Hardware manufacturing capacity continues to shift to China. From the production, marketing, import and export of computer hardware, the production capacity of the whole machine continues to shift to China, and the domestic demand and import of high-end products increase rapidly, indicating that the overall domestic IT investment keeps growing and the prosperity of hardware manufacturing keeps rising.
The software industry began to recover in the fourth quarter of 2009. Judging from the income growth rate of the software industry, due to the influence of the global economic cycle, the development of the software industry lags behind. Under the influence of global economic recovery and China's stimulus policy, the growth rate slowly declined, and it didn't begin to fully recover until the fourth quarter of 2009. We think this is mainly because about 86.72% of the revenue of the software industry in 2009 came from China, and the industry was less impacted by the international market. The IT investment decisions of various industries are made according to the budget, and the adjustment is lagging behind.
It is the main goal of current economic policy for the industry to benefit from "restructuring", "restructuring, promoting consumption and protecting people's livelihood". The exit of the policy mainly adopts the idea of "keeping pressure", benefiting from policy support and technological progress, and the development prospect of the computer industry is relatively optimistic.
It is expected that the first quarter will remain the off-season and the second quarter will maintain the recovery trend. It is expected that the income and profit of hardware industry will get rid of negative growth, and the growth rate will be around 10%. It is estimated that in the second quarter, the revenue growth rate of the national software industry will continue to rise, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 25%.
Valuation still has potential for improvement. From the perspective of policy support, the recovery of hardware profitability and the acceleration of software growth, we believe that there is still room for improvement in the price-earnings ratio premium of hardware and software sectors. Relatively speaking, we are more optimistic about the software sector. We maintain a "buy" investment rating in the hardware and software industries.
It is expected that there will be a style change in the second quarter. It is expected that margin financing and stock index futures will be launched in the second quarter, which will have an impact on investors' trading methods, expectations and market valuation system in the short term. The importance of heavyweights will increase, and the change of style will lead to a decline in the premium rate of the computer industry with lower weight. The computer industry may lag behind the broader market in stages, but it does not affect the industry to surpass the broader market within one year.
Theme Digging Deep into Individual Stocks We give Zheng Jin a "buy" investment rating from the perspective of benefiting from the launch of stock index futures; From the perspective of promoting automobile consumption, maintain the investment rating of Qi Ming information "buy"; From the perspective of promoting tourism consumption, maintain the investment rating of "buying" stone information; From the perspective of cloud computing platform construction, maintain Donghua Software's "buy" investment rating.