First, global energy competition is intensifying.
In recent years, especially after the Iraq war, the competition for oil and gas between major countries and multinational oil companies has intensified. First of all, the competition for oil and gas pipelines has become the focus. The focus of competition is mainly in the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. Central Asia-Caspian Sea region is the traditional sphere of influence of Russia. In order to control the oil and gas transportation arteries in Caspian Sea and Central Asia, Russia insists on the northward plan. On the other hand, in order to achieve the strategic goals of competing for regional oil and gas resources, squeezing Russian strategic space, containing the rise of China and preventing Iran, the United States advocates the southward plan. Starting from the strategic purpose of oil security, Japan is competing fiercely with China for the Russian Far East oil export pipeline to gain the initiative of Far East oil, contain China and win over Russia. Secondly, the competition for oil and gas resources is fierce. In Central Asia, West Africa and the Middle East, major multinational companies have launched fierce competition for oil and gas resources. At present, in the Central Asia-Caspian region, western multinational corporations led by the United States not only basically control the right to explore and develop resources in this region. Through political, economic, diplomatic and military activities, Russian influence has been weakened and China's energy cooperation with Iran and Kazakhstan has been blocked. On the other hand, with the help of rising international energy prices, Russia's economic strength has gradually increased, and its influence and control over the region have been continuously strengthened. In Africa, the United States, the European Union and Japan have adjusted their African strategies one after another, strengthened their control and cooperation with major African resource countries through various channels, competed for the dominance of oil and gas resources development, and squeezed out emerging developing countries such as China and India from entering the African oil market. Third, the market competition is cruel. The rise of the Russian-Caspian oil circle, the development of new oil fields in the Gulf of Guinea and Iraq's return to the international oil market have broken the original oil and gas market pattern and triggered fierce competition for the market within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), between OPEC and non-OPEC, and between producers and consumers.
Second, the hegemony of the United States is challenged and impacted.
The dominant position of the United States in the world energy pattern is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, the dominant position of petrodollars. From 65438 to 0975, the United States and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached an agreement to price oil in dollars, which tied the dollar and oil together, and most of the world oil transactions were priced and settled in dollars. The second is the right to set oil prices. Since 1980s, the New York Mercantile Exchange and London International Petroleum Exchanges have almost monopolized the major oil futures trading in the world, and dominated the discourse power of world oil prices. The third is the control of oil resources. The United States is the largest oil consumer in the world, accounting for 42% of the total global consumption. As an important participant in the international energy market, the United States has long placed its energy policy in an important position in the global strategy, and its funds have been involved in almost all oil and gas producing areas and countries in the world. At present, the United States has actually controlled nearly 70% of oil resources in Central Asia, the Middle East, West Africa and North America through military strikes, economic cooperation, investment, consultation and dialogue.
After the Iraq war, especially in 2006, faced with the changes in the international political and economic situation, some oil-producing countries have carried out a series of fruitful bilateral oil exploration, exploitation and trade cooperation with important crude oil importing countries such as China and India, established a series of oil exchanges denominated in euros or local currencies, and increasingly considered using euros to price oil transactions, so as to steadily increase their income and enhance their right to speak in the international oil market. In 2007, the subprime mortgage market crisis broke out in the United States, further weakening the status of the US dollar, and the dominance of the United States was challenged and impacted.
Third, the position of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been weakened, but it will remain the pillar of the world oil market.
In recent years, the United States, the European Union and Japan have tried to manipulate and replace the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by establishing western strategic oil reserves and promote its internal division, which has deepened the contradictions and conflicts between OPEC member countries and other oil and gas producing countries, and OPEC's control over oil prices in the international market is not as good as before. From 1973 to 2006, the control power of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the world oil export decreased from 53% to 4 1.7%, and may continue to decline in the future. Today's Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not only faces the challenges and impacts of non-OPEC oil exporters represented by Russia, but also faces the greater threat brought by the recovery of Iraq's oil production capacity. The ability of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to control oil prices in the international market will be greatly reduced, and there will be a new situation in which international oil prices are based on market supply and demand, with the United States and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as the main producers, and major non-OPEC oil producers such as Russia participating in the regulation of oil prices. Although the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has declined, it is still very important. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (except Iraq) still accounts for 65.4% of the world's total oil reserves, and the market-oriented operation for many years has also formed a closely related interest relationship within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. In any case, OPEC will remain the pillar of the international oil market in the future.
