Offshore RMB soared more than 1600 points for two consecutive days, breaking through 6.80, and onshore RMB also rose nearly 700 points yesterday, which surprised the market.

According to the analysis, the sharp rise of RMB in this round may stabilize the RMB in stages in the short term and have a far-reaching impact on the gold, stocks, bonds and real estate markets in the medium and long term.

Ren Zeping: It's good for the stock market and gold.

Ren Zeping, chief economist of Founder Securities, pointed out that the weakening of the US dollar and the L-shaped bottom of the domestic economy provided a fundamental environment for the short-term stabilization of RMB. As the negative factors ebb, the dawn appears, which is good for the stock market and gold.

2017 65438+1October 20th Trump officially took office. There are many uncertainties in the implementation of his economic policy. The market readjusted its expectations, and the US dollar index surged back. Gold may have a chance in 1-2 quarter.

With the reversal of Trump effect to ease the pressure on emerging markets, the central bank increased liquidity, the money shortage ebbed, the exchange rate stabilized, the regulatory authorities coordinated to solve the "radish chapter" incident, the supply-side reform was overweight, the negative factors subsided, and the bond market stabilized. The stock market has benefited from the improvement of corporate profits and supply-side reforms, and its fundamentals are solid. Callbacks provide buying opportunities. Anti-inflation, welfare reform and oversold growth stocks are the main lines of the future.

Qu Qing: Good for the bond market? Not necessarily!

On Thursday, offshore RMB continued to appreciate sharply, which led to the appreciation of onshore RMB and the rebound of treasury bonds futures. There is indeed a view in the market that the pressure of RMB depreciation in the early stage is great, and the pressure of exchange rate on interest rate formation leads to interest rate rebound; Then if the RMB starts to appreciate, it means that interest rates have room to go down. However, Qu Qing, chief bond analyst of Huachuang Securities, disagreed with this view. He thinks:

First of all, the reason for the appreciation of offshore RMB lies in the high interest rate of funds, which leads to the reversal of short-selling power. In essence, high interest rates are used to stabilize the exchange rate. Then high interest rate is the premise of exchange rate stability, not the result of exchange rate stability.

Secondly, the appreciation of offshore RMB is only a staged rebound in the depreciation trend, and it has not reversed the market's expectation of RMB depreciation, so the constraint of RMB depreciation on the downward trend of interest rates still exists in the past.

Finally, as we analyzed before, what can really alleviate the pressure on bonds depends on the self-stability of the RMB with the improvement of fundamentals. For example, the situation of excess liquidity has been alleviated and the economy has stabilized. At present, it is a passive appreciation after high interest rates, which means that bond interest rates, as a victim of exchange rate stability, have no downside.

Of course, it is undeniable that the strong rebound of the RMB in the short term has indeed eased the pressure on bonds emotionally. However, judging from the rhythm, the pressure of bond adjustment may increase again after the phased appreciation of RMB.

Jiang Chao: To ease the pressure of depreciation, we should control the house price for a long time!

Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, has a longer-term view. He believes that the RMB will remain stable in the short term. But in the long run, stabilizing the exchange rate depends on curbing the real estate bubble and accelerating reform.

Compared with the United States in terms of economic growth, surplus and interest rate, RMB is superior to the United States. However, in the past few years, the price increase in China has far surpassed that in the United States, and the total market value of China's real estate has surpassed that in the United States, but the total economic output is only about half that of the United States, which means that the pressure of exchange rate depreciation mainly comes from the real estate bubble.

Because China has a huge trade surplus with the United States, Trump once said that he would impose a 45% tariff on China and list China as a currency manipulator, which means that if China with a huge surplus continues to depreciate, it will face increasing external political pressure.

In the long run, to solve the pressure of RMB depreciation, we must strictly control the growth rate of housing prices, intensify supply-side reform, and find new impetus for economic growth.

Han: The key is to reverse the long-term depreciation expectation.

Han, a RMB researcher at China Construction Bank, also believes that short-term RMB bears are easy to attack, but it is difficult to completely reverse the expectation of RMB depreciation that has permeated the market for nearly three years by relying on short-term behavior.

Once enterprises and individuals understand the current rapid rise of RMB as an expedient measure in a special period or a pure market accident, the expectation of depreciation will be easily stimulated.

For the balance of payments security of big countries, it is of limited significance to pay attention to how many short positions can be blown up by the soaring RMB in the short term.

What is really important is how to maintain the consistency of policies, and clearly convey the rules of RMB two-way fluctuation to the market through RMB fluctuation, so that the market will no longer rely on past depreciation experience to guess the future trend.

(The above answers were published on 20 17-0 1-06. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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