Production cuts, losses and lack of money have put pressure on small and medium-sized pig enterprises, and the business of raising pigs has become a big stone in their hearts.
Capacity dilemma: Small and medium-sized pig enterprises drift between reducing production and gambling.
The price of live pigs has been falling. Compared with the average price of 30 yuan/kg in 2020, the current price is less than 13 yuan/kg, which makes Qian Wenjun, the undertaker of a small and medium-sized pig enterprise in Henan, make a decision to reduce production, temporarily stop buying piglets and wait for changes in the industry.
At present, the industry has overcapacity of live pigs.
Qian Wenjun told Huashang Daily that everyone said in the group every day that pigs could not be sold.
Some farmers sell pork themselves. Just one day after the live broadcast, I cried and broke my mobile phone in the live broadcast room because the price was too low to sell.
At present, according to the data of breeding sows, the production capacity of the pig industry exceeds demand.
Li Ming, a pig analyst in the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Ganglian, told Huashang Daily that the main reason for the overall loss and profit reduction of pig-raising enterprises was the change in supply and demand of pigs in 2020 and 20021year. The policy of stimulating high profits and ensuring supply laid a solid foundation for the rapid recovery of fertile sows and the supply of pigs.
By the end of March last year, the number of fertile sows monitored at fixed points increased by 45.3% year-on-year, and the average growth rate of fertile sows last year was positive. With the continuous recovery of production capacity, the supply of live pigs is gradually increasing, the contradiction between supply and demand is constantly being repaired, the price of live pigs is correspondingly falling, and the losses are slowly expanding.
At present, for small and medium-sized pig enterprises, raising pigs seems to be a gamble.
Piglets can be sold for 2300 yuan in 20 19, and three piglets can be bought for 202 1 September 100.
Qian Wenjun entered this industry when the live pig market was booming in 20 19, and after buying piglets at a high price, it expanded its pig farms.
However, what is waiting for him is the lower pig price every day.
Piglets grow to six months when they are slaughtered, and after six months, they have already discovered losses.
At this time, for us, we can only judge the trough of the industry, and we must speed up the reduction of pig production capacity during the trough.
Our investment has exceeded10 million yuan, even if the loss is deep, we can't quit this industry. We have to grit our teeth and hold this road.
The upward channel of live pig prices still needs to wait.
On March 3, 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on pig enterprises in Jiaozuo City, Henan Province.
It is considered that pork enters the off-season after the Spring Festival, and the stock of fertile sows is adjusted back to the Youth Fair, but the slaughter of pigs is still increasing inertia, and the price of pigs is in the downward channel. In addition, the price of bulk feed raw materials continued to rise, and the price of pig food entered the first-class oversold warning range. The downward pressure on prices will remain relatively high in the next two months.
Sun Jianzheng (pseudonym), a former executive of a large listed pig enterprise in Jiangxi, admitted to the reporter of Huashang Daily that at present, the price of live pigs has entered a downward cycle, and people in the industry are thinking about bargain-hunting. Some enterprises have to buy fertile sows at low prices even if they borrow money to expand their production capacity, and then make a big profit when the pig market reaches a high level. This is the gambler mentality of pig farmers to expand production.
The risk of expanding production capacity at this moment also means the opportunity to make money when the new pig cycle comes.
Capital dilemma: we didn't wait for the upward cycle, but waited for the capital chain to break.
Lack of money has become a true portrayal of the current pig industry.
After only two years, the profitability of the pig industry has changed.
According to the data of Shanghai Ganglian Agricultural Products Network, a commodity analysis organization, the average annual profit of a self-bred pig in 2020 is 2583.59 yuan. In the 25th week of June last year, raising a pig of standard weight would cost 400 yuan to 500 yuan. In 2020, the average profit of purchasing piglets will be 1478.6 yuan/head. In the middle of June last year, it cost more than RMB 1000 to raise a pig of standard weight.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in September last year, the loss of pig farms (households) nationwide reached 76.7%.
Qian Wenjun also admitted that this year, aquaculture is still at a loss.
