In 20 12, the three central banks of the United States, Europe and Japan relaxed their monetary policies, and the Bank of China also lowered its interest rate and deposit reserve ratio. The unlimited money supply of the central bank greatly reduces the risk of market default. Market stability has actually laid the foundation for economic improvement, and the financing function and hematopoietic function of the capital market are gradually recovering. The European debt crisis has temporarily eased, and the economic development of the euro zone has entered a stable stage. The introduction of a series of rescue tools, such as EFSF, ESM and OMT, basically eliminated the possibility of systemic risks. Recently, the main leading indicators such as PMI in the Eurozone and IFO prosperity index in Germany show that the Eurozone economy has shown signs of stabilization after two consecutive years of decline due to the European debt crisis. If there is no unexpected shock, it is expected that the most difficult time for the European economy has passed. The IMF predicts that in 20 13, the euro zone economy will get rid of the mild recession in 20 12 and grow slightly by 0.2%. Germany's economic performance is basically flat, while France has slightly accelerated. At the same time, the recession in Italy and Spain decreased, and the British economy resumed growth. The U.S. economy continues to lead the recovery of developed economies and push the dollar to strengthen. Affected by low energy prices, low interest rates, low labor costs (relatively speaking, the labor costs in the United States characterized by wage growth have basically stagnated in recent years), developed financial markets and technological innovations, and relatively good corporate and household balance sheets, the US economy may further expand its economic performance with Europe and Japan after experiencing short-term interference from the fiscal cliff. Therefore, the improvement of the global economy will inevitably boost the demand for commodities. It is predicted that the price of mineral products will fluctuate around the current price in 20 13 years.
Coal: moderate recovery. 20 13 coal policy has been introduced continuously, the price of thermal coal has been merged, rare coal mining protection and coking coal futures have been introduced, but the market has not reacted strongly to this favorable situation. At present, the coking coal market is better than the thermal coal market. Protective mining of scarce coal and rising steel prices have promoted the recent coking coal market. It can be seen from the contracts signed by major coal enterprises in 20 13 that the prices of injected coal and coking coal have increased by 70~ 100 yuan/ton compared with February. Overall analysis, coal demand will increase at a low speed and the price will fluctuate in 20 13 years. With the advancement of urban construction, there is no possibility of a sharp drop in coal prices.
Column 15 "dual-track system" of coal price ends.
The "dual track system" of thermal coal price refers to two different pricing mechanisms based on the supply and demand sides of thermal coal after the coal price is gradually liberalized. One is the key contract coal price signed by coal enterprises and electric power enterprises at the beginning of the year, which locks the annual supply at a price lower than the market price; The other is the market coal price, and the price goes with the market. "Dual-track system" has played a positive role in the stability of coal supply and the growth of coal enterprises. However, with the development of economy and the sharp rise of coal price, the large price difference caused by the "dual track system" not only hinders the marketization process of coal price, but also causes many problems such as low redemption rate, poor redemption quality and unreasonable charges in intermediate links in the coal market.
In 20 12, the state continuously issued policies, proposing to deepen the market-oriented reform of thermal coal and cancel the dual-track system of thermal coal prices that has been in operation for many years. The General Office of the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of Thermal Coal (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), proposing to cancel the key contracts from 20 13 10, and cancel the dual-track price of thermal coal, so that the price can be determined by both parties through independent consultation. At the same time, continue to improve the coal-electricity price linkage mechanism. When the fluctuation range of coal-fired electricity price exceeds 5%, the on-grid electricity price will be adjusted annually. A few days before the "Opinions" were issued, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Measures to Cancel temporary price-intervention for Coal for Power Generation". It is decided to lift the measures of temporary price-intervention for thermal coal from 20 13 10, and the pricing of thermal coal shall be negotiated by the supply and demand sides independently. The successive introduction of the two major policies will promote the merger of the two long-standing coal price systems, which is conducive to the complete marketization of coal prices.
Coal is the basic energy in China, accounting for about 70% of primary energy production and consumption. Electric coal is the main part of coal consumption, accounting for more than half of the total consumption. Deepening the market-oriented reform of thermal coal and connecting production and transportation needs are of great significance to ensure the stable supply of thermal coal and the normal production of electricity, and meet the needs of economic development and people's lives. First, it is conducive to fair competition in the market, second, it is conducive to reducing circulation costs, and third, it is conducive to the development of coal enterprises.
