The $50 position that was once regarded as "impossible to be broken" is really going to be "lost" this time.
18, the futures price of light crude oil for February delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 1.76 USD per barrel to close at 50.48 USD, the lowest point in 20 months. The intraday oil price once fell below the $50 mark and fell to $49.90. Brent crude oil futures for March delivery on the London International Petroleum Exchange fell 1.03 cents per barrel to close at $5 1.75. Yesterday, in electronic trading in Asia, new york oil price dropped by 65,438+02 cents to 50.36 USD/barrel.
According to the report released by the US Department of Energy on the same day, in the week ending June 5438+1October 12, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.8 million barrels, which greatly exceeded market expectations. Gasoline inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels; Inventories of other refined oil products such as heating oil and diesel oil increased by 900,000 barrels.
Insiders pointed out that the continuous warm winter weather in some parts of the United States reduced the consumption demand of heating oil in the United States, which led to a substantial increase in crude oil inventories in the United States, which was the main reason for the decline in oil prices that day.
Liu Yuelai, an analyst in the R&D department of Du Nan Futures, told the Morning Post that the plunge in oil prices was mainly driven by six factors: first, the weather factor, and the warm winter climate led to a decline in the demand for heating oil in the United States; Second, the dollar rebounded sharply. Generally speaking, the dollar is negatively correlated with oil prices. Third, the output reduction target of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has not been achieved. The original plan was to reduce production by 6.5438+0.2 million barrels, but only by 500,000 barrels. Fourth, the inventory of refined oil products in the United States has increased substantially; Fifth, the economic growth of the United States has slowed down; Finally, international funds are bearish on the crude oil market on a large scale, and more than 30,000 empty orders have been added in the past two weeks.
Surprisingly, despite the "diving" pattern of oil prices, jim rogers, an investment guru, said recently that after this round of "adjustment", oil prices will continue to rise to the high of 100 USD.
Rogers successfully predicted the commodity super bull market since 1999, and he has been supporting the long-term bull market of oil, metals and grain.
Excluding all kinds of "conspiracy theories", in a more serious discussion, the two most common explanations for the recent surge in oil prices are: 1, the economic rise of BRIC countries has broken the balance between supply and demand in the oil market, so prices have risen; 2. OPEC controls the monopoly price of production.
Both of these explanations have some truth, but not all. 1. The economic development of BRIC countries, especially China, has increased the demand for oil, but it has not broken the current balance between supply and demand in the international market; 2. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has existed for decades. Why has the oil price suddenly gone up since 2005 when there is no local war and the supply and demand in the oil market are roughly balanced? In addition, there is not enough evidence to prove that OPEC manipulated the futures price of new york crude oil, while the futures price of new york crude oil is usually the main indicator to determine the current price.
So, where is the reason for the rise in oil prices?
In the early 1950s, Dr. M. K. Hubbert, an American geologist, put forward a hypothesis that the oil production curve was generally normal. This hypothesis holds that, due to the irreproducibility of oil resources and the life cycle of oil fields, the oil production will peak within a period of time after the proven reserves reach the peak, and then the oil production will gradually decline. 1956, he made an amazing prediction that American oil production would reach its peak in 1970. Then the oil production in the United States really began to decline after 197 1 reached its peak.
When will the world oil output reach the peak of harbert like the United States?
Some scholars estimate it will be in 2008- 12, and optimistically think it will be in 2020.
As for the service life of oil, a report by BP believes that the world's oil can still be mined for 40 years, while the most optimistic American energy agency predicts that there will be another 90 years. However, this American energy agency predicted several years ago that the oil price would stabilize at $60/barrel.
If Hubbert Peak's hypothesis holds and there is a peak in recent years, it is inevitable that oil prices will rise all the way.
Therefore, due to the non-renewable mineral resources such as oil, the price of oil no longer depends on the pricing principle of "cost+profit rate". It can break away from the current short-term market supply and demand fundamentals, reflect the scarcity of resources in advance, and be affected by the price of potential alternative energy sources (such as solar energy), and be priced by alternative costs. For example, solar energy as an alternative, the current electricity price should be 5 yuan/kWh.
In this way, as long as oil is difficult to replace, especially before there is a fundamental breakthrough in technology and economy in the new energy used by vehicles such as cars and planes, oil prices may only be higher, not the highest!
In recent 3-5 years, the oil price has risen to $300/barrel, so we don't have to make a fuss!