(1) Energy price fluctuation is lowered.
Crude oil crude oil prices at home and abroad show an "anti-N" trend, and domestic oil prices are 20.5% higher than those in the United States. The average spot price of crude oil in Daqing Oilfield was 1 13.5 USD/barrel, up 2.9% year-on-year. The spot price of new york crude oil in the United States averaged 94. 1 USD/barrel, down 0.7% year-on-year. From a monthly perspective, domestic and international oil prices are in a volatile trend. The average monthly price in Daqing fluctuated from 1 17.5 USD/barrel in 65438+February to 106.4 USD/barrel, and the price of crude oil in new york fluctuated from 65438+65438 USD +000.0 USD/barrel to 87 USD/barrel in 65438+February. The price of Daqing crude oil is higher than that of new york crude oil continuously, and the spread tends to expand. The spread fluctuated from 17.5% in June 5438+February to 2 1. 1% in June 5438+February.
Figure 2-37 Trend of Crude Oil Price at Home and Abroad
Source: National Research Network.
In the first quarter, international crude oil prices fluctuated. The economic data of China and the United States are good, especially the tension between Iran and western countries has not escalated. The European Union reached a second bailout agreement for Greece, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low, and international oil prices showed an upward trend. new york oil prices rose sharply to the highest level in nine months. In the second quarter, international crude oil prices fell sharply. Affected by the weak global economic data, the discussion of releasing reserves in some European and American countries, the continuous growth of crude oil production in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the continuous increase of crude oil inventories in the United States, the weaker-than-expected employment situation in the United States, the further deterioration of the European debt crisis, the intensification of geopolitical risks, and the sharp reduction of economic expectations by the Federal Reserve, the international oil price showed an accelerated downward trend. In the third quarter, crude oil prices fluctuated upward due to the escalation of tension in the Middle East, the further fermentation of European debt, the expected increase of economic stimulus policies in Europe and the United States, the strike of Norwegian oil workers, the decline of crude oil supply in the North Sea, the decline of crude oil inventories in the United States and the tight supply of crude oil caused by hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico. In the fourth quarter, crude oil prices at home and abroad remained volatile due to factors such as weak global economic growth, persistent European debt crisis, intensified geopolitics, continuous increase in US crude oil inventories, concerns about the "fiscal cliff" in the United States, the launch of the fourth round of monetary easing policy (QE4) in the United States, and the decline in the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The domestic price of high-quality coal shows a trend of decreasing first and then stabilizing. The average price of domestic high-quality coal was 683 yuan/ton, down by 13.8% year-on-year, from 65438+ 10 to 757 yuan/ton in May, and then dropped rapidly to 62 yuan1ton in July, and then steadily to 65438+. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the 20 12-year Implementation Plan for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Coal Industry (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which once again emphasized the promotion of the merger and reorganization of coal mining enterprises and urged the provinces (autonomous regions) that have not yet issued the work plan to speed up the introduction of the merger and reorganization work plan and supporting measures. The circular lowered the annual coal target to stabilize coal prices.
Figure 2-38 Domestic Price Changes of High-quality Coal
(2) The price of metal mineral products fluctuates obviously.
Iron ore Iron ore is in the trend of falling first and then rising. The average CIF price of imported iron ore was USD 65,438+028/ton, down by 265,438+0.8% year-on-year, from USD 65,438+00/ton to USD 65,438+036.4/ton, and then rebounded to USD 65,438+004.9/ton in February. Domestic Hebei iron ore price (66% fine ore) averaged 977 yuan/ton, down 29.3% year-on-year; On a monthly basis, it fluctuated from 65438+1 180 yuan/ton in October to 848 yuan/ton in September, and then rose slightly to 872 yuan/ton in 65438+February (Figure 2-39).
In the first three quarters, the iron ore port inventory has remained at a high level of more than 90 million tons. Due to the continuous growth of steel stocks, steel mills have a wait-and-see attitude towards port iron ore, and their willingness to buy is not strong, which leads to the serious phenomenon of port iron ore crushing. Since the second quarter, the ore stocks in major domestic ports have continuously increased, hitting record highs, and remained at the level of more than 96 million tons in June. In the fourth quarter, driven by the improvement of domestic economy, the iron ore inventory continuously dropped to 65,438+83 million tons at the end of February, the lowest level since 20 1 1.