Crude oil: shock ahead. The international oil price will go out of a wave of inverted V-shaped market, which is high first and then low. In the first half of the year, under the background of the gradual resolution of the fiscal cliff in the United States, investor confidence slowly recovered, and oil prices will run at a high level supported by geopolitical factors. In the second half of the year, the increase of global oil market supply will obviously exceed the growth of demand, and at the same time, the world economy may be in turmoil again, and international oil prices will be under full pressure.
In the latest World Energy Outlook report, the International Energy Agency said that the global energy pattern is changing, which may have a far-reaching impact on the energy market. In addition to the further reduction of nuclear energy in some countries and regions such as Japan and Europe, and the popularization of wind and solar energy technologies, the biggest change in the global energy supply pattern is the increase of American oil production and the reshaping of Iraq's oil industry.
According to the report of the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil consumption in developed countries continues to shrink, and the average daily consumption of crude oil and other fuels in OECD countries will decrease by 500,000 barrels in 2065,438+02, and will continue to decrease by 200,000 barrels in 2065,438+03. This means that American oil production will continue to increase in 20 13 years, but at the same time, oil demand will continue to decrease, so oil prices may go down.
The situation in the Middle East remains the biggest variable. Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, believes that the situation in the Middle East will become the biggest variable in the 20 13 crude oil market, which may lead to a "fork in the road" in the crude oil market. The opposition between Iran and western countries on the nuclear issue will not disappear in the short term. 20 13 The results of diplomatic efforts and the development of economic sanctions will still determine the direction of the Iranian nuclear issue and affect the mood of the crude oil market. At the same time, although Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, there are still conflicts in Gaza. Many experts believe that the fragile ceasefire agreement may not last long, especially when Egypt, a regional power, is unable to take care of itself in the face of large-scale demonstrations against the president, and tensions in the Middle East are likely to erupt. In addition, the turmoil in Syria has lasted for nearly two years and has not improved. The internal turmoil in Syria has a "spillover effect". The conflict between the government and the opposition armed forces once led to the border conflict between Syria and Turkey, which aggravated regional tensions. The fragile peace situation in North and South Sudan is also facing challenges at all times.
Iron ore: integration and exploration. First of all, from a macroeconomic point of view, the rebound of iron ore is limited. Steel as industrial food, iron ore as the most important raw material component of steel, and iron ore as a commodity are closely related to the economic situation. It is an established fact that China's economic growth is slowing down, and it will take time for foreign countries to solve the crisis. Therefore, from a macro point of view, the fluctuation pressure of iron ore is relatively high.
Secondly, from the current profit of the steel industry chain, the profit rate of the iron ore industry will continue to be compressed, and the price of iron ore will continue to be under pressure. The growth of international iron ore production will be unstoppable, and the change of iron ore supply and demand will guide the profits of all links in the steel industry chain to develop in a more reasonable direction.
Finally, judging from the cycle of iron ore price operation, iron ore will continue to fall after consolidation. Since 20 1 1, iron ore has fluctuated within a narrow range of about 170 USD, with the lowest price of115 USD. 20 12 iron ore fluctuated within a narrow range of 140 USD. At present, iron ore fluctuates within a narrow range of 1 10 USD. After a period of consolidation, it is expected to continue to find a new balance. However, considering the impact of the exchange rate and the high production cost year by year, the decline will be weakened, and the low point will try to test the $80 mark.
Column 16 China-Singapore iron ore spot trading platform was built and started.
20 12 65438+ 10/6, Beijing International Mining Rights Exchange, China Iron and Steel Industry Association and China Minmetals Chemical Import and Export Chamber of Commerce jointly initiated the establishment of China iron ore spot trading platform. The launch of China iron ore spot trading platform indicates that China has made an important breakthrough in exploring a fairer and more transparent iron ore pricing mechanism. China is the world's largest importer of iron ore. Relying on the position of the world's largest iron ore trade share, building an iron ore spot trading platform and giving full play to the role of the market in finding prices will help to promote the formation of a fair, just, reasonable and transparent international pricing mechanism for bulk mineral products and promote the healthy, orderly and stable development of the iron ore market.
China iron ore spot trading platform 20 12 was officially launched on May 8th. At present, 193 enterprises at home and abroad have become members of the platform. As of February 7th, 10 14, the total declared volume was 85.3804 million tons, with 44 transactions, with a total turnover of 5.5649 million tons, US$ 69 10/00000 yuan and RMB 210000 yuan.
China is the largest spot iron ore market in the world, and the current iron ore index pricing model is based on CIF China. China iron ore spot trading platform will provide more abundant and convenient trading channels for Chinese and foreign enterprises, reduce the sharp fluctuation of iron ore prices caused by malicious speculation, promote the formation of a fair, just, reasonable and transparent international iron ore pricing mechanism, and promote the healthy, orderly and stable development of the iron ore market.
