Main influence
Subprime mortgage began to appear in the mid-1980s. In the mid-1990s, with the development of information technology and the improvement of rating rules, subprime mortgage loans developed rapidly. It is estimated that the interest rate of 600 billion subprime mortgages issued by American financial institutions in 2006 was low in the first two years, and it was determined according to the London Interbank Offered Rate two years later, which means that the monthly interest paid by borrowers may increase by 50% or even more. Therefore, the delay rate of subprime mortgage loans is significantly higher than that of excellent housing mortgage loans.
After 2005, subprime mortgage risks began to appear. In 2006, with the slowdown of economic growth, the decline of real estate prices and the rise of interest rates, the debt repayment burden of borrowers increased rapidly. The risk of non-traditional mortgage loans increased rapidly, and the overdue rate of subprime mortgage loans began to rise. At the same time, the subprime mortgage crisis has affected securities companies, investment companies, mutual funds, hedge funds, commercial banks and insurance companies that hold bonds issued on the basis of subprime mortgage, and they will all suffer heavy losses due to the falling prices of such bonds. The collapse of the US stock market price quickly spread to the global stock market, which led to the global stock price decline, and also affected China's economy through different channels.
1, inflationary pressure increased.
In 2008, China is still facing great inflationary pressure, and the price situation is grim, which may change from structural growth to obvious inflation. Inflationary pressure is mainly composed of the following factors: since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the US government has adopted a loose monetary policy of continuously lowering interest rates to avoid economic recession and a sharp rise in unemployment rate. On the one hand, it devalues the exchange rate of the US dollar, leading to an increase in the price of international commodities denominated in US dollars; On the other hand, it has further aggravated the problem of excess liquidity of global funds. After a large amount of funds poured into commodity futures markets such as grain and oil, the prices of related commodities rose sharply. At the end of 2007, the New York Mercantile Exchange wheat futures price reached 885 cents/bushel, up 76.6% year-on-year. The US Department of Energy predicts that the average international crude oil price will reach $85 per barrel in 2008, and the average price increase will be about 1 times higher than that in 2007. Rising oil prices will increase raw materials, electricity production costs and transportation costs in manufacturing and service industries, thus pushing up CPI and PPI. The increasing inflation risk requires the government to adopt a more active austerity policy, but concerns about the US economic recession may make it difficult for it to implement a more active austerity policy.
If the United States cuts interest rates and China raises interest rates, it will increase the pressure of dollar depreciation and make it more difficult for China to carry out macro-control. China still needs to strengthen market infrastructure, develop direct financing and diversify risks.
2, the impact on China's exports.
The United States is China's main export market, and China's trade surplus with the United States is one of the main sources of China's trade surplus. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States will lead to a decline in US consumer spending and investment spending, and a decline in GDP, which may further lead to a decline in US imports and a decline in China's exports to the United States. Other things being equal, the reduction of China's exports will lead to the decline of China's GDP. According to customs data, since August 2007, although China's export trade has continuously hit new highs, the growth rate of exports to the United States has slowed down. China's exports to the United States in June 5438+00 were $2 10 billion, lower than the $210/390 million in September. At the same time, the data shows that China's exports to the United States increased by 15.5% from 5438+08+00 in June, and this data is1-September. The growth rate has slowed down significantly. The profit growth of foreign trade enterprises may slow down, because the slowdown of the world economy caused by subprime loans will also lead to a decline in external demand. The appreciation of RMB may further accelerate the polarization of export processing industry, and reduce the repayment rate of some export enterprises. It is estimated that the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on China's economy will reach its peak in the first half of this year.
3. Impact on China stock market
At present, the short-term impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's financial market is limited, but in the long run, the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis may reduce the external demand for China's economic growth, have an impact on export enterprises, and then indirectly impact the performance of listed companies in related industries. With the increasingly strong linkage between domestic and foreign financial markets, the continuous turmoil in developed countries' financial markets is bound to have a negative transmission effect on China's domestic financial markets. On the one hand, it will directly aggravate the turmoil in the domestic financial market; On the other hand, the continuous turmoil in the external market will affect the long-term expectations of economic entities on the China market from the psychological level. Taking the beginning of 2008 as an example, the huge subprime mortgage losses exposed by some internationally renowned large financial institutions triggered a global stock market crash. On June 5,438+10, the global stock market value was 5.2 trillion US dollars, of which the developed markets fell by 7.83%, the average decline in emerging markets was 12.44%, and China A-shares were among the top losers in the world with a decline of 2 1.4%. The uncertainty brought by the continuous turmoil will affect the flow of funds in the market. In addition, the interaction between the Hong Kong market and the mainland market is getting closer and closer, and the continuous turmoil in the Hong Kong market is likely to cause substantial pressure on the mainland market. With the increasing proportion of direct financing, the turmoil in the domestic financial market is likely to cause the adjustment of domestic asset prices, thus further affecting the stability of the domestic financial market. The A-share market has been falling continuously since it reached the peak of 6 124 last year, and once fell below the bottom of the 5.30 incident in March this year, reaching the lowest point of 3,353, which proves that the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on China's capital market is slowly emerging. Based on the subprime mortgage crisis, the most important impact on the economy is the liquidity of funds, which will be very destructive to the current situation of China's financial market and may even affect economic development for a long time.
4. Impact on China real estate.
It is precisely because of the loose monetary policy in the United States that the US property market continues to rise. When the demand is insufficient to meet the rapid growth of housing prices, the US property market has a "turning point". The adjustment of monetary policy failed to save the financial disaster caused by the property market, which sounded the alarm for the property market in China. Although China's mortgage is not graded, it does not mean that the quality is excellent, and there are many loans with sub-prime mortgage standards. The continuous monetary tightening policy in 2007 also shows the government's attention, so the monetary policy in 2008 will still be tight in this respect. If we consider excess liquidity again, the degree of tightening can be imagined. Personally, the rapid development of China's property market is highly dependent on monetary policy, so the property market will be in a trend of shock adjustment under the condition of continuous tightening of monetary policy, and it is not ruled out that it will go out of the downward trend in the short term.