Text/Chen Ge
The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee will be held next month (June 65438 +2020 10). One of the core contents of the meeting is to prepare the national development plan for the 14 th Five-Year Plan.
Generally speaking, the core guiding ideology of each plan is profoundly judged by the state according to the internal conditions and external environment at that time, and this core ideology will also have many far-reaching influences on all aspects of the national economy in the next five years.
It can be said that the Tenth Five-Year Plan is an important part of the national economic plan and a programmatic document for the national economic development in the next five years (202 1-2025).
To deeply understand the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, we only need to review the influence of the 13th Five-Year Plan on us in recent years.
Looking back at the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", the idea of taking supply-side structural reform as the core has basically run through the whole five years, which is also of far-reaching significance to the market structure.
At the beginning of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", China's macro-economy as a whole showed outstanding characteristics such as downward economic growth, excess low-end products and insufficient supply of high-end products.
Therefore, promoting supply-side structural reform has become the core guiding ideology during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.
2015165438+1October 10 The eleventh meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group first put forward the concept of supply-side reform.
On October 26th, 2065438+200665438+/KLOC-0, the 12th meeting of the Central Leading Group for Finance and Economics studied the structural reform plan on the supply side, emphasizing that the fundamental purpose of the structural reform on the supply side is to improve the level of social productivity, and proposed to improve the supply structure by means of de-capacity, de-inventory, de-leverage, cost reduction and short-board.
After the guiding scheme came out, under the strong urging of the central government and the promotion of local governments, various places staged the game of "swallowing small" one after another. State-owned enterprises and central enterprises seized the historic opportunity to expand again, and their performance soared, which changed the impression of "big and useless" in one fell swoop.
Small enterprises mainly in cyclical industries such as steel and coal, especially small enterprises with low quality, are particularly fierce in this blow to capacity and inventory.
20 16 and 20 17, with the clean-up of the industry, the price of natural resources soared rapidly.
On October 22nd, 2065438+200665438+/kloc-0, the Standing Committee of the State Council determined the measures to further resolve the excess capacity of the coal industry, and demanded that the crude steel production capacity be reduced by 1 0/500 million tons on the basis of eliminating the backward steel production capacity of more than 90 million tons in recent years.
Affected by this, Shaanxi coal price (comprehensive) rose from 230 yuan/ton in 20 16 to 455 yuan/ton in March 20 19, with the highest increase of 98%.
In February of the same year, the State Council issued "Opinions on Resolving Excess Capacity of Iron and Steel Industry to Realize Development from Difficulties", and the main rebar futures company rose from 1860 at the beginning of 20 16 to the highest point of 44 18, with the highest increase of 140%.
After a year of transmission, the price of natural resources soared, which also made the profits of traditional natural resource-based enterprises increase significantly. Because the demand has not changed and the supply is constantly tightening, the whole industry has entered a huge "boom cycle".
Good performance will naturally be reflected in the company's share price, and let us see the miracle of 17 "the master of the universe".
A glimpse of the whole leopard, stepping on the wheel of the times can really make you walk sideways.
The performance of natural resources, such as steel and coal, is the most typical epitome of the policy-guided production capacity and destocking at that time.
In 20 17, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises decreased by 35 BP. From the first quarter of 20 17, the asset management scale of securities firms reached the highest scale 18.77 trillion yuan, and then it shrank all the way. By the beginning of 2020, it was only 9.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 50% in less than two years.
Behind this set of data is a series of positive "deleveraging" measures taken by the state to prevent financial systemic risks.
Looking back, although positive financial deleveraging has laid a good foundation for the domestic capital market to resist the increasingly turbulent international situation and develop healthily for a long time, in the process of deleveraging, a bull bear appeared in the A-share market, which was more blunt than the market at 15.
After falling below the low point of 2638 stock market crash, the fund lost more than 30%, and the more it fell, the more it made up. It can be said that during the whole year of 18, no shareholder was very happy.
