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The Economic Impact of International Hot Money
The influence of international hot money on a country's economy has two basic forms. One is "attraction-avoidance". When a country's economy is overheated, in order to curb inflation, the monetary authorities implement high interest rates, attract a large number of international hot money inflows, engage in arbitrage, arbitrage or investment activities, force its own currency to appreciate, and trigger a foreign trade deficit. Meanwhile, the prices of securities and real estate are also rising, forming a "bubble" economy. Excessive market value and deteriorating trade situation have caused the psychological expectation of currency depreciation in the foreign exchange market, triggered the outflow of capital (including international hot money), and further devalued the currency, forming a vicious circle. When the currency depreciates to a certain extent, foreign capital in the securities market and real estate market begins to flee, prices fall, and the economic bubble bursts. The other is "deliberate hype". When international hot money finds profit opportunities in a country's foreign exchange market or securities market, it uses various financial means such as credit, futures and spot to mobilize a large amount of funds and engage in speculative activities. 1992' s impact on the pound and lira is a typical case of deliberate speculation, while 1994' s Mexican financial crisis and 1997' s southeast Asian financial crisis are the results of the comprehensive use of two kinds of impact methods of international hot money.