Ren Zeping said that under the over-issuance of currency, there will be three types of hard currency to fight inflation in the future: ① Houses and land in urban areas where the population is flowing in ② Precious metals in scarce supply ③ Leading companies in the big track.

His inference is actually based on the experience of the previous 10 or 20 years. I can only say that it is quite satisfactory. These three hard currencies are actually the best assets that have risen in the past ten years. In the next ten years, Will it continue? Although there is a high probability that it will continue to rise, can the essence be extracted from these three types? One thing I thought of was the shops along the streets in urban residential areas.

Key points: The core advantage of this kind of store asset is that it is more stable and less risky, and it is not necessarily the highest return. Why? Below I will slowly analyze the reasons.

Let’s first analyze the three types of hard currency mentioned by Ren Zeping one by one.

Let’s talk about the second type first: supply of scarce precious metals. If he is referring to futures speculation, then ordinary people must not be able to do it. If we are talking about buying gold products from banks, on the one hand, the handling fees charged by banks for buying gold are really outrageous. On the other hand, the growth rate of gold in the past ten years is far lower than that of real estate, and the risk of gold falling is higher than that of real estate.

Let’s talk about the third type: the leading company on the big track. This is talking about stocks. Driven by factors such as the appreciation of the RMB, I believe that there is a high probability that A shares will rise sharply. But in the end, this is still a stock, and everyone knows that the stock market is risky.

Finally, let’s talk about the first type: houses and land in urban areas where population flows. The shops I'm talking about are actually extracted from this first type. The best thing that will rise in the future may be land, but this is not something ordinary people can play.

Then there is only one type of investment that ordinary people can invest in: houses in urban areas where the population is flowing in. Why do I recommend shops instead of houses? Although the growth rate of housing in school districts in the past ten years was indeed higher than that of shops, I think shops will be more stable in the future. Because there are policy risks in housing, and no one can say whether there is a bubble in the Chinese property market. The prices of shops are basically determined by the market, and there is no bubble. Of course, shops do not refer to all shops. Let’s take a look at which shops are worth investing in.

Let’s talk about the conclusion first: it must first be shops along the street in residential areas, and then add some other factors, such as the combination of residential areas with shopping malls and hospitals. As for cities, I recommend Ningbo, Jiaxing, and Dongguan.

The key point of the above conclusion is: "along the street". Many experts do not recommend buying shops because they think shops are risky. This statement is not wrong in itself, because in recent years many shops in commercial establishments are high-risk, such as sweater market, leather market, building materials market, fruit market, etc. . The stalls in the fruit market may have the craziest prices. The clothing and leather market also grew very well for a time, but it has collapsed in the past two years, because the shops in this market are indeed valuable when the market is good, but once the market goes bad, they are worthless. As for the shops along the streets in mature communities that I am talking about, there is basically no risk of collapse. Coupled with some easy-to-understand factors that increase popularity, for example, the value added of shops in residential areas, Wanda, hospitals and other integrated areas is still very objective.

Let’s talk more specifically about how much value such a shop can add every year. I bought a shop in the community opposite Wanda Plaza in 2016. The price when I bought it was 11,000. It may have increased to 30,000 now. I can’t tell the exact price because no one has sold it now, but it was at least 25,000. There must be some. What is the annual rent? Based on the purchase price, it is 8.2%. This is the actual value-added situation of this store. Of course, the past two years are abnormal and have risen too fast.

Let’s calculate the normal minimum guaranteed increase for this kind of shop: first is the rent, which is about 5% (why is it 5%? Here is a personal method of estimating asset value: rent divided by 4%- 5%. Because the annual rent of shops and factories is basically between 4% and 5% of the total property price. The higher the total asset price, the more accurate the ratio. Why is it between 4% and 5%? I personally understand This number is actually slightly higher than the bank interest, because if the rent of an asset is lower than the interest, the asset holder will consider selling the asset and depositing it in the bank. For example: if the annual rent of a square meter is 1,000. Yuan, then the minimum value of this square meter should be: 1000/4% = 25,000 Yuan. Shops at this price are basically available. What is a better situation? There are other mature communities around the newly built shops. The rents of regional shops are actually already known. For example, the annual rent in the surrounding area is 1,000 yuan, and the selling price of shops in this newly developed community may be only 15,000 yuan. Of course, this situation is rare, but it does exist. This situation. The rent of residential buildings is far lower than 4%.) Then the value increase of the shop itself is 8%, 5% plus 8% is 13%, so the guaranteed increase for this kind of shop is 13%. If you buy it, then add the leverage of the loan and the value will be even higher. Friends who make fixed investments in index funds may know what the annual return of 13% is, which is a very high return. And 13% is just a guaranteed increase in the kind of store I'm talking about. In terms of the actual situation in recent years, it is much higher than 13%.

Then let’s talk about the cities, why Ningbo, Jiaxing and Dongguan.

There is a general consensus that the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta will become stronger and stronger in the future. Amid the drastic changes, it is easier to find relatively lower-priced shops in these three cities than in first-tier cities, and the future housing prices of cities in the middle of these two circles will be Housing prices will gradually converge with those in surrounding cities.

Finally, don’t keep cash assets in the bank. First of all, it must be clear that the cash assets you hold are only a small part of your total assets. If most of your assets are placed in the bank, then you are actually lying in a comfortable pit. This pit is very comfortable but only Deeper and deeper. Most experts would recommend fixed investment index funds, but my suggestion is fixed investment active stock funds. Let me talk about my personal views. First of all, cash assets are only a small part of your total assets, so you should definitely pursue high returns. It doesn’t mean much if you pursue a little bit of income for a small amount. Active funds may not be as stable as index funds, but active funds If you make fixed investments, the risk is not very high. If the stock market rises sharply, then the one-year increase of active funds may be equal to the increase of index funds for several years. In addition, at this point in time, I am still relatively optimistic about the fund market. On the one hand, The stock market will definitely develop in the direction of institutionalization in the future. On the other hand, this is purely my personal guess: the current savings scale of residents in our country is 100 trillion. This is actually a very scary monster. In the future, young people will definitely not be as willing to save as old people. People, the decline in savings rate is an inevitable trend, so where should this scourge be directed? I think it is most likely to be guided in the direction of funds. After all, funds are most similar to bank deposits.