Firstly, the pulp industry has great potential.
Pulp is the raw material of papermaking. According to the process method, pulping can be divided into chemical pulping, chemical mechanical pulping and mechanical pulping. Pulping materials usually include wood, bamboo, non-wood (including rice and wheat straw, reed and fern residue) and waste paper. The global pulp downstream includes: global household paper, global uncoated cultural paper, global coated cultural paper, global newsprint, global box-board corrugated paper and so on. The annual consumption of all kinds of paper in China is 1. 1 100 million tons, and the per capita consumption is 77-78 kilograms, which is higher than the world average of 57 kilograms, lower than the level of more than 200 kilograms in North America and developed countries, and also lower than the consumption of the Four Little Dragons and Asia 100 kilograms, so the future development potential of this industry is huge.
Second, the fundamentals are not optimistic.
Judging from the market trend on the first day of listing, all six listed contracts closed at the daily limit. The main contract SP 1906 opened at 5828 yuan/ton, which was 152 yuan/ton lower than the benchmark price. It continued to fall, closing at 5382 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10% and a fluctuation of 7.49%. 47 1, 124 lots, holding 78,270 lots. The main reasons for this trend are as follows: on the one hand, commodities are generally in a short-selling atmosphere recently, and commodities headed by crude oil have started to fall from the high point at the beginning of 10, and all sectors of commodity futures have experienced different degrees of decline, basically above 20%. On the other hand, recently, the futures price of bleached softwood pulp in the outer disk has fallen, the spot price has continued to fall, and the price of downstream paper products has been lowered to varying degrees, which has suppressed the pulp price.
On the whole, in view of the empty fundamentals of the pulp industry, the Sino-US trade friction and the empty macro atmosphere, the price of pulp futures is easy to fall but difficult to rise, especially the closing price on the first day of listing is at the limit, and the amount of closed positions is large. It is strictly forbidden to bargain against the trend. It is expected that the probability of further decline in the later period is high, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to short-selling opportunities during the rebound period.