No matter which A-share is bought, it will fall, and if it is sold, it will definitely rise. Friends around me have tried every time!
National Day Law of A-shares: The accuracy of forecasting the September 10 market is 70%.
According to the statistics of historical data, it is found that the market of A shares 10 has a high positive correlation with the performance in September: if it rises sharply in September, the market of 10 will also rise sharply. In the September market of the Shanghai Composite Index near 13, the gains in 2007, 2006 and 2009 ranked in the top three, which were 6.39%, 5.65% and 4. 19% respectively, and the market corresponding to 10 also rose by 7.25% and 4.88 simultaneously. On the contrary, in the year when the Shanghai Composite Index plunged in September, the probability of a plunge in June 65438+ 10 is also very high.
During the period of 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell nine times in September and June. In this paper, the rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index from 200 1 to 20 13 in September and June are counted. It is found that there is a strong positive correlation between the rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index in September and 10 in the period of 13, that is, the Shanghai Composite Index rose in September, and 10 is easy to follow. During the year of 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell nine times in September and June, with a probability of 69.23%.
From the specific statistics, the same rising situation is: in September 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.65%, and in June, it rose by 5,438+10, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.88%; In September 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 6.39%, and in June, it rose by 7.25%, reaching a record high of 6 124.04 points. In September 2009, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4. 19%, and the increase of 5438+00 in June expanded to 7.79%. On September 20 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.64%, and in June 12. 17%. In the same direction, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.78%, 5. 1%, 3.86%, 0.62% and 4.32% in 20001,2002, 2003, 2005 and 2008 respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by1.
In the years without the same fluctuation, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.64% in September of 20 13, and fell by 10/0.52% in September of 20 10; 20 12 In September, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.89%, and 10/0 fell by 0.83%; On September 20 1 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 8. 1 1%, and 10 rose by 4.62%.
Analysts believe that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.89% on September 20 14 (as of September 26). According to the above statistical law of 13, the Shanghai Composite Index will easily follow 20 10 in June this year. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.89% in September this year, second only to the 6.39% increase in September 2007 of 13, and slightly higher than the 5.65% increase in September 2006. From June 5438 to 2006 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.88%.
Law of the two sessions of A-shares: During the two sessions, the market performance is generally relatively dull.
According to historical statistics, A shares did not show an overwhelming upward trend during the two sessions in the last fourteen years. Therefore, from the perspective of probability theory, the two sessions do not necessarily mean an upward trend for A shares. However, this does not mean that the market of the two sessions will be absent and may be presented as policy beneficiary stocks.
According to historical statistics, during the 14 National People's Congress from 2000 to now, A shares rose 8 times and fell 6 times. Although the number of rises is more, the advantages are not obvious, and it is impossible to judge from the probability that the market tends to rise during the two sessions. Moreover, in the five sessions from 2009 to the present, the market fell three times and rose two times.
Regardless of the number of ups and downs, the performance of the market during the two sessions can be described as relatively dull. In these fourteen sessions, the longest day was 16 days in 2008, and the shortest day was 1 1 day. During this time span of at least one week, the market has risen and fallen below 3% for 8 times, 3%-4* for 2 times, and over 4% for 4 times. Therefore, on the whole, the market is relatively stable during the two sessions, and the ups and downs will not be too great.
The Law of A-share Receiving Yin-Yang Cattle to Bear
After the Spring Festival, the green annual line ends in the shade and the open annual line ends in the sun. Every time A shares are adjusted by 20%, it becomes a bear market.
A-share one-step three-turn rule
If it is the practice of A-shares to take it one step at a time, then the average cycle of four years is its unique cycle law. From the historical investigation of the A-share market for more than 20 years, we can find a special law about the trend: about four years. For example, after the market peaked at 1993, it experienced a four-year downturn, and then ushered in a 5. 19 market at 1997; 5. 19 market began to rise for nearly four years, and 200 1 reached a high of 2245. After this high point, the market experienced another four-year bear market of 0 1-05, and finally ushered in a big bull market in 2006-07. From the peak of 3478 in 2009 to 65438+February in 2003, the market has been adjusted downward for four years and is completing a historical cycle of reincarnation, which indicates that a historic change is coming.
