Recent fluctuations in the agricultural sector continue.

There were some opinions in the original market that with the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine being gradually "digested" by the market, the fluctuation of global grain and food prices will gradually shrink and fall back, but in fact, with the superposition of various factors and constantly triggering new effects, the global grain and related agricultural products market continues to fluctuate.

1. The vegetable oil market is mixed.

After Indonesia suddenly announced the suspension of palm oil export, the vegetable oil market was once in chaos, especially soybean oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil. The release of this news once again disrupted the global vegetable oil market, and their prices also rose again.

But not long ago, Indonesia announced the lifting of the export ban under multiple pressures, or changed to restrict domestic supply. Although this news was interpreted by the market as changing "export ban" to "export restriction", there are still risks in market supply. On the other hand, Malaysia, as the second largest palm oil producer in the world, has seized the opportunity to increase its exports to gain more market share.

On the one hand, although Indonesia's export ban has been relaxed, the vegetable oil market is still facing great changes due to its quantitative restrictions and the variability of future policies.

On the other hand, there is no expectation of continuous accumulation of palm oil in Malaysia, and it is expected that oil prices will still fluctuate widely.

2. Wheat is in turmoil.

The situation of wheat is more complicated than vegetable oil.

On the one hand, under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine's grain production reduction is basically a foregone conclusion, and Ukraine, as an important exporter of wheat, will inevitably be affected.

On the other hand, India's wheat export policy, which was also tightened due to the extreme heat wave, was slightly relaxed, but the market expectation was still tight, which also led to the global wheat price falling first and then rising.

Wheat growth in the United States and the European Union is also not optimistic.

American wheat faces "two days of drought and flood". Winter wheat is weak due to drought, and spring wheat is seriously slow due to wet and waterlogging. However, France, the most important wheat producer in the European Union, also keeps reporting the expected reduction of production due to the influence of extreme weather.

Under these unfavorable news, Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, received good news.

Thanks to the good weather, Russia's grain output is expected to reach a record this year, of which the wheat output will reach a historical record of 87 million tons, and the export volume is expected to increase to 4 1 10,000 tons.

But this does not mean that the supply pressure in the wheat market has been alleviated, because on the one hand, affected by relevant sanctions, how to transport it will be a problem; On the other hand, the current soaring global oil prices and rising transportation costs will further push up the pressure on food procurement.

In addition, wheat is the most demanded food in the world. Under the turbulent pattern, countries have increased their grain reserves, so it is more likely that the global wheat price will rise and fall in the future.

3. Sugar is tight.

When people are collecting the trend of the wheat market, news keeps coming from the sugar market.

First of all, Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of sugar, cancelled its sugar orders because more sugar was used for biofuels to get higher returns.

This means that the export volume of sugar will face a decline.

Then, the news that India restricted the export of sugar also made the market nervous for a time.

Not long ago, Cuba also said that this year's sugar industry harvest may only be half as expected, and its sugar production may usher in the worst year since 1908.

With the arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere, the consumption of sugar will increase, which also aggravates the turmoil in the sugar market.

Although the direct impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the sugar market is less than expected, the subsequent market prices will still fluctuate at a high level under the influence of the superposition effect caused by multiple influences.

4. Will the price of rice rise?

Finally, it is worth collecting. With global inflation high and food prices rising frequently, news of price increases has also been reported in several major rice producing countries recently.

First of all, the Thai government indicated that it would discuss with Vietnam to jointly raise the price of rice in order to improve the market bargaining power of the two countries.

Secondly, India, as the largest rice exporter in the world, has also heard the news that it will collect rice. If there are signs of an increase, in order to protect its own supply, it will also take corresponding restrictions on rice.

India, Vietnam and Thailand are three important rice exporters in the world. If the three major exporting countries raise prices or restrict purchases one after another, it is bound to push up the global rice price.

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To sum up, it can be seen that although the current price increase of grain and related agricultural products is not unprecedented, the influencing factors behind it are very complicated and intertwined, which makes the price increase not very fierce on the surface, but the pressure to fall back is great.

For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.