18 years old is a mature age, and it is also the age when Tesla began to harvest. Among the first batch of 1 10,000 vehicles, there were 367,500 vehicles in 20 19, and it is estimated that the sales volume of 500,000 vehicles may be completed in 2020.
The first "one million" is hard to come by.
With 654.38 million new cars rolled off the assembly line, Tesla became the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer. What outsiders see is remarkable achievements, but perhaps only Musk himself knows the real hardships best.
Tesla's first production car Roadster is a pure electric sports car based on Lotus Elise body, which is the same as the model that Musk sent into space by rocket. Since the company was founded in 2003, it took the early Tesla five years to achieve mass production of Roadster in 2008. Because it is aimed at high-end people first, the sales of Tesla's first model have achieved good results.
Following the mass production of Roadster in 2008, Tesla also released the second new car product Model in the brand history. S, the car was delivered in mass production at 20 12 four years later, and Tesla released the third new car model in the same year? X, three years later, the formal delivery began on 20 15. Followed by the model? 3. Model? Y, the second generation Roadster, and Semi electric trucks and Cybertruck electric pickup trucks.
From the delivery of the first new car in 2008 to the completion of 654.38+0 million off-line vehicles in 2020, Tesla I * * * took 654.38+02 years. During the period of 654.38+02, Tesla I * * released 8 products, which seemed to be very fast, but in fact only 3 products were delivered in mass production (model? S, model? X, model? 3; The old Roadster has been discontinued), even if it is the first1100,000 off the assembly line? Y also began to be delivered to users in the American market after March 15.
Factory capacity and supply chain capacity restrict the development of Tesla. Before the construction of the Shanghai factory, Tesla had only one factory in fremont, California. In 20 16 years, the annual production capacity of this plant is only about 6,543,800 units. After continuous expansion, it has exceeded the production capacity of 300,000 units in 20 19 years. Of course, the commissioning of the Shanghai factory in 2020 will bring great help to Tesla.
In addition to production capacity, the supply chain also restricts the development of Tesla. The power battery is the core component of Tesla. Tesla's power battery is basically provided by Panasonic, and its production capacity is naturally limited. In the mode of solving this problem, Tesla began to cooperate with LG Chemical on 20 19. Providing power batteries, Tesla announced cooperation with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. this year. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will become Tesla's third battery supplier, and Tesla will also produce its own batteries.
Do you think Tesla only faces the problem of insufficient production capacity and supply chain? Of course not. Although Tesla has an absolute advantage in the electric vehicle industry, it still loses money every year. Even if its share price rises, Tesla still loses hundreds of millions of dollars every year. In 20 19, the overall revenue was $24.578 billion and the net loss was $862 million. 20 18 earned $265,438+$46 million, with a net loss of $976 million. Of course, with the increase of production capacity and sales volume, Tesla's losses are also shrinking. After all, compared with the loss of $65.438+96 billion in 2065.438+07, Tesla's revenue has been developing in a very good direction.
How long will the next "one million" take?
With the first "one million", there will naturally be countless follow-up "one million". It is estimated that Tesla's global sales may reach 500,000 vehicles in 2020, which means that if it does not decline in 2002 1 year, the second110,000 vehicles can be achieved in 20021year. The first "one million" took 12 years, and the second only took 2 years!
This is something that scares Tesla, but things seem to be moving in this direction.
1, the production capacity has been improved.
Since 2020, Tesla's Shanghai factory has started large-scale production. The factory can achieve an annual output of 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles as planned. However, it has been reported recently that the plant will increase its production line and its production capacity may be increased to 250,000 units.
Tesla's second overseas factory has been opened in Germany, and it is planned to be put into production in July 20021year. The designed annual production capacity is 500,000 vehicles, and the initial planning is 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles. Of course, it is uncertain whether the German factory can be built and put into operation as quickly as the Shanghai factory, but at least Tesla has more and more factories and more production capacity. If the German factory is put into production, Tesla's annual production capacity can easily break through the scale of 6.5438+0 million vehicles per year.
Of course, Musk's ambition does not stop there. He said that he hopes to build super factories on every continent except Antarctica in the future. For an aspirant who wants to go to a space exploration technology company and the ground (Hyperloop super high-speed rail), this is not an impossible thing.