Figure 2-39 Iron ore price trend
Source: CIF price. According to customs data, the price of Hebei fine ore comes from China Iron and Steel Industry Association Network.
Copper and copper prices fluctuate. The average domestic price was 57,200 yuan/ton, down 13.2% year-on-year, and basically fluctuated between 55,000 yuan/ton and 60,000 yuan/ton during the year. In the same period, the average spot price of copper in London metal market was 7933 USD/ton, down 10.3% year-on-year. During the year, the price fluctuated around $8,000/ton, and the price difference at home and abroad remained below 1000/ton (Figure 2-40).
From mid-March to early July, copper prices have been fluctuating and falling, reaching the lowest point of domestic copper prices this year in early July; This is because the supply of copper market exceeds demand this year, and the weak downstream demand keeps the market in a weak pattern, which makes the overall market turnover poor, and the trend of copper market in the second quarter is relatively weak. In September, copper prices showed an upward trend. In addition to external factors, copper prices continued to fall in the early stage, and copper basically determined the bottom support. Coupled with the good news at home and abroad at that time, copper prices showed a trend of bottoming out. Driven by the rise in copper prices, other metals also rose accordingly, and the copper market showed signs of recovery in the third quarter. Then, after the sharp drop of copper price in June 5438+ 10, another wave of market was ushered in June 5438+065438+ 10, because the State Reserve of China started purchasing and storing non-ferrous metals again, and the global economic data and Greek debt crisis gradually improved in mid-June 5438+065438+ 10.
The price of aluminum has dropped steadily. Domestic average price 1.560 yuan/ton, down 7.1%year-on-year; It gradually decreased from 1.60 million yuan/ton in June to 1.5 1.00 million yuan/ton in February. The average spot price of aluminum in London metal market was 20 15 USD/ton, down 15.6% year-on-year, and fluctuated around 2,000 USD/ton during the year. The lowest price in August was 1843 USD/ton (Figure 2-4 1).
Figure 2-40 Trend of Copper Price at Home and Abroad
Data source: Domestic price comes from Beijing Nonferrous Metals Network, and international price comes from China Metal Bulletin.
Figure 2-4 1 aluminum price trend at home and abroad
Data source: Domestic price comes from Beijing Nonferrous Metals Network, and international price comes from China Metal Bulletin.
The price of gold at home and abroad is inverted "W". The average domestic gold price was 338.9 yuan/gram, up 3.4% year-on-year, from 65438+/kloc-0 to 332.5 yuan/gram in February, to 327.0 yuan/gram in July, to 355.0 yuan/gram in September, and then fell again in the fourth quarter to 6544. In the same period, the average price of gold on the London Gold Exchange was $65,438+$0.669 per ounce, up 6.4% year-on-year, and the change during the year was consistent with the domestic gold price trend (Figure 2-42).
Figure 2-42 Gold Price Trend at Home and Abroad
Source: Domestic price comes from Shanghai Gold Exchange and international price comes from London Gold Exchange.
Rare earth domestic rare earth prices have fallen sharply. The annual average price of Europium Oxide was 78 17 yuan/kg, down 43.5% year-on-year, from 13 100 yuan/kg in 65438+February to 63 12 yuan/kg. The annual average price of dysprosium oxide was 3958 yuan/kg, down 42.6% year-on-year, from 5803 yuan/kg in 65438+ 10 to 2583 yuan/kg in 65438+2, a drop of more than half. The annual average price of terbium oxide is 6227 yuan/kg, down 44.3% year-on-year, from 10900 yuan/kg in 65438+February to 4643 yuan/kg in 65438+February (Figure 2-43).
The reasons for the rapid decline in the price of 20 12 rare earth are as follows: First, Ganzhou resumed production, which provided a relatively sufficient supply for the market and calmed the market's panic about supply; Second, the European debt crisis broke out. The financial situation of major economies in the world is tense, financial support is greatly weakened, and market demand is reduced, further reducing market expectations. Third, the global economy is uncertain, the downstream market demand is declining in stages, and the market demand for rare earth raw materials is slowing down. Fourth, domestic funds began to be tight, and funds became scarce. With the gradual recovery of rare earth supply, the correction of market price and the attack of national ministries and commissions, capital began to withdraw from the rare earth market on a large scale, which also accelerated the decline of market price; Fifth, two large-scale rare earth projects in the United States and Australia have completed mass production, and the supply at the end of the year can reach about 50% of the international market, especially the demand for light rare earth. It is planned to achieve full mass production in 20 13, which reduces the market expectation of the price of rare earth raw materials in China, effectively stabilizes the international market price and objectively reduces the domestic market price of rare earth.
