific market has attracted a large number of international capital flows and capital inflows, and a considerable part of the investment pursuing high returns has been invested in the real estate industry, which has led to the serious bursting of the bubble economy and the massive outflow of speculative capital, which has caused a strong impact on Thailand's economy and financial system.

The Thai baht, which has been obviously overvalued with the fixed exchange rate pegged to the US dollar, will become the target of international financial predators for many years in the middle of 0.90, forcing the Thai government to throw out a lot of foreign exchange, and the Thai baht is greatly overvalued. "Financial predators" predict that the devaluation of the Thai baht will be prey. A well-known international currency investment? The attack on the Thai baht carefully planned by pilot Soro in early May finally forced the Thai baht to depreciate sharply in July, which triggered the currency crisis and financial crisis in Thailand.

(B) Thailand's financial crisis caused by external reasons.

1。 The adjustment of the global strategic situation in the post-cold war period, the rapid economic development of Thailand and some Southeast Asian countries, and even the whole East Asia, all rely on the export-oriented economy to prosper. Export-oriented economy needs stable market support. During the cold war, this market was the United States and Europe, mainly the United States. But after the cold war, the United States fought in Thailand and East Asia. On the whole, the change of interests does not need other security interests at the expense of economic interests, nor does it need to support the economic growth of the region in its own market. Therefore, in the new pattern of East Asia, it is necessary to reduce the dependence on the North American market, but at the same time, many East Asian economies are relatively small in scale and have limited market demand. Therefore, their economic structure and export-oriented characteristics need to coordinate the regional economic requirements, while maintaining a single economic growth in vitro, reducing the structural similarity between economies, expanding the field of regional division of labor, and thus reducing the consistency and dependence of regional economies. Unfortunately, this problem has not been solved in East Asia. In addition, since the mid-1990s, Thailand and some countries in Southeast Asia have gradually entered a period of upgrading from labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. During this period, the demand for funds has exceeded the domestic financing capacity of Thailand and other countries, so it is necessary to obtain financing from the international financial market on preferential terms. However, due to the breakpoints in the industrial transfer chain and the stimulation of high interest rates in Thailand (and other countries), too much short-term speculative capital flowed into the real estate sector, which was Thailand (the United States) and laid the groundwork for the financial crisis.

2. Speculative attacks of hot money. The deliberate attack on "Thai baht" by foreign speculators also occurred in Thailand. 90. Because of the external financial crisis, in the process of accelerating international economic integration, especially the Internet to promote finance, a large number of speculative arbitrage industries have become increasingly active. According to the estimation of the International Monetary Fund, the hot money currently active in the global financial market exceeds 72 trillion, equivalent to 20% of the global gross domestic product (GDP). The fate of daily hot money in the global foreign exchange market is 1.2 trillion dollars, which is a considerable physical transaction recently. The speculation of international hot money has strong liquidity, concealment and destructiveness. As a result of this speculative rebound, george soros, a speculative financial investor in Thailand, has caused waves in the international arena. In the pound crisis of 1992 and the Mexican financial crisis of 1995, the "genius" made a profit of at least $30 billion. It is estimated that the existing wealth is 1997 dollars, and the economic situation in Thailand is beginning to deteriorate. Soros's speculation is ripe and he can easily sell about $6 billion.