According to market data, the average price of cork pulp has been falling for three weeks in a row. On June 27th, the average price was 7 100 yuan/ton, down 2% from the high point at the beginning of the month, and the average price of broad-leaved pulp fell for four consecutive weeks, down about 1.3% from the high point at the beginning of the month.

Although the current decline in pulp prices is still small, considering that the current round of pulp prices has been "entrenched" at a high point for more than a month, based on the simple view of "going up, it will fall", the market's expectations for the inflection point have warmed up.

The reporter of Cailian learned from many interviews that the mainstream view of the pulp market is "it is difficult to rise and fall". However, there are different views on the key factors supporting the price. Some respondents believe that the recovery of demand side in the second half of the year is the main support of pulp price; It is also pointed out that the cost of overseas pulp enterprises, that is, energy price, is the main supporting force.

Demand forced the price of pulp to fall.

For the reason of the decline, Chang Junting, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that the main reason is that the terminal shipment is not smooth and the pressure is transmitted upwards. She told Cailian that since June, the stock of raw paper mills has increased, which has also weakened the willingness to accept high-priced pulp. In addition, the weakening of the futures market has also had an impact.

CITIC Jiantou Futures also holds a similar view. In its latest report, it pointed out that after the pulp supply side cooled down, the contradiction between upstream and downstream of pulp was enlarged, and the pressure brought by downstream demand on pulp price was more significant than before.

However, it should be noted that although the contradiction between upstream and downstream has intensified, the current round of pulp correction is still small, and the continuous strong voice of overseas pulp enterprises also makes the expectation of "turning point" confusing.

Recently, the quotation of South American pulp enterprises in July has been released, and some of them have been raised on the basis of maintaining the previous round of prices. For example, Suzano raised the price of eucalyptus broadleaf pulp in China market in July by $20/ton, indicating the determination of pulp enterprises to protect the price. Considering the agreement of quotation in the current month, delivery in the next month, and the influence of double transportation length blocked by supply chain, it is expected that the influence of quotation from overseas pulp enterprises in July on domestic pulp prices will last longer.

There are different views on pulp price support.

Looking at the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, paper mills are greatly impacted by the rise in pulp prices, and they are also loyal fans of the view that "the fundamentals do not support the continuous high pulp prices". However, Cailian reporter noticed that although paper enterprises were anxious about the falling pulp price, their expectations had tended to be conservative after Q2 pulp price remained high.

"This year's market is really different from last year. In the first half of last year, sales were good. In the second half of last year, the price of pulp dropped sharply. In the first half of this year, it was not very profitable, and the price of pulp could not fall. " A paper company in Shandong responded. For the market outlook, he cautiously said: "There was not much money in the first half of the year. It should be better in the second half of the year, but it is difficult and complicated to estimate the sharp decline of pulp. "

Ma, an analyst at Huaan Securities, is also optimistic that the trend of pulp prices will be dominated by range fluctuations. He told the Cailian reporter that the inventory of traders is at a low level. With the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year, it will also form a certain support for the price, and it is expected that it will be difficult to drop sharply.

Wu, an analyst at Green Dahua Futures, tends to think that overseas energy prices or the leading indicator of this round of pulp price changes "still depends on energy, that is, the cost side of overseas pulp enterprises, because the supply is still tight."

It is worth noting that with the temperature drop in the second half of the year, if the energy price remains high, the heating demand of European and American residents may further turn to wood, which also constitutes a potential support for pulp prices. Wu told Cailian that the timber supply in Europe and America is already tight, accounting for about 13% of the total pulp cost. If the supply of wood is tight, it will inevitably push up the cost of pulp.

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