Figure 2-43 Price Changes of Important Rare Earth Products in China
Source: Rare Earth Price Network.
Column 1 1 launched the white paper "Status and Policies of Rare Earths in China".
In order to enhance the international community's understanding of China's rare earth industry, on June 20, 20 12, the State Council Press Office published the White Paper on the Status and Policies of Rare Earths in China, which is the first white paper related to rare earths in China, covering the status quo, development goals, technological progress and export policies of rare earths.
1. China's rare earth industry has made an important contribution to global supply.
For a long time, China has earnestly fulfilled its commitment to join the World Trade Organization, abided by the rules of the World Trade Organization, and promoted fair trade in rare earths. At present, China has 23% of rare earth resources, accounting for more than 90% of the world market supply. The rare earth permanent magnet materials, luminescent materials, hydrogen storage materials and polishing materials produced in China account for more than 70% of the world output. China's terminal products, such as rare earth materials, devices, energy-saving lamps, micro-special motors and nickel-hydrogen batteries, meet the needs of the development of high-tech industries in various countries, especially in developed countries.
2. China has paid a huge price for the global supply of rare earths.
-Over-exploitation of resources. The main mining resources of Baotou rare earth mine are only one third, and the reserve-production ratio of ionic rare earth mines in South China has dropped from 50 20 years ago to 15 at present. The recovery rate of ionic rare earth resources in southern China is less than 50%, and the utilization rate of Baotou rare earth mine is only 10%.
-The ecological environment has been seriously damaged. Backward production processes and technologies in rare earth mining, mineral processing, smelting and separation have seriously damaged the surface vegetation, resulting in soil erosion, soil pollution and acidification, and reduced or even no crops. In the process of smelting and separation of light rare earth minerals, a large number of toxic and harmful gases, high concentration ammonia nitrogen wastewater, radioactive waste residue and other pollutants will be produced.
-the industrial structure is unreasonable. There is a serious excess capacity in smelting and separation. The research and development of rare earth materials and devices is lagging behind, with a surplus of low-end products and a shortage of high-end products. As a small industry, rare earth is characterized by low industrial concentration, many enterprises, lack of large enterprises with core competitiveness, poor self-discipline and vicious competition to a certain extent.
3. The development of rare earth industry in China has a long way to go.
Our government attaches great importance to the development of rare earth industry. 20 1 1 In May, the State Council officially promulgated "Several Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of Rare Earth Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), which put the protection of resources and environment and the realization of sustainable development in a more important position, strengthened the management of rare earth mining, production, circulation, import and export according to law, studied and formulated, revised and improved relevant laws and regulations, and strengthened the management of rare earth industry. Establish an inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for rare metals, and study major issues such as national rare earth development strategies, plans, plans and policies as a whole; Set up a rare earth office to coordinate and put forward plans for rare earth mining, production, storage, import and export. The relevant departments of the State Council should do the corresponding management work according to their duties. On April 20 12, China Rare Earth Industry Association was approved, which played an important role in industry self-discipline, standardizing industry order and actively carrying out international cooperation and exchanges.
(3) The prices of nonmetallic mineral products have steadily declined.
The average annual price of potassium chloride in China is 3076 yuan/ton, which is the same as last year. From a monthly perspective, the average monthly price is gradually decreasing. From 65438+3 10 yuan/ton in October to 65438+2900 yuan/ton in February, the change trend is opposite to 20 1 1 (Figure 2-44).
Figure 2-44 Domestic Potassium Oxide Price Changes
Source: National Research Network.
The annual average price of cement was 359.0 yuan/ton, down 6.2% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, it shows a trend of first restraining and then rising, from 378.4 yuan/ton in 65438+ 10 to 344.7 yuan/ton in September, and then to 360.0 yuan/ton in 65438+February.