With the significant progress made in the previous tasks, in the second half of 20 18, the short board of infrastructure became the core of supply-side reform.
At the end of 20 18, infrastructure construction such as 5G, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet was added for the first time. Subsequently, the new infrastructure direction represented by 5G became one of the core directions of the market in 20 19.
The most typical ones are PCB Shuang Jie, Shennan Circuit and Hudian.
Both of them are driven by the policy. Since the second half of 20 18, there has been a large-scale market that runs through one and a half years.
Policy, policy or policy.
Having said that, you should understand that these general directions are basically "an invisible hand" pulling the market forward.
Stepping on the node of the times will naturally make everything smooth and get twice the result with half the effort; Going against the trend will only make you frustrated and struggling.
Clear the fog and see the general direction of policy orientation, which is exactly what I want you to learn in the "news interpretation" column.
Only by learning to follow suit can we be invincible.
Looking forward to the 14th Five-Year Plan, the situation facing China is even more severe.
After decades of rapid growth, the original economic growth model is no longer applicable. It is difficult to say whether the L-shaped growth rate is vertical or horizontal now. The deterioration of macroeconomic environment will seriously impact the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, which will restrict the high-quality development of China.
Under the background of trade protectionism and anti-globalization, China will face more severe external pressure, and the pattern of Sino-US double giant game will run through the whole "14 th Five-Year Plan" and even a longer period in the future, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has a long way to go;
With the further decline of "demographic dividend", the decline of labor supply and the acceleration of aging, it will form great resistance to China's economic development, and pose new challenges to urbanization, social security funds, old-age services, medical health and so on.
……
Knowing that the road ahead is full of thorns, we must meet the difficulties.
Because the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will be realized in the hands of our generation.
During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the dual-cycle system of expand external demand and domestic demand will become the main line with high probability.
Among them, "filling the shortcomings of key technologies" and "consumption upgrading" will be the top priority.
20 19, 10 In June, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee requested that the national resources for "building a new system for tackling key national core technologies under the conditions of socialist market economy" could be concentrated in "stuck areas" such as core components (components), key basic materials, advanced basic technologies and industrial technology bases.
In May 2020, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau pointed out that "it is necessary to pay close attention to the strategic emerging industries and future industrial layout, upgrade the industrial base and industrial chain modernization, give play to the advantages of the new national system, and strengthen scientific and technological innovation and technological research."
Vigorously develop direct financing, improve the ability of capital to serve the real economy, secondary market and primary market-related industries and directions.
During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the financial market reform will be more and more enthusiastic, and we may see a truly "orderly advance and retreat" registered capital market system, and may attract a large number of outstanding China stocks to be listed in China.
At present, the urbanization rate of China has exceeded 60%, and the urbanization of structural development will become more and more prominent.
To give full play to the comprehensive driving role of central cities and urban agglomerations will naturally bring about industrial development of consumption expansion and upgrading+centralized infrastructure investment+high-end factor agglomeration.
The metropolitan strategy of "one hour" metropolitan area may continue to deepen.
It can be seen that housing prices will only have certain advantages/safety mats in those areas where resources are concentrated.
The last year of the 14th Five-Year Plan is 2025, which is also the most important first decade of our "Made in China 2025" plan.
This program is the program of action for China to implement the strategy of building a powerful country, and it is also the focus of the United States' strong suppression. With the end of the American election and the second negotiation of Sino-US trade agreement, the programmatic document "Made in China 2025" will inevitably generate more intense sparks.
It can be said that the Tenth Five-Year Plan period is the key five years for China to become a powerful country. If you become China, you may be thoroughly remoulded, update your engine and realize the second economic take-off. If not, it is possible to replicate the tragedy of Japan and reproduce the lost decade.
When you know the determination of the country, when you understand the general trend of the future, when you understand the direction of policy orientation, you will embark on the express train of wealth.
Together with the National Games, March forward.
Let's look forward to the arrival of the "14th Five-Year Plan" document.