Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have lost a lot, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil.
Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly taken the form of mixed crisis.
The subprime mortgage crisis is a financial crisis in general, but the causes are different from the past.
Sub-prime loan: a loan with high interest and high risk issued by a bank to users of sub-prime mortgage with bad credit, which is called sub-prime mortgage.
Sub-prime mortgage crisis: The rising interest rate leads to an increase in repayment pressure. Many users with bad credit feel that the repayment pressure is high and there is the possibility of default, which has an impact on the recovery of bank loans.
In August 2007, a storm triggered by the bankruptcy of subprime lending institutions, the forced closure of investment funds and the violent fluctuation of the stock market swept through the major global financial markets such as the United States, the European Union and Japan.
Continuous interest rate hikes set off a "time bomb"
The direct cause of the US subprime mortgage market storm is the rising interest rate in the United States and the continuous cooling of the housing market. Subprime mortgage refers to loans provided by some lending institutions to borrowers with poor credit and low income. A few years ago, when the housing market in the United States was highly prosperous, the subprime mortgage market developed rapidly, and even some borrowers who were usually considered unable to repay were given housing loans, which laid a hidden danger for the subsequent subprime mortgage market crisis.
In the two years up to June 2006, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 65,438+07 times and raised the federal funds rate from 65,438+0% to 5.25%. The sharp rise in interest rates has increased the repayment burden of buyers. In addition, since the second quarter of last year, the US housing market has begun to cool down significantly. With the decline of house prices, it is difficult for buyers to sell their houses or obtain financing through mortgage loans. Affected by this, many borrowers in the subprime mortgage market can't repay their loans on time, and the crisis in the subprime mortgage market has begun to appear and become increasingly fierce.
Some European and American investment funds have been hit hard.
With the emergence of the subprime mortgage market crisis in the United States, some lending institutions engaged in subprime mortgage business bear the brunt of the impact. Since the beginning of this year, many subprime mortgage companies have suffered serious losses and even been forced to file for bankruptcy protection, including New Century Financial Company, the second largest subprime mortgage institution in the United States.
At the same time, because lenders usually package subprime mortgage contracts into financial investment products and sell them to investment funds, with the intensification of the crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the United States, some American and European investment funds that buy such investment products have also been hit hard.
Take Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, for example. Due to the crisis in the subprime mortgage market, two of its funds closed down recently, resulting in the total loss of investors exceeding $654.38+05 billion. In addition, BNP Paribas announced on the 9th that it would suspend the trading of its three funds involved in the US mortgage business. The market value of these three funds has shrunk from 2.075 billion euros on July 27th to 654.38+59.3 million euros on August 7th.
May affect global economic growth.
What's more, with the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States to other financial fields, banks generally choose to raise loan interest rates and reduce the number of loans, leading to the looming liquidity crisis in major financial markets around the world. On the 9th, after BNP Paribas announced that it would suspend the trading of its three funds, investors' worries about the credit market intensified, which led to a sharp drop in European and American stock markets. Among them, the average price index of Dow Jones 30 industrial stocks in new york stock market fell by 387. 18 points to 13270.68 points, a decrease of 2.83%.
Market analysts pointed out that if the crisis in the US subprime mortgage market further escalates and expands to more financial fields, it will lead to more violent turmoil in the global financial market. In addition, if the crisis affects personal consumption expenditure, the main driving force of American economic growth, it will have an adverse impact on American and even global economic growth.
The central banks of Europe, America and Japan responded urgently.
Facing the storm of American subprime mortgage market, the central banks of the United States, the euro zone and Japan are all taking active actions, hoping to restore investor confidence and maintain the stability of financial markets by providing huge funds to the money market. On August 9, the European Central Bank announced that it would provide 94.8 billion euros of funds to relevant banks. On August 10, the European Central Bank once again announced that it would inject 6 10 billion euros into the banking system of the euro zone to alleviate the liquidity shortage caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and stabilize the credit market. The Federal Reserve Bank of new york, a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve, injected $24 billion into the banking system on the 9th. 10 In August, the Bank of Japan announced that it would inject 1 trillion yen into the Japanese money market.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is like a storm, which not only makes the Dow continue to dive, but also the three major European stock market indexes, Nikkei index and Hang Seng index have plummeted.
In order to prevent the crisis from spreading further, statistics show that in just 48 hours, central banks around the world have injected more than 320 billion US dollars for emergency "fire fighting". The cold current of the American financial storm swept the world. According to a survey conducted by Knight Frank, one of the world's largest real estate consulting agencies, global house prices have declined for the first time since the survey was established.
