1. International market: The impact of the epidemic on downstream oil may be more serious than exploration and production, and it will lead to a longer period of pain. But now, with people on the road, oil prices have fallen from the multi-year high reached earlier this year, and the situation of American refineries has finally begun to improve. Zhongyang International Futures said that in late July, as the demand for fuel in the world's largest oil consumer almost recovered to the level before the epidemic, the refinery was about to announce its first profit quarter in a year. At that time, the three major refineries in the country reported a total profit of $675 million.
2. Production supply: The strong rise in oil prices prompted President Biden to call on OPEC+to increase production, and American refiners may not agree. The demand for gasoline has been strong since the beginning of the summer driving season. This may change with the end of the season, but it probably won't change as much as it did last year. Zhongyang International Futures said that the profit margin of refiners is the embodiment of the price difference between crude oil and gasoline futures, which is $25.58 per barrel. This is close to the highest profit rate since 20 16. No wonder the capacity utilization rate of refineries exceeds 90%, compared with about 80% earlier this year.
1. In fact, the latest data from the Energy Information Administration confirmed that the prospect of this industry has improved. EIA said in its short-term energy outlook in August that gasoline consumption in the United States has recovered from 8.3 million barrels per day in the same period in 2020 to 8.6 million barrels per day in the first half of this year. Far below the consumption of 9.3 million barrels per day in 2065438+the first half of 2009. Nevertheless, EIA also pointed out in its report that gasoline consumption in May, June and July was stronger than expected, prompting it to predict that it will recover to 8.8 million barrels per day for the whole year and climb to 9 million barrels per day next year. Employment rebounded and mobility increased. However, because many people still choose to work remotely, EIA said in the report that gasoline demand is unlikely to return to the level of 20 19 in 2022.
This is good news for the oil refinery. Due to the strong demand for gasoline, the top three participants in this field greatly exceeded the analyst's profit forecast for the second quarter, and the report of Marathon Company alone exceeded the sum of $675 million estimated by analysts. The profit of this refinery in the second quarter of this year was $756,543.8+0 billion, and the profit reported by Valero was $366,543.8+0 billion, which turned losses into profits again. Although the refining industry has rebounded this year, challenges still exist. The biggest problem seems to be the cost associated with renewable fuel credit. Zhongyang International Futures believes that Valero's refining business suffered losses in the second quarter due to the rising cost of renewable credit. However, a recent bill in the Senate may change this situation, although from the perspective of refiners, this change may get worse.