Intertemporal arbitrage is actually looking at the market direction, just because you do both positive and negative directions at the same time, so the risk is smaller than one direction, and of course the profit is smaller.
Forward contracts are usually more expensive than recent contracts because of the cost of holding positions and insurance.
There are bear market arbitrage, bull market spread arbitrage and butterfly arbitrage. There may also be cross commodities, such as related commodities (wheat and corn), or finished products and raw materials (soybeans and soybean meal), and cross markets (London and Chicago).
In fact, the arbitrage risk is not great, and the profit and risk are basically locked.
The analysis method is chart, seasonal and simultaneous supply and demand analysis.
Attention should be paid to the specified spread, going in and out together, not excessive arbitrage, not working in unfamiliar markets, and handling fees. If the price difference is too small, it is not enough.
The key is to understand the market, and this is not only the domestic market, but also the global linkage of food prices is very strong, so we should look further.
Also, don't forget to close your position when the delivery is fast, or I'll really pile up soybean meal for you and you can start a farm.