China stock market will continue the bull market pattern in 2007-
The appreciation of RMB is still a big engine of bull market. According to the judgment of Industrial Fund, the strengthening of China's economic strength, huge foreign exchange reserves and persistent trade surplus make the trend of RMB appreciation irreversible in a few years, and the appreciation of a country's currency will certainly drive the appreciation of its land assets and the prosperity of its stock market. At present, in the era of excess global capital liquidity, international investment funds and private equity funds are heating up, and the strong economic growth in China makes global funds "bullish on China". Against the background of RMB appreciation, domestic and foreign "hot money" will flood into China stock market this year. Li Xianming, an analyst at Ping An Securities, believes that it is conservatively estimated that the funds diverted from savings to the capital market will reach 400 billion yuan this year. This year's A-share market will be savings deposits, insurance funds, social security funds, QFII and so on. Competing for inflow is bound to form a bull market.
The "full circulation" of the stock market will further drive the bull market. Galaxy Securities believes that a very important change in the A-share market after the split share structure is that the reform makes the values of the two types of shareholders converge, and equity incentives make the interests of major shareholders and minority shareholders completely consistent. According to the analysis of the Franklin Fund of Guohai, the loss of profits of listed companies will be greatly improved, and there may even be a phenomenon of profit return. This "second dividend" of share reform will bring extraordinary growth to the profits of listed companies. They analyzed that the China stock market has about 30% upside this year.
The introduction of stock index futures is expected to amplify the bull market effect. The introduction of financial futures will be one of the biggest hot spots in the capital market in 2007. This year, stock index futures will take the lead as a "deep-water bomb" of financial futures. According to central china securities's investment strategy report, stock index futures, known as "the jewel in the crown of futures", will greatly enhance the investment value of large-cap index stocks and probably amplify the bull market effect.
The tax burden of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises may merge, which will enhance the profit expectation of A-share companies and benefit the A-share market greatly. Huaxia Fund predicts that the tax reform will increase the net profit of all companies in the A-share market by 6%-8%.
The enhancement of China's overall economic strength will further enhance the core competitiveness of domestic enterprises, which will be the basis for the strength of China stock market. Shen Yin Wanguo believes that with the continuous return of overseas blue chips and the listing of domestic blue chips, China A-share market will enter an investment era of new blue chips or new institutions.
Huge source of funds: An old man in his seventies in Nanjing borrowed 60,000 yuan with his house as collateral to raise money for stock trading. It is not uncommon to use the credit leverage of banks to enter the Shenzhen stock market. In addition to re-mortgaging houses that have paid off bank loans in exchange for funds to enter the stock market, Shenzhen people who are at the forefront of the market economy have also invented another way-adding mortgages. Due to the general sharp appreciation of the real estate market, some citizens re-evaluate the houses being mortgaged and borrow more money to enter the stock market.
Retail investors are the masters of the current stock market. According to the statistics of Stock Market Capital Monthly, only one third of the nearly 250 billion inflow funds in April were institutional funds, and the remaining 654.38+06 billion were contributed by individual funds, and the ratio of individual funds to institutional funds has reached 2: 654.38+0.
In last year's 1 1 and 65438+February, more than 90% of the funds in Shenzhen and Shanghai also came from institutions. In just a few months, the mainstream of new funds in the A-share market has basically been replaced by individuals. A large number of individual investors keep entering the market with the spirit of "ants gnawing at bones", which is the biggest feature of the current market.
This has also become the most vivid and comprehensive capital market universal education. After Xia Yun entered the market at the beginning of the year, he tried to find out what the K-line chart is by self-study, and to identify the trading volume of the business to judge whether there is a banker hiding, and so on. In this process of trying to understand the operation law of the stock market, she also readily accepted the view that stock trading is pyramid schemes. Stir-fry in a circle and pass it on one by one. "Let's see who gets the stick in the end."
A steady stream of funds has entered the market, supporting the baton of this "MLM game" to pass on. As of May, the total number of stock trading accounts in China has reached 95 million, up 30% from a year ago. According to the figures of China Securities Clearing and Registration Co., Ltd., the number of newly opened accounts in the stock market reached 552,559 last Wednesday alone.
This does not include the number of indirect shareholders. At present, stock assets account for about 39% of the 450 billion total assets of the social security fund.
Every shareholder has too many reasonable reasons to take a slice of the bubble. Bank deposits are low-interest, the price of real estate outside Beijing's Fourth Ring Road is already a prefix, and there are a lot of life events with uncertain numbers such as studying, seeing a doctor and raising children. "We strive to raise the prices of all assets, and we also want to share the fruits of reform and opening up."
It is this kind of investor who obviously wants to make quick money that is even more worrying. "Most investors are retail investors, and more and more ordinary people are entering the stock market for the first time. In view of China's huge household savings and low deposit interest rate, we have reason to believe that unless measures are taken to improve the flexibility of the market, the market will be further excessively lifted. " Fang Xinghai, director of the Shanghai Financial Office, said.