BHP Billiton established Singapore Global Iron Ore Spot Trading Platform (Global Ore), which was launched on May 30th, 2065438+02. GlobalORE, born out of Singapore's GlobalCOAL trading platform, is the largest coal electronic trading platform in the world at present, and its shareholders include BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Anglo-American Group. GlobalORE was initiated by Baosteel group, BHP Billiton, Glencore, Valin, Minmetals, RioTinto and Vale. Since 2065438+February 2002, Singapore global iron ore spot trading platform has conducted 2 1 transactions, almost all from Australia, with a total turnover of about 2.255 million tons. It is worth noting that the transaction price of 20 1 18 USD/ton of 62% fine ore on February 4th and 20 13 years1October 8th has reached 65,438 USD/ton.
Copper: It rises steadily. 20 13 the global economic environment will be relatively relaxed; Government policies have greatly reduced the tail risk of financial markets, and at the same time, the debt risk in Europe will also be greatly reduced; After a long recovery process, the US economy may become the main source of global economic growth, while the degree of economic recovery in China still depends on policy support. According to the fundamental analysis, there are many bullish factors in the 20 13 copper market: macroscopically, the macro-economy of 20 13 is gradually improving, and copper prices are bullish; Microscopically, the global refined copper market of 20 12 is in short supply, and the tight supply and demand situation of 20 13 will be improved, which will be bad for copper prices; The increase of 20 13 copper processing fee will stimulate the increase of refined copper output and weaken the support for copper price; 20 13 copper consumption in China is expected to improve, with more copper prices; The inventory of the three major exchanges has increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has a high inventory, which is bad for copper prices; Based on the above analysis, the copper price of 20 13 is affected by many factors, and the copper price of 20 13 may rebound, and the overall center of gravity may be expected to move up.
Gold: Fluctuation upward. First of all, the world economic recovery has weakened, the growth rate is less than expected, the unemployment problem has been difficult to improve for a long time, and the uncertainty of the development of emerging economies has increased. Economies such as Europe and the United States can only constantly weigh the policies of cutting budgets and stimulating the economy, and the uncertainty increases. Secondly, under the background of weak economic recovery, the global monetary system continued to be loose, Europe began the second round of repurchase, the United States began the third round of quantitative easing, Japan also began to increase the money supply, and loose monetary policies in developing countries also released a lot of liquidity. Third, the public debt problem in developed economies is difficult to solve. To solve the problem of high debt, only by relying on loose monetary policy and the "hole-filling" mode of monetary growth will the gold price rise be supported for a long time. Fourth, global central banks continue to buy gold and increase gold reserves. The scale of additional purchases in 20 13 years may exceed 20 12, which will generally enhance the monetary value of gold and enhance its high support. Fifth, the gold investment market is still optimistic. In the past decade, the price of gold has continued to rise and the return on investment has been continuously improved. Compared with commodities, stocks and dollars, the profit advantage of gold is very obvious.
Rare earth: shock ahead. From the perspective of supply, domestic supply will remain steady and rising. First of all, the supply of rare earths in Baotou and Ganzhou tends to be stable, and most of the mergers and acquisitions have been completed. There will be no major actions that affect the supply, such as ownership or environmental review. Secondly, the southern provinces have accelerated the pace of rare earth development, and there are ionic rare earth mines in southern provinces such as Fujian, Guangxi and Guangdong. The construction of rare earth mines in Minmetals Development, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Guangdong Guangsheng, China Aluminum Industry, China Nonferrous Metals and other provinces is nearing completion, and it is expected that large-scale supply will begin on 20 13.
At the demand level, international demand is subject to the uncertainty of the international economic environment. It is predicted that the international demand for rare earths will remain stable in 20 13 years, and there will be no large-scale increase. The demand in the domestic market may increase slightly due to the slow recovery of related industries, such as home appliance industry, communication equipment manufacturing industry, electronic information industry and green energy industry under the guidance of urbanization concept. However, because rare earth raw materials mainly exist in the form of "industrial monosodium glutamate", unless these industries are liberalized on a large scale, the domestic demand for rare earths will continue to grow steadily, and the growth rate is expected to remain at around 5%.
There are still uncertainties in the market. For example, new progress has been made in the case of WTO's restrictions on China's rare earth exports, which will have an impact on the market in a short time, but this sudden impact is also short-term. In 20 13 years, the rare earth market will remain stable, and the price will fluctuate or increase slightly compared with 20 12.