For small and medium-sized pig enterprises, if it is the first step to bet on production capacity, cash flow will be under pressure.
Zhou Yong, the undertaker of a small and medium-sized pig enterprise in Henan Province, told Huashang Daily: The biggest pain faced by the pig industry at this moment is the financial pressure, and the pig industry is the easiest to generate cash flow.
When the market is good, we will make money this year, then the investment will expand, and then the investment will end, and the market will go down. At this time, a lot of liquidity is needed. Without funds coming in, the enterprise will go bankrupt. This kind of thing happens almost every day.
Small and medium-sized farms are usually the first people to be squeezed out of the industry.
According to China Animal Husbandry Yearbook, from 2007 to 20 19, the number of small and medium-sized farms with less than 500 heads per year dropped from 82.22 million to 22.58 million, and over 70% of the farms were shut down.
It is undeniable that small and medium-sized farmers are the backbone of the pig industry. However, due to lack of money and downward cycle pressure, many small and medium-sized farmers choose to quit or join large-scale aquaculture enterprises.
According to the statistics of the relevant undertaking units of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at present, the domestic market accounts for 52.3%, the small and medium-sized farmers account for 47.7%, and the middle-aged farms with more than 50,000 pigs only account for 0.0007%.
Take Feng Mingming, a farmer in Jiangxi, as an example. 20 19 He also bought hundreds of piglets, but as the price of pigs became lower and lower, there were fewer and fewer pigs in his pigsty.
Faced with daily expenses such as utilities, feed and labor, Feng Mingming simply sold all the pigs, entered the farm of Zhengbang Technology and started as a breeder.
With the continuous decline of pig prices, the level of pig industry will be improved.
As far as the mainstream company-farmer cooperation mode is concerned, large-scale aquaculture enterprises tend to choose farmers whose annual slaughter rate exceeds 1000.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told China Business Daily that if there are more than 1 000 pigs in an enclosure, the investment in fixed assets is about 1 000 million yuan.
The threshold of pig breeding is not only reflected in investment, the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and related costs, but also puts forward new requirements for breeding skills, governance and epidemic prevention. Only real-time transformation and upgrading can reduce production and market risks.
Environmental dilemma: environmental protection investment and epidemic prevention and control have doubled the pressure on enterprises.
Nowadays, raising pigs in the mountains has become the first choice for small and medium-sized pig enterprises.
The pig farm in Qian Wenjun is located in a valley, so Qian Wenjun should also plan environmental protection investment when choosing this place to raise pigs.
It turns out that pigs are raised in the village, and the smell of pigsty is particularly bad. The environmental protection part should be audited every once in a while, and the surrounding villagers also have opinions.
At present, raising pigs in the valley requires a particularly large capital investment in sewage and manure treatment.
Either a biogas project will be established to reuse the natural biogas after wastewater treatment. Biogas power generation can provide power for pig farms, and the discharged biogas can be stably produced, and the residue can be used as fertilizer to irrigate the land. If it is not flushed, it will be discharged after further treatment.
Or directly buy sewage treatment equipment, and the wastewater will be discharged after reaching the standard.
Can not be built in residential areas; The implementation of three wastes treatment, waste water, waste residue and waste gas should have perfect treatment facilities; The water source cannot be upwind, and the environmental protection requirements are stricter; There should be septic tank sedimentation.
Zhou Yong also admitted to the Huashang Daily reporter that only by meeting these requirements can pigs be raised.
The price of live pigs is falling, the price of feed is rising, and investment in environmental protection will account for 20% to 30% of the total investment.
This has also doubled the pressure on many small and medium-sized aquaculture enterprises.
The environmental pressure of raising pigs is particularly great.
Every day, a pig discharges more than 9 kilograms of manure, which should be completely disposed of according to national standards, so the capital will be higher. This fecal water can really fertilize the fields, but at present we still have to spend a lot of money to deal with it.
However, at present, the state and the government are actively and harmoniously docking all aspects of returning farmland, and I believe that pig manure can really be returned to the fields in the future and will not be squandered.
Sun Jian politician said.
