202 1, the main force of sugar enterprises fluctuated upward, with an annual increase of 1007 yuan/ton (+19.52%), and * * appeared in three bands.
The first wave of the market as a whole showed a volatile trend. This band is just around the Spring Festival, with pre-holiday stocking support and sugar carry-over pressure, followed by concentrated squeezing pressure and unclear license plate support.
The second wave of market showed an overall upward trend. This year's rising market mostly appears at this stage, and there is a * * * vibration with the external market at this stage. The stronger the outer disk, the stronger the inner disk until it is upside down.
The third wave of the market as a whole showed a volatile trend. At this stage, the outer disk constantly impacts the pressure of 20 cents/pound above, and then the inner disk oscillates with the interval.
Second, the spot market: the shock rose.
The annual increase reached 8 10 yuan/ton (+15.58%), slightly lower than futures+19.52%. Spot quotation is synchronized with futures, and there are three bands throughout the year.
Chapter II International Market
1. Brazil: It may become the main contradiction in the market.
According to the latest data from UNICA, the output in south-central Brazil may reach 32 million tons, down 6 1.8 million tons (-1.5.72%) year-on-year.
In Brazil, the new year and the 2022/23 crop season need to pay attention to the impact of the general election on the real; Whether the weather disaster can implement the expected production reduction and truly reduce the global trade flow; The joint influence of crude oil price and Brazilian gasoline policy on ethanol price leads to the fluctuation of sugar alcohol ratio; The situation of epidemic control in Brazil and so on. On the whole, we believe that the situation in Brazil will be the main contradiction in the international market in the new year.
Second, India: the balance between supply and demand
India's overall production and sales data has not changed much, but it is slightly loose.
We believe that India's exports will continue, but the export volume has decreased compared with the previous year (7.2 million tons).
Three. Global: Balance of trade flows
According to USDA data, the global ending inventory data has been further lowered.
On the whole, according to the reports in the past month or two, mainstream institutions basically believe that there is a gap in the global sugar market.
In 20021year, China surpassed Indonesia and became the largest buyer in the world.
According to USDA's estimation, in 2022, the import volume of the world's two major buyers may decrease by 6.5438+0.25 million tons.
According to USDA estimation, the export trade flows of the three major exporting countries are basically balanced compared with the previous year, with a slight decrease of 350,000 tons. And basically match the import trade process.
Chapter III Domestic Market
1. Output: slightly decreased.
We believe that the output data is basically the winning number in the market (although it has not been squeezed), and it is unlikely to become the main contradiction between supply and demand.
Two. Import: In principle, keep the total balance.
1, quota import and export
In terms of import in 2022, judging from the spirit conveyed by the just-concluded working meeting of Raw Sugar Processing Committee on June 5438+February 2/kloc-0, the principle of import in 2022 will maintain a total balance.
According to the import volume over the years, we found that the import volume after June 20021year increased significantly compared with the same period over the years. According to market information, this year's license