Traders in Northeastern ports are complaining because some people have moved corn from the production area to the port. Due to the downturn in the market, the sales price of corn is lower than the mainstream price in the market, which makes them very angry. This is not Are you here to smash the market? In particular, second-class grain has fallen into decline, and only first-class grain continues to be strong. At the same time, there are almost no bulk ships. Most of them are mainly container-loaded, and some can be shipped.
Shandong corn fell below the 2,800 yuan mark, and Linqing golden corn fell in price even without a car. At the same time, COFCO, Xiangyu and others are losing money selling grain.
#corn#
The inventory of 4.8 million tons in the Northeast Port is there. In the first half of the year, the editor said that no goods of such a large magnitude would be sold, and everyone wanted to wait until July. According to the market situation, many grains cannot survive the summer. Now, whether it is dried grains or naturally dried grains, there are different levels of bad grains. The blame is on the abnormal weather. This is obviously an excuse for yourself.
At the same time, many grains signed in early contracts at Northeastern ports have not been shipped, proving that the purchasers do not need the grain now.
We should have taken precautions against these uncontrollable factors long ago, but everyone had expectations, so these were not taken into consideration. Now we can only shoot ourselves in the foot and swallow the bitterness.
The latest national corn price on July 23
Henan Huaxing alcohol: 1.42 yuan/jin.
Down by 7 points.
Shandong Dazecheng Biology: 1.39 yuan/jin within 17%.
Falled 2 points and 5 cents.
Fukuan Biology: 1.38 yuan/jin.
Down by 2 points.
Qingyuan Food: 1.42 yuan/jin.
Falled 1 point and 5 cents.
Luzhou Group Shandong Company: 1.44 yuan/jin.
Falled 1 point and 5 cents.
Shandong Xiangrui Pharmaceutical: 1.41 yuan/jin, down 1 point and 5 cents.
Ronghai Grain Technology: 1.435 yuan/jin.
Falled 1 point and 5 cents.
Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical: 1.402 yuan/jin.
Falled 7 cents.
Xiwang Starch: 1.44 yuan/jin.
Down by 2 points.
Henan Hanyong Alcohol: 1.435 yuan/jin.
Lost 1 point.
Baolingbao biological: 1.393 yuan/jin.
Falled 6 cents.
Anqiu Lemon Biochemistry: 1.47 yuan/jin, down 1.5 points.
Yishui Dadi: 1.42 yuan/jin.
Lost 1 point.
Shandong Fuyang Biology: 1.399 yuan/jin.
Zhonggu starch: 1.375 yuan/jin.
Fall 5 centimeters.
Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.43 yuan/jin.
Lost 1 point.
Chengwu Dadi: 1.385 yuan/jin.
Lost 1 point.
Binzhou Jinhui: 1.4 yuan/jin.
Fall 5 centimeters.
But one thing we must also note is that the gaps in the data table are visible to everyone and are certain, but there must be some things that we cannot see. In the early period, the price of corn in Northeast China rose to At almost 2,800 yuan/ton, the gap has been reflected and has been digested, so we can't stick to this gap all the time. The price has already reflected the gap.
There is an old saying: Talking about supply and demand without price is also false supply and demand.
As prices change, the balance sheet also changes at any time. The corn price of 2,600 yuan/ton is different from the corn price of 3,000 yuan/ton. The direct manifestation is that the supply has not changed. , but the demand has changed a lot, which we can see.
What we can’t see is that the price of corn last year rose from the end of September last year to the end of June this year. It has risen from 2,500 yuan/ton in the previous period to more than 2,800 yuan/ton, so we cannot always focus on the gap. 2,500 You can call a gap when the price rises to 2,800 yuan/ton, but the gap will definitely change. These must be things that everyone ignores.
At the same time, the sharp decline in domestic corn futures shows that the premium expectation given in the early stage was a wrong expectation. When the futures price rose to around 3,000, various positive factors were superimposed on it. , especially the favorable external environment, the surge in international U.S. wheat, corn, and U.S. soybeans, emergencies in the international situation, reduction in grain production, etc., the withdrawal of domestic substitution, tight supply, etc. are all reflected in futures out, but those good expectations eventually returned to reality.
The sales volume of domestic pig feed continues to decline, which means that pig breeding continues to be ineffective. Until the price of pigs rises sharply, it shows that the number of pigs has indeed dropped a lot.
The deep processing enterprises have shown a weak market situation since the beginning of the year, and have been showing a downward trend since the beginning of masks.
But you don’t need to be too pessimistic. If the price of live pigs returns to 25 yuan/kg, the editor personally thinks that the price of corn is not too pessimistic.
Because corn has the largest output, largest planting area, and largest usage among domestic cereals, as long as corn is moved, various industries will be involved.
So the editor is not pessimistic about corn in the later period. This is what I have always thought. When everyone is optimistic about not selling, I feel that danger is coming. When everyone is pessimistic, I Think corn isn't that bad.
People are divided into three, six or nine levels, and meat is divided into three levels. Different people are exposed to different industries, and the information they see or hear is different, which leads to subjective self-analysis of market conditions. judge.
But no matter what, the current market needs everyone’s encouragement, and we must not sell grain in a panic.
This is not a sentimental thing. When the market can't get any lower, the corn market will get better, and the reason for optimism is - the increase in demand.