The U.S. economy may have fallen into recession because of the slowdown caused by COVID-19-related concerns. Zhu Chaoping, global market strategist of Morgan Asset Management, said that under the dual influence of the epidemic and oil prices, the debt risks of American companies may be exposed, thus increasing the risk of deleveraging and economic recession.
2. Since 2009, US stocks have continued to rise, and the valuation has overdrawn the future of the US economy.
After the financial crisis in 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve implemented the quantitative easing policy (QE), which subsequently attracted a large amount of global funds to enter the market, immediately put the United States on the right track, and then continued to attack technology stocks and financial stocks. It is the long-term money-making effect that makes more peripheral funds flow to US stocks, so that US stocks will get out of the long-term bull market.
However, the US stock market plummeted, with technology stocks leading the decline. The rapid rise of technology stocks has caused concern in the market. In addition, some previous policy actions in the United States have made enterprises worried about the future trade prospects, further aggravating the selling of US stocks.
3. The imbalance of American industrial structure.
In the past two decades, the United States has gradually implemented the strategy of "de-industrialization": on the one hand, it has gradually transferred labor-intensive industries to developing countries with lower production costs, such as India and Vietnam. On the other hand, the domestic development of service industry has led to the gradual hollowing out of American industry, the labor force has shifted from manufacturing to service industry, and the real economy has turned to virtual economy.
The sluggish real economy and the rapid development of the virtual economy have made the American economy top-heavy. As a result, the labor cost, operating cost and profit acquisition of American manufacturing industry are inversely proportional. At the same time, under the recent global virus attack, all the physical producing countries were passively impacted at the same stage, and the virtual economy lost its physical support and the risks were exposed.
Global economic issues:
The global economy is only in a temporary recession, although the epidemic will have a certain impact on China's economy and the world's economic development in the short term. However, the epidemic will neither fundamentally change the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy, nor fundamentally change the internal close relationship between China and the world economy, nor change the pattern of the global value chain.
Extended data:
Reject:
European stocks: The three major European stock indexes fell across the board on the 2nd. The CAC40 index of Paris stock market closed at 5786.74 points, down 1 18.43 points, or 2.0 1%. The DAX index in Frankfurt, Germany fell 27 1.70 points, or 2.05%, to 12964.68 points. The Financial Times average price index of London Stock Exchange 100 stocks closed at 7285.94 points, down 60.59 points, or 0.82%.
International oil price: new york oil price rose on the 2nd, and the price of new york light crude oil for delivery in June 2020 rose by 0.79 USD to close at 55.96 USD per barrel. Brent crude oil futures in February closed up 0.43 USD, or 0.7 1%, at 60.92 USD/barrel.
Gold: In February 2020, the most active gold futures market in the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by USD 3.5 to close at USD 0.469.2 per ounce/kloc-0, a decrease of 0.24%.
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