Recently, methanol has risen at a high level, forming a three-legged situation in the northwest, mainland and ports. The general reasons are as follows: high cost of methanol from coal, weak traditional downstream demand, strong emerging downstream demand, reduced start-up due to environmental inspection, increased transportation cost due to foggy and snowy days, continuous depreciation of RMB exchange rate, high external price and low port inventory.

As far as the cost of methanol from coal is concerned

Most methanol plants in China are coal-based plants. This year, the increase of coal price is close to 300 yuan/ton. The calculation formula of coal-based methanol cost is 1.5- 1.7* raw coal +0.5- 1* fuel coal +(500-550) = theoretical production cost of coal-based methanol.

As a result, the cost of methanol raw materials increased by nearly 400 yuan/ton. Take northwest methanol as an example. At present, the cost of methanol from coal is close to 1.700 yuan/ton, which is so high. No wonder the price of methanol has been rising!

Traditional downstream demand is weak, and emerging downstream demand is strong.

In winter, the consumption of terminal board, water reducer and other products is reduced, and the traditional downstream formaldehyde starts 30-40% and dimethyl ether starts 20-30%, so the demand for methanol is weakened; Emerging downstream demand for olefins is acceptable. The expansion of China coal production and the overhaul of clean energy methanol plants in Yulin and Pucheng of China coal have brought good luck to methanol manufacturers in northwest China. A series of olefin demand leads to the shortage of methanol supply in northwest China. Although the olefin plants in Shandong Yangmei Hengtong, Shen Da, Ningbo Fude, Zhejiang Xing Xing and Nanjing Huisheng have reduced losses by 60-80%, the methanol consumption is still quite high.

Severe smog weather in the north forced environmental protection supervision to upgrade, and highly polluting coal enterprises were suspended, leading to an increase in the cost of downstream coal chemical products. Most methanol production enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei and Henan stopped production or reduced production due to environmental inspection devices. Around mid-June, 1 1, Xu Yang, Jacky and other enterprises in Hebei reduced production to varying degrees, and will further rectify or resume production according to local environmental conditions; In addition, due to the influence of Henan environmental supervision, Henan Zhongxin, Hebi, Jinkai and other enterprises stopped work for maintenance, and the time for returning to work was to be determined; Shanxi Fengxi plant failed, and Lubao, Jiao Shan, Jinfeng and other plants all reduced production. This has caused a shortage of methanol supply in North China in a short time.

Hazy days and snowy days lead to higher freight rates.

Recently, the prices of bulk liquid chemical products such as gasoline, diesel oil and blended oil have risen, and the profits are good. Some dangerous goods transport vehicles in Henan and Hubei began to transport gasoline, diesel oil, blended oil and other chemical products. There were fewer vehicles transporting methanol, and the freight rate increased. Snowfall and haze weather affect road traffic restrictions, which is not good for methanol transportation. This is also one of the factors that increase the freight rate of methanol. The sales volume of most manufacturers has decreased, and the shipments of traders to downstream terminals have also been affected. The inventory of downstream terminals is low and relatively out of stock.

Many places in the mainland are affected by smog and snowfall, which is good for the port market. The arbitrage window between Hong Kong and mainland opened and the price remained firm; The RMB exchange rate continues to depreciate, and the methanol price in the external market continues to be high, which leads to the shortage of imported methanol and the low inventory in the port, which is also the reason for the recent high consolidation of methanol prices in the port.