Fourth, the status of non-OPEC oil producers represented by Russia is gradually rising.
Nowadays, Russia, Mexico, Africa and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries have taken advantage of the sharp decline in Iraq's oil production and the surge in international crude oil prices caused by the Iraq war to increase their production substantially, and seized a lot of market share from OPEC, which has greatly increased their influence. After "9. 1 1", Russia took advantage of the new changes in the world energy market and launched its energy diplomacy in an all-round way with the general idea of "breaking through North America, stabilizing Western Europe, competing for the Caspian Sea, opening the East and challenging the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries". Its influence and position in the world energy market have risen rapidly, and it has become an important oil and gas producer and exporter in the world. Since 2000, Russian oil production has increased by 6.83% annually. In 2006, Russia's oil output was 480 million tons, accounting for 12.3% of the world's total oil output, second only to Saudi Arabia. In the same year, its natural gas output was 6 1, 2 1 100 million cubic meters, accounting for 2 1.3% of the world's total output. As a big energy supplier, Russia has been deprived of its pricing power, which is unacceptable for its rising status. It is actively taking measures to break the existing international oil pricing system, establish PEBCO brand in new york Stock Exchange, and plan to establish Russian oil exchange.
Figure 7- 1 shows the production and consumption of Russian oil from 1996 to 2006.
Fig. 7-11Russian oil production and consumption from 996 to 2006 (source: bpstatisticalreviewofworld energy, June 2007)
5. The strong growth of oil demand in developing countries, represented by China and India, has become an important force in reshaping the world energy pattern.
After the reform and opening up, China has gradually embarked on the road of industrialization, and oil consumption has increased rapidly year by year. Apparent oil consumption (crude oil apparent consumption+net import of refined oil) increased from 65438+65438+495 million tons in194 to 349.8 million tons in 2006, with an average annual growth rate of 7.34%, making it the second largest oil consumer in the world after the United States. At the same time, limited by domestic oil reserves and production level, the oil production increased slowly, and basically remained stable after 1997. In order to meet the domestic oil consumption demand, China began to import a small amount of oil from 1988, and became a net oil importer from 1993, with a net import of 98 1000 tons. By 2006, the import volume reached191million tons, and the dependence on foreign countries increased from 1994 to 65438. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in the report "Global Economic Outlook 2030" that if governments adhere to the current policies, 45% of the increase in global energy demand by 2030 will come from China and India. The total oil imported from China and India will increase from 5.4 million barrels per day in 2006 to 1.965438+ 10,000 barrels per day in 2030, which is more than the total oil imported from Japan and the United States at present. Among them, by 20 15, China's net oil import will increase to 7 10/00000 barrels; by 2030, China's oil import will be the same as that of the EU, and China's oil import will reach13100000 barrels/day, and its dependence on foreign countries will reach 80%. By 2025, India will surpass Japan and become the third largest net oil importer in the world after the United States and China. By 2030, the daily net oil import will steadily increase to 6 million barrels per day, and the dependence of oil on foreign countries will reach over 90%.
In order to ensure the needs of domestic economic growth, China, India and other countries have also identified the safety of oil resources as the main goal of their national security strategies, and have successively joined the competition for oil resources in hot spots. While strengthening its relations with Iraq and Saudi Arabia, China has greatly increased its imports of crude oil and petroleum products from Iran, and established good energy cooperation relations with Kazakhstan, Russia, Sudan, Venezuela and other countries, striving to diversify its crude oil supply. India not only imports a large amount of crude oil from Saudi Arabia every year, but also cooperates with Iran at various levels under the pressure of the United States. At present, India has acquired shares in oil and gas exploration projects in Sudan, Vietnam, Myanmar, Libya and other countries, with a total investment of 3 billion US dollars. India also plans to invest $654.38 billion annually in oil and gas projects in the Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America before 2065.438+05.
Figure 7-2 shows the oil production, consumption and import of China from 1994 to 2006. Figure 7-3 shows the external dependence of China's oil consumption from 1994 to 2006.
Figure 7-2 1994 ~ 2006 Oil production, consumption and import in China (Source: ① Oil production and consumption data from World Energy, June 2007 edition ② Oil import data from China General Administration).
Figure 7-3 1994-2006 China's external dependence on oil consumption (source: ① consumption data of BP World Energy Statistics Review in June 2007 ② oil import data of People's Republic of China (PRC) and China of General Administration of Customs).