According to the British "Guardian"165438+1October 24th, the global house price index report released by Knight Frank International shows that the global average house price reversed for the first time in the third quarter of this year, down 0.3% compared with the second quarter. The worst performing countries include Britain (-4.6%), Latvia (-6.2%) and Norway (-4.5%).
Nicholas, head of global investigation department of Knight Frank International, said: "It is now obvious that there is no corner in the world that is not affected by the credit crunch, because more and more places are beginning to see falling house prices." . Barnes said, "We predict that this trend will continue, and most of the surveyed areas will have zero or negative growth this year."
On a year-on-year basis, the global average house price still showed an upward trend in the past year, rising by 3.8% in the third quarter of this year, but the increase was lower than that in the second quarter. Take several countries with strong housing price growth as examples. Slovakia's growth rate is 3 1.2%, Russia's 26.9% and Bulgaria's 26.8%. However, compared with the year-on-year growth in the second quarter of this year, these three countries have decreased by 4.9%, 4.2% and 3% respectively, indicating that house prices in these countries will also face an inflection point.
As for the property market in many countries in Europe and America, it can only be described as heavy losses, and the year-on-year decline in the third quarter was quite fierce. In the third quarter, the United States decreased by 16.3%, Estonia decreased by 16%, Latvia decreased by 24. 1%, and Britain decreased by 10.6%. In the survey of the same period last year, British house prices rose by 9.5% year-on-year.
Dubai is the first country to enter the survey this year. With the global housing market depressed and the international oil price falling, the house price of this oil-producing country rose by 76. 1% in the third quarter.
As we all know, the recent financial crisis has seriously affected the healthy development of the global economy. From Wall Street to the whole world, from the financial sector to the real economy, governments all over the world are facing a serious economic crisis. So, what can we see from this crisis? How have China's economy and China's enterprises been affected? For us, are China enterprises great opportunities or challenges?
On June 4th, 10, a large number of websites specially planned the first issue of "Looking at the World"-"The Impact of the American Financial Crisis on China's Economy" to discuss the above issues with industry experts.
First of all, Yucheng Hou, deputy director of university of international business and economics Financial Technology Research Center, said that the financial turmoil in the United States eventually turned into a crisis, which was caused by the price bubble, which was mainly reflected in the real estate market. The United States shifted the problem to financial derivatives and confused the concept. The fundamental problem is the excessive expansion of the real estate bubble, which eventually leads to uncontrollable situation.
In recent years, the progress of science and technology and the improvement of productivity in the United States have led to rapid economic development, but at a certain stage, its economic development is supported by rising prices. It is precisely because of this subtle difference that once there is a problem in a certain field, the whole price system will collapse.
Dr Shi Huihong, a researcher at capital university of economics and business Financial Policy Research Center, believes that the root of the financial crisis lies in the American financial mechanism, that is, credit derivatives. The principal and interest of ordinary bonds can be expected. After the derivative, the principal has changed and the interest rate has also changed. If the interest rate can be linked to the exchange rate, then the interest rate can be linked to many factors, which will further expand the risk. Especially in futures, the interest rate is high, and the amount of losses becomes astronomical, which makes the whole economy divided into two poles, one is profiteering, the other is huge loss, and the economic system cannot be balanced.
Faced with this situation, governments all over the world are trying their best to save the financial crisis, but what is the effect? Yucheng Hou said that all the capital injections in Europe and America, including the establishment of various funds, are mainly aimed at stabilizing the market. The overall purpose is to unite central banks to give confidence to the market, stabilize the financial system, and let the real economy operate normally.
Talking about the impact of the current financial crisis on China's economy, Yucheng Hou believes that its main negative impact lies in China's foreign trade export and financial sector, but from another perspective, this crisis may be a huge opportunity-forcing China's export structure to upgrade, which requires the macro-decision-making level to provide a buffer opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises and large exporters in China.
Lian Jie, investment manager of investment management headquarters of china galaxy Investment Management Co., Ltd., said that in the current environment of insufficient independent motivation in China, the living environment is getting worse and worse, and stronger enterprises can only be born in the process of industrial upgrading and industrial combination. On the other hand, industries supported by rigid domestic demand are very worthy of attention. Our current domestic demand growth is not fast, but this growth is basically rigid and will not suddenly become negative growth, such as agriculture and fast-moving consumer goods, which have good investment opportunities.
Yucheng Hou believes that under the current economic situation, we can pay more attention to domestic demand on the basis of stabilizing or minimizing the impact of exports. From the recent Party Congress, we can find that starting domestic demand or creating domestic demand may become the main economic policy direction of China in the next stage. For agriculture and even the whole field related to agriculture, it may be a point for China to strengthen the development of domestic demand in the future. In the next step, China is likely to give appropriate support and promotion to the science and technology industry. On the one hand, it will develop the foundation of science and technology, on the other hand, it will try to create new consumption hotspots from this field.