Objectively speaking, domestic and foreign stock markets follow certain laws. Although sometimes the bear market is long, it will eventually end. Bull-bear cycle is not only a reincarnation, but also an inevitable pattern of market trend, with a spiral development. If the adjustment has been more than six years since the peak in 2007, far exceeding the historical limit, then the next prosperity is brewing, and the market itself has accumulated upward momentum. Going out of the downturn in the future will be a high probability event!
A-share world cup law: the stock market will generally fall.
1994 During the World Cup, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 527 points to 4 13 points, a decrease of 2 1.63%.
1998 During the World Cup, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 1422 to 1360.
During the 2002 World Cup, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 15 15 to 1455, and finally stood at 1700 with the blowout on June 24th.
During the 2006 World Cup, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 1695 to 15 12.
Historical data shows that the quadrennial World Cup is the curse of global stock markets. According to the historical data of American SPX, in the past 14 World Cup, the market rose only three times, and the historical average increase in that month was-1.65%, which was significantly lower than the average increase of 0.3 1% in June of the past 56 years.
A-share supervision law
A shares have a very interesting phenomenon! As long as the government regulates the market, it will fall. As long as the government gives up, A shares will soar!
A-share inertia law
The principle of Newton's law of inertia is the same. The characteristic that an object keeps its motion state and direction unchanged is called inertia. In the stock market, the stock price is rising, so if there is no big change, the stock price will continue to go up; The stock price is falling. If there is no big change, the stock price will continue to go down. This is because when the stock price trend goes up, most people are optimistic about the market outlook, so those who buy are reluctant to sell, and those who don't buy are rushing to buy, which makes the stock in short supply and naturally should rise; On the contrary, when the trend goes down, most people are not optimistic about the market outlook, so those who buy are rushing to sell, and those who don't buy are afraid to buy, which makes the stock supply exceed demand and naturally continues to fall.
A-shares will turn upside down.
If it rises much, it will naturally fall; If it falls much, it will naturally rise. This is the same as what the Romance of the Three Kingdoms said at the beginning: long-term separation must be combined, and long-term separation must be combined. I believe everyone knows the usage of KDJ indicator. One of the important functions of KDJ indicator is overbought and oversold. Overbuying means that people were very popular at that time. Does that mean you can buy it? Of course not, overbought is often the time to sell; On the contrary, oversold is often the time to buy. A phenomenon in the stock market also fully embodies this principle-risks are rising and opportunities are falling out.
A-share geomantic rotation method
We are not sure that overseas stock markets other than A-shares are not like this, but what is certain is that the A-share market has always turned around. A big market often has four stages, namely: (1) a few sectors or stocks start; (2) the market has entered a general increase; (3) stocks that have not yet risen have generally risen; (4) Leading sectors or individual stocks began to adjust in the early stage; (5) the market entered a general decline; (6) All other stocks fell. Therefore, in the A-share market, you can't catch the leader in advance, but you can catch up with the stock in hindsight and get good returns. You can't worry. When you are in a hurry, you will often let yourself chase the leading stocks that are about to fall, and miss the compensatory stocks that are ready to go. According to Christians, God is fair.
A shares violate the laws of the masses.
Old investors who are good at observing know such a rule, that is, when most people in the market are optimistic, the market may not necessarily rise; On the contrary, when most people in the market are bearish, the market may not necessarily fall. Why on earth is this? Technical analysis enthusiasts have always claimed that the market is always right; Fundamental analysis enthusiasts have always believed that the market is always wrong; Proponents of portfolio theory believe that the market is sometimes right and sometimes wrong. The same analysis of the stock market draws three completely different conclusions, which fully proves the uncertainty of the market.
