The holiday mode was started at the end of the year, and the performance of the US dollar was sluggish last week. The US dollar index has fallen by more than 2% so far this month, which is bound to hit its biggest monthly decline since April. The temporary weakening of the dollar has provided support for the prices of commodities denominated in dollars such as crude oil.
2. As of February 25th, 65,438, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased by 3 to 538, the fifth decrease in the past 6 weeks. In that week, the total number of active oil and gas wells in the United States decreased by 9 to 700, a decrease of 1 140 compared with the same period last year.
3. The latest inventory data released by us energy information administration (EIA) on Wednesday (65438+February 23rd) shows that as of the week of June 5438+February 28th, the crude oil inventory in the United States decreased by 5.877 million barrels, and Li Xinjie expected to increase by/kloc-0.083 million barrels, and the current inventory reached 484.8 million barrels, a decrease of 65438. The gasoline inventory increased by11.110,000 barrels, which was lower than the expected increase of 1.38 million barrels. The inventory of refined oil including diesel oil and heating oil decreased by 66 1 1,000 barrels, and it is predicted to increase by 20 1 1,000 barrels; The average daily import of crude oil in the United States decreased by 65,438+0,046,5438+0,000 barrels. In addition, the utilization rate of oil refining equipment decreased by 0.6% to 9 1.3%.
Basic negative factors
After the Christmas weekend holiday, oil prices fell, and the supply of crude oil and oil products in the international market still far exceeded demand. The price trends of gold and oil are positively correlated, because gold is regarded as a tool to hedge against inflation caused by oil prices.
2. Curtin, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan, said that the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in June was 5438+February, which hit a new high since July this year; The University of Michigan's 65438+February expectation index hit a new high since June this year; In February, the consumer confidence index rose by 65,438, mainly due to the decrease of inflation rate, the boost of real income and the increase of consumers' confidence in the purchase plan of household durable goods.
3. Under the threat of Saudi Arabia's strategy of resolutely maintaining production or even increasing production, Russia's crude oil production is rising steadily, and the share gap between Saudi Arabia and Russia in global crude oil production is narrowing, and the current gap is 654.38+10,000 barrels per day.
4. The Monthly Report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries points out that the output of the organization has reached the highest level in more than three years. Last week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its near-record production target unchanged, trying to squeeze American producers out of the market through this move, although the oversupply in the oil market depressed oil prices.
Li Xinjie: Analyze the factors that affect the trend of crude oil price.
Factor 1: crude oil demand
Li Xinjie believes that the demand for crude oil mainly depends on the level of world economic development and changes in economic structure, the development of alternative energy sources and the application of energy-saving technologies.
1, global oil consumption is obviously positively correlated with global economic growth rate. Global economic growth or unexpected growth will affect the international crude oil market price. On the other hand, the abnormally high oil price will inevitably hinder the development of the world economy, and the slowdown of global economic growth will affect the increase of oil demand.
2. The cost of alternative energy will determine the upper limit of oil price. When the oil price is higher than the cost of alternative energy, consumers will tend to use alternative energy. Energy conservation will alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in the world oil market. According to Li Xinjie, all countries are vigorously developing renewable energy and energy-saving technologies, which will inevitably have an impact on the long-term trend of oil prices. At present, the data of crude oil demand mainly depends on the oil demand of industrial powers such as the United States, such as the monthly rate of industrial output and the PMI value of manufacturing industry.
Factor 2: crude oil supply
The factors affecting supply mainly include world oil reserves, oil supply structure and oil production cost.
1, oil supply must be based on oil reserves. In the past few decades, the proven reserves of world oil resources have been increasing. However, due to the non-renewable oil resources, the International Energy Agency predicts that the world oil production will reach its peak 20 15 years ago, and the global oil supply will gradually enter a stage of decline.
2. The supply characteristics of the world oil market also have a great influence on the oil supply. At present, the suppliers of the world oil market mainly include the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has the vast majority of proven oil reserves in the world, and its production and price policies have great influence on the world oil supply and price. Non-OPEC countries mainly exist as price recipients and adjust production according to prices.
3. The cost of oil production will also have an impact on oil supply. As a kind of non-renewable energy, the production cost of oil will affect the intertemporal production allocation decision of producers, and then affect the market supply, indirectly causing oil price fluctuations. Li Xinjie believes that the current supply impact is mainly quantified by the US EIA crude oil inventory, API crude oil inventory and the output of some large international oil exporting countries.
Factor 3: US dollar index
Crude oil prices have been closely linked to the US dollar, and its delivery and pricing are settled in US dollars, so the US dollar index will also have an impact on crude oil prices. There is a certain inverse correlation between the change of oil price and the change of US dollar index. For example, if the dollar continues to depreciate, the real income of petroleum products priced in dollars will decline, which will lead to the need for OPEC to raise the price of crude oil as a response to maintain its relative stability. Similarly, if the dollar appreciates, oil prices will also fall.
Factor 4: Geographical conflict
Among the factors affecting oil prices, geopolitics is one of the important factors that cannot be ignored. Geopolitically, revolutions in the world's major oil-producing countries or instability at home and abroad, and wars in the Middle East, including terrorist riots around the world, will have a major impact on oil prices.