In terms of crude oil supply and demand, although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a new round of production reduction agreement on February 7, 20 18, the global economic outlook in 20 19 was not good, which made the international crude oil market still face the pressure of oversupply.
Recently, IEA, EIA and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have successively issued 20 18 and 12 monthly reports. On the demand side, IEA predicts that the global crude oil demand will increase by 6.5438+300,000 barrels per day and 6.5438+400,000 barrels per day in 2065.438+08 and 2065.438+09 respectively. EIA predicts that the global crude oil demand will increase by 1.54 million barrels per day and 1.52 million barrels per day in 2065 and 2065 and 438+09 respectively. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also predicts that the growth rate of crude oil demand will slow down next year. It is predicted that the global demand for crude oil will increase by 6.5438+0.5 million barrels per day to 98.79 million barrels per day in 2065.438+09, and the growth rate of global demand for crude oil will remain at 6.5438+0.2 million barrels per day.
On the supply side, the IEA monthly report shows that the daily output of crude oil of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries keeps increasing due to the record high daily output in Saudi Arabia. The daily output in June was 33.03 million barrels, an increase of 654.38 million barrels compared with that in June. Moreover, IEA warned that if major oil producers strictly implement the production reduction agreement reached between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, and Canada decides to force production reduction, there may be a supply gap in the global crude oil market before the second quarter of next year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicts that the supply of non-OPEC countries will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day and 2160,000 barrels per day in 20 18 and 20 19, respectively. However, EIA lowered the expected growth rate of US crude oil production by 20,000 barrels per day in 2065 and 4.38+008,800 barrels per day in 2008, and greatly increased the growth rate of US crude oil production in 2065+065.438+08,000 barrels per day to 65.438+020,600 barrels per day, which is expected to be in the United States.
In addition, EIA also predicts that the average global crude oil production in 20 18 will exceed the 654.38+billion barrels per day mark, which is 330,000 barrels per day higher than the overall global crude oil demand; It is predicted that the global average crude oil output will rise to1.0184 million barrels per day in 20 19, which is 230,000 barrels per day higher than the global crude oil demand.
In the first three quarters of 20 18, under the expectation of US sanctions against Iran, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased production rapidly in an attempt to ease the market's concerns about the supply side. According to the data of the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased from 32.28 million barrels per day in June to 32.9 million barrels per day in June, an increase of 620,000 barrels per day. Russian crude oil production increased from11240,000 barrels per day in June to11600,000 barrels per day in June, an increase of 360,000 barrels per day. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia increased their daily output by 980,000 barrels in four months. Finally, at the beginning of 1 1, the details of the second round of US sanctions against Iran were issued, giving eight countries and regions an exemption period of 180 days, and the sanctions were far below market expectations. At the same time, the increase in production of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia has directly led to the rise of global crude oil inventories and the collapse of crude oil since 1.
In terms of natural gas, BP released a report predicting that the global natural gas production will still maintain a rapid growth by 2020, while in terms of demand, the developed countries in Europe and America have limited room for growth, and only China's natural gas consumption accounts for a relatively small proportion of primary energy, with a large room for growth. However, judging from the supply and demand situation in the winter of 2065 438+08-2065 438+09, it is difficult to reproduce the "gas shortage" in 20 17.
In the first three quarters of 20 18, China increased the import of natural gas in large quantities, and a large number of LNG receiving stations were put into use, and the peak-shaving gas volume in reserve before the heating season increased to ensure winter supply. Among them, North China was the main area lacking gas last year, and many measures have been taken to ensure supply this year.
Judging from NYMEXWTI crude oil futures and HenryHub natural gas futures, the downward pressure on the price of 20 19 has not been lifted, and it is possible to strategically hold short positions in NYMEXWTI crude oil futures and HenryHub natural gas futures. Because the supply and demand of natural gas is still tight and the pressure of crude oil supply is high, the domestic natural gas consumption prospect is optimistic, and you can also hold a long combination of NYMEXWTI crude oil futures and HenryHub natural gas futures.