What kind of industry can develop well in this crisis, and how can enterprises get away with it in this crisis? Experts put forward suggestions for SMEs:
Yucheng Hou: Small and medium-sized enterprises should make great changes and improvements in their future development ideas. This year and even in the future, relying on the simple intensive and low-cost production methods in the past will gradually encounter development bottlenecks, which requires two preparations for the future development of small and medium-sized enterprises in China. On the one hand, the technology of small and medium-sized enterprises needs to be improved and prepared first. Second, the small and medium-sized enterprises in China, especially the export-oriented ones, need to be equipped with some talents who are familiar with the economic and financial fields in the future.
Lian Jie: When it comes to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, there is one point to be raised, and that is the financial environment in China. In the case that the overall financial environment in China lags behind the development of the real economy, there are opportunities in the financial industry. In the future, there will be many kinds of small enterprises in the financial industry, which may live well. When choosing an enterprise, an investment company will consider several factors in actual operation. The first is the industry space. Even if it ranks first, there is only one million room for growth in the industry, which is not considered; The second is industry barrier, which is a factor restricting competition. It is very valuable to design barriers so that the latter can't catch up or even enter this field easily.
For the transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, Shi Huihong believes that on the one hand, we can rely on our own strength, on the other hand, we also need to rely on external forces, and some governments should take responsibility for external forces. Whether abroad or at home, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises often needs corresponding government policies, otherwise they will be very passive in the competition with large enterprises. Yucheng Hou believes that small and medium-sized enterprises must proceed from their own development, and cannot pin their development hopes entirely on the country. Whether it is domestic or international, it is normal for enterprises to survive the fittest.
Finally, when talking about the breakthrough of China enterprises in this financial crisis, three experts said: Under the current situation, SMEs should actively expand other markets outside the United States, including African markets, European markets and even Asian markets. Through crisis training, improve the competitiveness with international enterprises and the ability to explore the international market, and constantly improve their own strength. The pace of progress can't stop, and the opportunity will eventually come.
The financial turmoil in the United States has spread all over the world, and its influence is getting deeper and wider. The financial crisis has inevitably affected and impacted China's economy. However, compared with developed countries in Europe and America and other developing countries, the impact on China is relatively small, mainly manifested in negative export growth, slowing investment growth and depreciation or loss of foreign exchange assets. As China's economy is highly dependent on foreign trade, there is no doubt that the biggest impact lies in foreign trade exports.
Affected by the American financial turmoil, China's textile, real estate, toys, steel and other industries entered the cold winter early. At the same time, due to the shrinking of projects under construction in the United States, export enterprises of furniture, bathroom, hardware, electronics and other products are also struggling. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. The reduction of foreign trade orders has directly affected the downstream manufacturing industry. At present, many foreign trade factories in Quanzhou, Putian, Xiamen and Fuzhou have laid off employees, stopped working or even closed down. Thanks to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, one of the four largest investment banks in the United States, Sichuan export enterprises are also facing the pressure of export diversion. He Ping, general manager of Sichuan Zhongji Import and Export Co., Ltd. told reporters that 80%-90% of the company's American orders have been taken back, with a total count of 10 million yuan. According to the relevant person in charge of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Commerce, some foreign trade enterprises in Sichuan Province have been unable to get orders for next year, and it will be more difficult for enterprises facing the triple pressure of capital, production factors and structural adjustment to develop.
At present, Hejun has closed two production plants in Guangdong, involving more than 6,000 employees. Professor Chao Gangling, who is familiar with Hejun Group, said that this is the enterprise he knew was most affected by the American financial turmoil in China. Because Hejun's business relies heavily on the export of the American market, the poor external economic environment in the first half of this year caused it to lose HK$ 200 million in the first half of this year.
The spread of the American financial crisis has two main impacts on China's textile industry: one is that the proportion of the United States in the global market has shrunk, and the other is that the global market has shrunk. Ma Wenfeng, an analyst at Oriental Iger, said.
The US financial crisis and global economic turmoil are still going on, and the domestic automobile market is affected. In recent years, the export business of domestic car dealers bears the brunt and suffers a fatal blow.
In addition, domestic auto parts manufacturers are facing a more severe impact. Due to the weak competitiveness of scale and technology, some enterprises even face bankruptcy. The total demand of export supporting market and post-export market and international supporting market has dropped obviously, and it may take 1 to 2 years to return to the level at the beginning of the year. Therefore, suppliers who have already participated in international matching may face a reduction in the number of planned orders when implementing international matching.
Steel industry: the sales volume of steel dropped sharply, and the steel industry collectively reduced production.