Periodic oscillation law of A shares
This rule is very interesting. When the daily trend is upward, if the weekly trend is upward, then the short-term trend will be quite strong; If the daily trend is upward and the weekly trend is downward, then the market will only rebound slightly. What is the principle? This is because, when the weekly trend is upward, the market or individual stocks have gathered high popularity, and the market supply and demand are in short supply, so it will be easier for the daily line to rise; On the contrary, if the weekly trend is downward, from the medium and long-term trend, it shows that the popularity is bleak. Then, even if someone rushes to buy in the short term and makes the short-term trend stronger, if the long-term supply and demand relationship cannot be changed, the market will continue to decline. Similarly, we can draw the conclusion that the daily trend is downward, the weekly trend is upward, the daily trend is downward and the weekly trend is upward. To sum up, we can pay attention to the following two points: First, the daily line goes up and the weekly line goes up; Second, the daily line goes down and the weekly line goes up. There are two other forms that we should abandon: first, the daily line goes up and the weekly line goes down; Second, the daily line fell and the weekly line fell.
Static and dynamic crossing laws of A-shares
There are no stocks that have been rising, and there are no stocks that have been falling. After a stock has risen for a certain period of time, it always takes a little time to adjust, so as to wash out weak-willed retail investors and give yourself enough time to switch positions; After a stock has fallen for a certain period of time, it always takes a little time to move sideways and let greedy retail investors take over for themselves. In fact, this is the same as our running, running all the time and finally running directly to the coffin; It is not impossible to travel all over the world as long as there is food, sleep and a place to solve internal emergencies. The stock market is actually the same.
A-share Law: Bull Market Eliminates Low-priced Stocks
In the early stage of bull market, it is necessary to eliminate low-priced stocks, especially 1 yuan stocks, and the elimination of 1 yuan stocks is often regarded as a market standard for the demarcation between bull and bear. The bull market is characterized by eliminating low-priced stocks first. In 2007, it was said that 3 yuan shares, 5 yuan shares and 10 yuan shares would be eliminated, and then the bull market ended. It's the beginning of a bull market. It's easy to make money by speculating in low-priced stocks. Every bull market must eliminate low-priced stocks, which is the law of A shares and has not changed so far. In a bull market, all stocks will go up, just like in the past. After the growth stocks have gone up, it is normal and good for the low-priced stocks to go up. Steel and ST stocks are making up, indicating that the market is getting hotter and hotter. Shareholders' trading behavior, like cheap things, this tradition still exists Generally speaking, the rise of low-priced stocks such as steel is the outstanding performance in the later stage of the market.
There are two completely different cases of A-share extinction 1 Yuan-share, one in September 2005 and the other in February 2009. These two times were followed by bull markets. Now the 1 yuan shares in the A-share market have been completely wiped out. Does this mean that A shares will usher in a slow bull market? It is a long-term trend for A shares to fluctuate upward, and the core principle is that the assets of the whole society are allocated from real estate to equity. On the other hand, there are few companies that A shares can generate long-term returns for investors, and 2,000 of the 3,000 companies are unprofitable, so the stock market is easy to speculate. At this time, if the economic data is not good, the stock market will ebb, but after all, there are so many funds and the investment demand is still very strong. When the market falls to a certain extent or the stock supply increases, it will rise again. I think A shares are volatile for a long time, and short-term shocks are inevitable.
At present, the decline of the market is characterized by a bull market, which is characterized by slow rise and rapid decline, so the bull market is often a big yinxian line, and the bear market is often a big yangxian line. It's hard to say. A-share slow cattle market is rare. Generally speaking, low-priced stocks and junk stocks will be hyped at the end of the stage market, and this has happened in history.
Since the beginning of this year, first of all, low-value stocks have been heated up, and now low-value stocks have once again become a hot spot in the market. In the medium term, will the market of low-valued stocks continue, and will 2 yuan and 3 yuan stocks be eliminated in the future? At present, the macro fundamentals are not so good, but the stock supply is increasing, and the market should not be so crazy, or it is a slow-moving trend. Maybe the low-priced stocks have not been fully speculated, and it is still very early. In the bull market in 2007, many low-priced stocks doubled, tripled and quintupled. At present, low-priced stocks generally rise by 30% and 50%, while better stocks only double. At the beginning of the bull market, the market preferred low-priced stocks, such as cyclical stocks; Once the market rises, cyclical stocks will quickly reverse, and now the performance of cyclical stocks is not so good. It is too early to say that low-priced stocks have been eliminated. It may be in the medium and long term, but it is risky in the short term. 2 yuan shares and 3 yuan shares may be eliminated later.