The current order situation has been enough for them to produce for several years.
Tesla's futures sales have accumulated enough orders for them to produce for a while, so they only need to expand their production capacity in the next two or three years.
The latest small SUV model? Y began delivery in the US market this month. Although I don't know how many orders it has, in the conference call in the second quarter of last year, Musk said Model? The total order of Y at that time was 6.5438+0.25 million units. Is the model currently reserved in China market? Y indicates that the production time is 202 1 year, and the American market reservation shows that the first delivery will start in March 2020, but it does not indicate how long it will take to book now.
Tesla's new pickup truck model Cybertruck released last year was well received. In February of this year, Tesla announced that the total order for the car exceeded 500,000. Although the down payment is only $65,438+000, it at least shows that the prospect of this car is very optimistic, especially the love of pickup trucks in the American market, which makes its sales not too bad.
In addition, Tesla also needs to digest orders for Roadster II models and semi-trailers. Although the number of orders is unknown, it is still enough for Tesla to be fully prepared, and Musk said that the annual production capacity of the new super sports car Roadster is only about 654.38+100000.
3. The China market is still in the development state.
The commissioning of Tesla's China plant will be the beginning of Tesla's gradual opening up of the China market. In 20 19, Tesla sold more than 360,000 vehicles worldwide, of which only 40,000 vehicles were contributed by China market.
China market sales are still affected by production capacity, model? 3 and model? The domestic market of Y is expected to be very good. With the commissioning of the China factory this year, the domestic sales volume is expected to reach 6,543,800+0.5 million.
4. What other models are there in the future? Will the price go down?
What is the cheapest model sold in the domestic market at present? The price of basic version 3 is also close to 300 thousand. Want to know that 300,000 yuan is enough to buy luxury B-class cars such as BMW 3 Series and Audi A4L, which are larger in size and space than Model? 3 be big and the brand should be luxurious enough.
Is it possible for Tesla to further reduce the price? This possibility is entirely possible. At present, Tesla's models and prices are largely limited by production capacity. Once the production capacity increases, more models will be introduced? The price of more entry-level products even dropped to 200,000. At that time, the living space of other brands of electric vehicles was really unimaginable.
This involves Tesla's future product planning. At present, Tesla doesn't have much information about future planning, but Model? S has been on the market for many years, and it has been eight years since the delivery time, but Musk said that the future models? S and Model? X won't have a vertical replacement product, only a small change.
This is not the rhythm that car products should have, but it may be the strategic layout of Tesla. Models? S and Model? Y does not affect users' purchasing confidence through minor changes, and at the same time focuses on new products. In addition, the key sales in the market will also have models? 3 and model? You take it. Finally, the current sales volume is guaranteed, and the new products in the future are also guaranteed.
Is Tesla overvalued or undervalued?
Tesla was officially listed on June 29th, 20 10, with an issue price of 17 USD and an opening price of 19 USD on the first day. By today's close (March 10), Tesla's share price has reached $645. If the market is not cold recently, Tesla's share price may be higher. In February this year, it reached the highest unit price of 968.99 US dollars.
According to the closing price of US stocks in March 10, Tesla's market value is 1 187 billion US dollars, while Toyota's market value is175.4 billion US dollars, Volkswagen's market value is about 776,543.8 billion US dollars (68.2 billion euros), BMW's market value is 38.9 billion US dollars and Mercedes-Benz's market value is 38.8 billion US dollars.
Overestimate? Tesla relies on four cars and limited market layout, with an annual sales volume of more than 300,000 vehicles. It seems incredible that it can easily leave Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen behind.
Underestimate? Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW are all following the pace of Tesla and accelerating the promotion of electric vehicle brands and products, but their sales are far less than Tesla's. Mercedes-Benz launched EQC, the first pure electric vehicle SUV model, last year, and its sales volume did not meet expectations.
From the perspective of environmental protection and sustainability, electric vehicles may not be the best substitute, but at least in the context that it is difficult for fuel vehicles to make revolutionary breakthroughs, electric vehicles have become a new possibility, and this possibility has been carried forward by Tesla. Tesla's first batch of 654.38+million vehicles not only became the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer. Tesla wants electric cars to be the dominant player.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.