Cattle scattered is actually the definition of a problem. If you really know that this is a big bull market, just buy it. Cash shortage may be better, usually in recent months, so we will be able to make a profit by buying nearby transactions and throwing them away.
BR/>； Niusan can be subdivided.
(1) Bull market spread in forward foreign exchange market.
A. risk-free arbitrage.
In the case of positive risk-free arbitrage opportunities, the absolute value is greater than the cost. At this point, the near-month long contract and the far-month short contract are in the same position. With the convergence of communication, you can hedge the profit delivery of liquidation in the futures market, and there will still be no income next month. You can choose to open warehouse receipts in the near month and warehouse receipts due in the far month, and you can get risk-free and income.
Risk-free arbitrage needs to pay attention to two points. One is the cancellation factor of warehouse receipts, and then there will be special arbitrage after value-added tax, which is not the risk discussed here.
B. logical hedging arbitrage. & ltBR/ In the forward market, if the supply is insufficient and the demand is relatively strong, the contract price in recent months will increase or decrease compared with that in last month, so that the contracts in recent months will be long, and the same positions will be established in the short-term contract arbitrage operation in distant months. There are two situations:
1, the premium and premium of recent contracts and forward contracts depend on the shortage of goods, and the market demand is not limited by other factors, so the profit potential is huge. For example, in last year's cotton market, CF1105 CF11and forward contracts can be operated. As long as the cotton supply and demand situation does not improve, this situation will continue, and the early intervention of reverse arbitrage traders will lose results. In extreme cases, the contract between natural rubber and soybean 809 should have appeared, so relying solely on the historical price difference did not understand the internal logical relationship between price contract, investors and market supply and demand, and did not stop the loss in time, resulting in heavy losses.
2. The improvement of market supply and demand reflects the premium of forward contracts to recent contracts. Investors may stop losses or insist on the position of the price difference to judge the relocation. At this time, a good opportunity for reverse arbitrage can be generated.
& lt/(2) The spread of bull market turns the market around.
Reversing bull market is an arbitrage operation in practice, but in this mode of operation, it should be regarded as speculation, not arbitrage. The most classic is the soybean meal contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange. I won't go into details here.