Every explosion of low-priced stocks in history is inseparable from the stimulus of policies, such as the share reform in 2005, the 4 trillion investment in 2009 and the reform of state-owned enterprises this year. On the whole, what is your judgment on the market? Can you make an in-depth analysis of the market's policies and funds? The policy still supports the stock market rise, but it does not support the rapid, explosive and irrational rise, but supports the slow bull rise that fluctuates upward. In the long run, funds are still flowing in, but the premise of the inflow is that enough listed companies can produce reliable money-making effects. If everyone is holding a gambling mentality, then this round of rise will not last long.
China stock market has been a bear market for too long. For example, the price-earnings ratio of bank stocks is only three or four times, but the performance is very good, and the overall valuation of the stock market is very low; Now the economic data is not good, but the stock market may reflect it before the economic data; There is also a decline in risk-free interest rates and government bond yields. Many investment products have seen the money-making effect of the stock market. Now there are more and more investors opening accounts, and more and more funds are entering the stock market. This is a positive feedback. The market will turn. Now small-cap stocks and low-priced stocks will be speculated, and blue-chip stocks will definitely be speculated in the future. If you speculate in blue-chip stocks, the index will rise.
At this point in time, pessimism and optimism are not desirable, neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic. On May 30, 2007, the index increased by n times, and the index rose from more than 1000 to more than 3,000. Many small-cap stocks have risen five times, reaching 10 times, and now small-cap stocks have only risen by 30%. It's still early, so Shen Wan's statement is wrong. Shen Wan saw that the economic data is not good now, but when the economic data is good, the stock also fell. Are the American economic data good? However, the US stock market has gone up a lot. Our current economic data is not good, but the stock market may also be bullish. If you are not optimistic, how can there be so much money entering the market now? Judging from the economic data, it is untenable that Shen Yin countries will repeat the market on May 30, 2007.
Recursive law of A-share and inflation
Analyzing the relationship between A-shares and inflation in the past 20 years, it is clear at a glance that the CPI data of 1990 is 3. 1%, the CPI data of 199 1 is 3.4%, and the CPI data of 1992 is 6.4%. A shares have experienced two rounds of skyrocketing market. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 1.992 in May and 1.993 in February respectively. Inflation runs in the same direction as the stock market cycle. Obviously, moderate inflation is conducive to the operation of the stock market.
1993 inflation began to soar, and the CPI data of 14.7%, from 1993 to 1994, was in the stage of double-digit hyperinflation, among which the CPI data of 1994 was as high as 21.7. Subsequently, the CPI data of 1995 was 17. 1%. From 1994 to the beginning of 1996, the inflation rate was in the initial decline stage, and the stock market was also in the decline after the rebound. A shares began to bottom out, and now the situation of A shares is similar.
The CPI data of 1996 was 8.3%, and the CPI data began to fall below double digits. From 1996 to 1, the Shanghai Composite Index began to enter a bull market from 5 12. From 1996 to 1997, A shares rose by 65438+.
Assuming that CPI data below 0 is deflation, 3% is moderate inflation, over 5% is severe inflation, and over 10% is hyperinflation, it can be concluded that in the stage of moderate inflation, the stock market is positively correlated with inflation, and the rest is negatively correlated, that is, high inflation and low stock market; Inflation is low and the stock market is high.
This rule does not apply from 200 1 to 2005. During this period, the CPI data of 200 1 was 0.7%, in 2002 it was -0.8%, in 2003 it was 1.2%, in 2004 it was 3.9%, and in 2005 it was 6544.
After the split share structure reform was launched in 2005, the aforementioned laws of stock market and inflation came true again. In 2006, the CPI data was 1.5%, and in 2007, it was 4.8%. A shares were in a bull market two years ago. In June 2007, 5438+ 10, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the peak of 6 124, and then the CPI data in 2008 was 5.9%, and the highly valued A-shares plummeted. In 2009, the CPI data was -0.7%, and the increase of A-share Shanghai Composite Index in this year was by no means inferior to the bull market in 2000. 20 10, CPI data is 4.6%, and A shares are in a wait-and-see pattern of sideways consolidation. Once the CPI data breaks through the 5% moderate line this year, A shares will enter a bear market road of slow decline.