In addition, the prevention and control of pig diseases has also become a major obstacle for small and medium-sized aquaculture enterprises.
Since Sun Jian politician entered the pig industry, he has encountered two disease problems that cannot be solved by skills.
In 2006, blue ear disease broke out in pig farms. After pigs get sick, the mortality rate of piglets is as high as 40%. Looking at a large number of infected pigs, Sun Jianzheng felt powerless.
20 18 the epidemic situation of African swine fever is even more terrible than blue ear disease. After the onset of classical swine fever, the first day was fine, and almost all of them died the next day. I basically don't know where to start.
You can't cry if you want to cry at the scene. You can only handle dead pigs in French.
Sun Jian politician said.
In fact, in 20 19, there will be very few people making money in the pig industry in 2020.
Qian Wenjun showed that about 80% of pig farmers died because of the African swine fever epidemic, and only about 20% made money. Generally speaking, most people still haven't made any money.
How to solve the problem: In addition to grit your teeth, pig farmers may have many ways to tide over the trough.
I really didn't want to quit this industry.
Zhou Yong told China Business Daily: Most people still hold the mentality that the more they lose now, the more they will earn in the future.
I hope to develop the enterprise into a large-scale and streamlined farming model.
Then narrow down the scope and do what you can.
Teeth are still the buzz of most pig farmers.
Politicians in Sun Jian also believe that enterprises can survive the downturn in five aspects.
First of all, we should start with the increase of pig farm cost.
Strengthen the reduction of inefficient sows and improve the effectiveness of sows.
In this era, the introduction cost of sows is low. If the sow in the pig farm is inefficient, the number of piglets is not high or the health is not high, it is suggested to cut off the imported sows with high yield and high health.
Second, the upgraded pigsty should be reformed to reduce the problem of low growth efficiency of pigs caused by insufficient equipment investment.
Third, make preparations for the promotion of biosafety to avoid the occurrence of epidemics.
Fourth, do a good job in market analysis and rationally use pig hedging tools. At present, pig futures are a particularly good hedging tool in the industry.
Take the prices given in the second half of last year as an example, they are all above 17 yuan/kg, which is higher than the spot price. Compared with the production cost, a pig has a profit from 200 yuan to 300 yuan. If hedging can be prepared, there is no problem for enterprises to guarantee profits.
Fifth, and most importantly, enterprises should do what they can, do not blindly expand, make a good capital plan and ensure the safety of the capital chain.
The main body of aquaculture can adjust the organizational structure within the industry.
First of all, we should stabilize production and realize the difference between market price fluctuation and production.
Whether it is a single enterprise or an organized way (such as an association breeding cooperative), through long-term production or sales contracts, or through the support of the whole industrial chain, for example, when the price of live pigs is relatively low, the breeding end can not only differentiate or reduce the loss of upstream production through slaughtering, deep processing and sales, but also allocate production according to the supply and demand situation of consumers or the whole society, thus realizing the integration of the industrial chain.
In addition, with the decline of production costs in various industries, the losses at the aquaculture end will also be reduced.
If we say that in all cycles, the industry is in low profit or insists on normal profit, the industry is relatively stable.
Zhu Zengyong said.
In addition, the relevant undertaking units of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also showed their achievements at the symposium of pig enterprises on March 3 this year, profoundly implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and the No.1 Document of the Central Committee, and took practical and effective measures to stabilize pig production.
Strengthen monitoring and early warning, continuously track and monitor the monthly information of pigs and fertile sows, enhance information announcements, and guide production scientifically.
Implement long-term maintenance support policies to stabilize industry expectations.
Implement the pig production capacity control plan, compact the territorial obligations, discuss and introduce temporary subsidies and rescue measures according to the changes, strengthen coordination with the frozen pork surplus adjustment policy, and form a joint force.
Do a good job in the prevention and control of African swine fever, strengthen the supervision of quarantine, transportation and slaughter, and consider promoting the support of grassroots animal epidemic prevention system.
Strengthen leadership, popularize applicable skills to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and help farmers reduce losses.