The relationship between supply and demand directly affects the market pricing of commodities. When the relationship between supply and demand is in a temporary balance, the market price of commodities will fluctuate within a narrow range. When the relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced, the price will fluctuate greatly. In the aluminum futures market, investors can pay attention to an indicator reflecting the change of aluminum supply and demand-inventory. The inventory of aluminum is divided into reported inventory and non-reported inventory. Declared inventory, also known as "explicit inventory", is the inventory quantity of aluminum in the designated delivery warehouse regularly announced by the futures exchange. Unreported inventory mainly refers to the amount of aluminum held by global manufacturers, traders and consumers. Because there is no special organization to count and publish these inventories, it is also called "hidden inventory".
2, the influence of alumina supply
The cost of alumina accounts for about 28%-34% of the production cost of aluminum ingots. Because the international alumina market is highly concentrated, most alumina (80% ~ 90%) in the world is sold through long-term contracts, so there are very few alumina available for trading in the spot market. Take China as an example. Before 1997, China's alumina deficit was mainly purchased in the international spot market without long-term contracts. 1997, China Nonferrous Metals signed a 30-year long-term supply contract with Alcoa, with an annual supply of 400,000 tons, and the price was set according to a certain proportion of the original aluminum price of LME. In recent years, the continuous expansion of electrolytic aluminum production in China has led to the increasing domestic demand for alumina. At present, about two-thirds of imported alumina needs to be purchased from the spot market. China buys a lot of alumina in the international market, which directly pushes up the international alumina price. According to statistics, in 2004, China imported 5.87 million tons of alumina, up 4.8% year-on-year, and the average import price was $340 (the cash cost of producing alumina abroad was less than $65,438 +0.20). Simply calculated, in 2004, only alumina was directly imported, and the cost of foreign alumina suppliers was as high as 65438. The rising price of alumina has led to a sharp increase in the production cost of electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, a sharp decline in economic benefits, and most enterprises have fallen into meager profits or losses.
3. The influence of electricity price
Electrolytic aluminum industry is also called "electric tiger" industry. At present, the average power consumption per ton of aluminum in aluminum plants at home and abroad is controlled below10.5 million kwh/ton. The experience of aluminum ingot production in western countries shows that when the electricity cost exceeds 30% of the aluminum production cost, it is considered as dangerous production.
In 2004, the average power consumption per ton of aluminum in China Aluminum Plant was14,683 kWh/t, which was 347kwh/t lower than that in 2003, which was the year with the largest decline in the average comprehensive AC power consumption of electrolytic aluminum industry in China. Nevertheless, because China is a country with energy shortage, the average electricity price of aluminum enterprises has risen to more than 0.355 yuan/kWh several times, which is nearly 4 cents/kWh higher than that in 2003, which means that the production cost of aluminum enterprises per ton of aluminum has increased by 600 yuan. Therefore, the power factor not only affects the production of electrolytic aluminum in China, but also affects the price of aluminum market at home and abroad.
4, the impact of the economic situation:
Aluminum has become an important non-ferrous metal variety, especially in developed countries or regions, and the consumption of aluminum is highly related to economic development. When the economy of a country or region develops rapidly, the consumption of aluminum will also increase simultaneously. Similarly, the economic recession will lead to a decline in aluminum consumption in some industries, which in turn will lead to aluminum price fluctuations. In addition, the price fluctuation of some metals related to aluminum, the fluctuation of international oil price and the change of industrial policies in various countries will all have an impact on the price of aluminum.
5. Impact of import and export tariffs and international exchange rate:
International aluminum trade is generally priced and settled in US dollars. In recent years, the impact of the dollar trend on aluminum prices is obvious. The impact of import and export tariffs on aluminum prices is particularly prominent in China. China is a big importer of alumina. Before joining WTO, in order to protect domestic alumina industry, the import tariff was 18%. According to the WTO agreement, China adjusted the alumina tariff to 12% in 2002, 10% in 2003 and 8% in 2004. Before the export of electrolytic aluminum, you can enjoy the export tax rebate of 15%. In 2004, China reduced 15% to 8%. Since 2005, not only the 8% tariff has been completely abolished, but also the 5% tariff has been increased. According to preliminary calculation, the cancellation of export tax rebate will increase the export cost of aluminum enterprises by 600 ~ 1000 yuan/ton, and the imposition of 5% tariff on export aluminum ingots will increase the export cost of enterprises by 770 yuan/ton (estimated at the international market price in early 2005). It can be seen that changes in tariffs and international exchange rates affect the price of aluminum market.
6, the influence of aluminum application trend change:
Changes in the usage and quantity of aluminum ingots in automobile manufacturing, construction engineering, wire and cable and other major industries will have a significant impact on aluminum prices. Taking the automobile manufacturing industry as an example, the relevant institutions predict that by 20 10, the demand for aluminum for cars and vans alone will increase by 80%, that is, from the current 5.8 million tons per year to 105 million tons.
7. The influence of the improvement and innovation of aluminum production technology on aluminum price;
With the rapid application of computer technology in aluminum electrolysis industry, the in-depth study of physical field and the establishment of related mathematical models in the process of electrolysis are promoted, which makes the design of electrolytic cell more reasonable and the capacity of electrolytic cell greatly increased. At present, the global electrolytic aluminum industry has a maximum production capacity of over 300KA, current efficiency of 94-96%, and DC consumption per ton of aluminum has dropped to13000-13400 kW h. It can be predicted that with the popularization and wide application of intelligent electrolytic aluminum technology with large capacity and high efficiency, the production cost of aluminum will continue to decline.