This round of soybean meal market rose sharply. On the one hand, due to the cooling market demand at the beginning of the third quarter, international soybean prices rose, and soybean imports fell sharply in August, down 24.5% year-on-year! Domestic mainstream oil plants maintain low operating rate and relatively little soybean meal inventory; On the other hand, the weather turned cold in September, the operating rate of feed enterprises increased greatly, the downstream aquaculture subjects concentrated on stocking, the supply of soybean meal was less, the price of oil plants kept rising, and the price reached a stage high!
However, with the arrival of the National Day holiday, the demand for centralized stocking in the market has also come to an end. Soybean meal just needs to drop, and traders' cautious mood becomes stronger. Recently, soybean meal has shown a weak trend! The new grain soybean market is scattered in some areas at present, and soybeans are showing a high opening trend!
According to industry analysis, soybean prices are higher. On the one hand, the domestic soybean planting cost rises, the prices of chemical fertilizers and agricultural materials rise sharply, the labor cost increases, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices rise, and the logistics freight rises sharply, which also aggravates the performance of soybean price increase.
On the other hand, due to the pressure of international inflation, the price level is high. In August, domestic imports were 710.7 million tons, down 24.5% year-on-year. However, in terms of expenditure costs, it only decreased by 2.4% year-on-year. It can be seen that the surge in international soybean prices has also supported the rise of the domestic spot market!
In terms of new soybeans this year, due to the uneven quality of soybeans, the low-protein soybean market is weak, and the high-protein soybeans are in short supply. Due to the increase of planting area of soybeans instead of corn this year, soybeans have higher yield expectations. Therefore, traders are cautious, soybeans have become a "hot potato", and traders dare not rashly open positions!
According to the data, the domestic soybean auction is still going on. On June 8, the two-way soybean auction was more than 26,000 tons, and the reserve price was 5,850 ~ 5,900 yuan/ton!
According to grass-roots feedback, at present, in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, the price of new soybean wool grains is 2.9~2.95 yuan/kg, and the price of tower grains is 2.97~2.98 yuan/kg.
In Hailun, Suihua, Heilongjiang, the listing price of 40 protein soybean coarse grains is 2.9~2.95 yuan, and the tower grain is 3.05~3.07 yuan/kg! In Bei 'an, Heihe, the price of 37~38 protein tower grain is 3.02~3.03 yuan/kg.
The price of coarse grains in Hulunbeier, Inner Mongolia is 2.9~3 yuan, and the low-protein coarse grains are 2.85 yuan/kg.
The price of new soybean wool in Jining, Shandong Province is 2.9~3 yuan, and 42 protein is 3.2~3.23 yuan/kg!
Soybean prices are high and sideways, and the performance of opening higher this year has also greatly increased the risk of traders opening positions. As for the soybean price of 5438+00 in June, personally, due to the increase of soybean planting area, soybean supply will be more relaxed, but the market requires higher soybean quality and soybean prices will be more differentiated. High-protein soybeans have obvious advantages, but low-protein soybeans will perform poorly!
In addition, due to the high domestic soybean meal market, the pressure of tight market supply in June 5438+ 10 still exists, and the soybean meal market will remain sideways at around 5,000 yuan/ton, which also has strong support for new grain soybeans. The superposition, the gradual harvest of American soybeans and the strengthening of the US dollar price will also aggravate the international soybean price level to maintain a high level!
Therefore, personally, because of 10, domestic farmers' centralized stocking has come to an end, and the soybean meal market is weak, and new grain soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest. In the short term, soybean prices may be weak. However, due to the international inflationary pressure and the sideways high position of the domestic soybean meal market, it is expected that the soybean price will remain high with limited room for decline!
The soybean meal market has skyrocketed, and soybeans have become a hot potato. What happened? 10 bean price warning! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!