Combined with the valuation law of A shares, the law of stock market and inflation can be more clear: when A shares are in the low valuation stage, deflation and moderate inflation cycle, the probability of A shares entering the bull market is great; When A-shares are in the high valuation stage, the stock market will be driven by the inherent valuation law, which has little to do with inflation. When inflation is higher than the moderate line of 5%, A shares are basically in a weak state.
At present, the valuation of A shares is consistent with that of the Shanghai Composite Index at 998 points in 2005 and at 1664 points in 2008, which is a low valuation area. According to the four-year time law of the two bear markets from May 1992 to June 1996 in 2006 and from June 5438+0 in 2006 to June 2005,
A-share Olympic law: most of the time it is down.
During the five Summer Olympic Games in history, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded a cumulative decline of four times. In other words, the opening of the Summer Olympics is like a spell. The Olympic market has always been a hot topic in the A-share market. Every time we enter the Olympic time, the research report of the Olympic plate will be overwhelming. However, it is not easy to grasp the market of the Olympic plate. During the five summer Olympic Games since A-share 1990 was born, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by-1 1.98%, 2.55%, -3.5%, -3.48%,-1.82 respectively.
Short-medium-long law of A shares
The stock market is the dream place for most investors. It won't always be so weak, and it has its own rules. Therefore, summarizing the short-term, medium-term and long-term laws of the Shanghai Composite Index may be helpful for future operation:
First, the short-term method
In the past three months, the Shanghai Composite Index has been falling all the way. The basic path is: the external market fell sharply, and the next day we gapped and opened lower, and then covered the gap, but the rebound momentum was insufficient, hitting a new low again, and finally waiting for the next lower gap to open lower. This is an effective circular process. Since there is no gap left in this area in the past three months, we have reason to believe that for many parties, each gap is a short-term entry point, and the subsequent small withdrawal is also a short-term departure position.
Second, the medium-term method.
We can find that since the stock index futures, the interval swing index on the weekly line has a one-to-one correspondence with the fluctuation of the Shanghai stock index. Moreover, once the index is at the bottom, its corresponding Shanghai Composite Index will have a staged low point in the near future, although it lags behind. After a long period of observation, this method is quite effective. At present, the index has begun to move closer to the bottom. Although it may be passivated for a week or two, it is really low. Meanwhile, let's go back to the daily chart. If there is to be a decent staged rebound here, it must be as long as the last wave of decline. This position is probably below 2379, but this neckline position is not far from here. Therefore, as far as the medium-term law is concerned, it is getting closer and closer to the target position, which can be called the bottom area, but the sign of truly effective development should be that the Shanghai Composite Index stands on the 30-day moving average.
Third, the long-term law.
If we look back at the previous two big markets, one was 998 and the other was 1664, there is a rule in both markets, that is, they both fell below the monthly average 120. And generally will not fall below a large margin. If it falls below for a long time, the future evolution will be a reversal of the historical market. If the break time is not very long, the future evolution should be a staged rebound in the big market. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index 120 moving average stays at 2258 points, but this weekend, the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 2400 points, which is very close to leaving the 120 moving average.
In addition, judging from the annual K-line, the worst situation in China stock market in the past 20 years has only seen two consecutive negative lines. This year is the second annual K-line, and now it is the end of September. Therefore, if it is a bad situation, it will only weaken until the end of the year, but the probability of stabilization next year is strong.
This article was first published on other post-it platforms, and the specific time can't be elegant. The author's viewpoint also confirms the development law of China stock market. All kinds of hidden laws are constantly affecting the development trend of things, and the characteristics of laws are not obvious in a short time. Once stretched, the characteristics of this law will show magical power. In the stock market, there are no winners, only gains and gains. Come without indecent assault, how can people walk by the river without getting wet shoes? You haven't noticed that those big bosses are making profits every day, and in the end, people are imprisoned everywhere, so we know that the stock market doesn't always win the general. Take your time and don't worry.