Oil is a basic means of production, and its price continues to rise sharply, which will have an impact on the growth rate and quality of the entire national economy as well as the production and operations of other petroleum-related industries. From the current point of view, the sharp rise in oil prices since the second half of last year has had a huge impact on our country's economic life. Over time, this impact will continue to expand.

1. Impact on the macro economy As the world’s third largest oil consumer, the impact of fluctuations in international oil prices on our country’s economy cannot be underestimated. At present, our country imports about 1.5 million barrels of crude oil every day. In the past, the normal price of a barrel of crude oil was 22 to 25 US dollars. Now we have to pay an average of 13 US dollars more per barrel. The funds required for China's daily oil imports will cost about 20 million US dollars more than the budget. , an extra US$7.3 billion, or more than 60 billion yuan, will be spent a year. With other factors remaining unchanged, if this 60 billion yuan as investment demand can drive investment growth by 1.4 percentage points, and as government consumption can drive social consumer goods retail sales growth by 1.5 percentage points, its direct impact on economic growth The driving effect is 0.6 percentage points. If its indirect effect is added, the actual driving effect on GDP growth will be expanded. Therefore, if other factors are not taken into account, a substantial increase in oil prices will affect the growth rate of my country's GDP.

2. Impact on the overall price level. As a high-quality energy source, oil is the food produced by enterprises. The continuous and sharp increase in oil prices will directly affect the increase in enterprise production costs, thereby promoting the increase in enterprise production prices. . The obvious rise in the corporate commodity price index in the first two months of this year is a typical illustration: in the first two months, the cumulative price of oil increased by 11.2% compared with the end of the previous year and by 44.4% compared with the same period last year. The cumulative price of refined oil increased by 11.2% compared with the end of the previous year. It increased by 6.6% and 28.7% compared with the same period last year. Therefore, the price of corporate commodities in the first two months increased by 1.2% compared with the end of the previous year and increased by 0.8% compared with the same period last year. The rise in production costs can be digested by companies with huge profits. However, when the profit margins of traditional companies and state-owned enterprises in my country are already very low, the only way for most companies in my country to deal with the rise in oil prices is to sell their products. Also follow the price increase. As many industries begin to raise the prices of their own products, consumer spending on these products will also increase accordingly, so the scope of the impact of rising oil prices will further expand, thereby affecting the rise in the price level of the entire society. In the first two months of this year, my country's household consumption index increased by 0.3% cumulatively compared with the same period last year, and by 0.6% compared with the end of the previous year. The overall price level increased for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2001. The main reason for this is that This is the result of the sharp rise in oil prices.

3. Impact on the transportation industry Affected by the rise in oil prices in the international market, the price of domestic refined oil products has increased, which has had a greater adverse impact on the transportation industry, among which the air transportation industry has the greatest impact. Significantly. Since the beginning of the year, due to the price increase of refined oil, domestic jet fuel has risen from 2,640 yuan/ton to 3,020 yuan/ton. According to relevant calculations, the proportion of jet fuel in the entire airline operating costs will increase from 20% to 30%, becoming the second largest The second largest cost of aviation materials. After entering March, affected by the sharp rise in gasoline prices, civil aviation ticket prices are facing pressure to increase again in the near future. The profit expectations of airlines largely depend on future jet fuel prices. If jet fuel prices continue to rise, the possibility of eventual losses increases. According to historical data, when oil prices rose in 2000, Air China's jet fuel costs increased by about 400 million yuan. China Eastern Airlines spent an additional 300 million yuan due to the increase in jet fuel prices, while China Southern Airlines spent an additional 300 million yuan. This resulted in an additional cost of RMB 600 million. If aviation fuel prices remain high this year, my country's air transport industry will face another industry-wide loss test. The reason why fuel price increases have the most significant impact on my country's air transportation industry is because my country's lack of oil futures trading makes the civil aviation industry lose the ability to fight back in the face of foreign competition. The uncontrollable factors of aviation fuel costs have affected the performance of domestic aviation companies. competitiveness.

4. Impact on the textile industry The rise in crude oil prices has pushed up the prices of petrochemical products across the board, and the chemical fiber industry, which is the end of the petrochemical industry chain, has been deeply affected. PX, the main raw material for chemical fiber products. The market price of PTA and other products has been rising. For example, the price of polyester chips has increased from 7,000 yuan/ton at the end of December last year to the current 9,800 yuan/ton, which has led to a passive increase in the price of chemical fiber products. Currently, the prices of polyester and acrylic fibers are rising. trend. With the increase in chemical fiber prices, domestic cotton prices have skyrocketed. According to February corporate commodity price index statistics released by the People's Bank of China, cotton prices in February increased by 3.3% month-on-month on the basis of a 2.5% increase in January, and a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. Among them, the price of cotton textiles increased by 1.1% month-on-month and 4.2% year-on-year. As the prices of textile raw materials rise, the prices of finished products in the textile industry follow suit. The impact of rising oil prices on the textile industry is mainly reflected in the rising prices of chemical fibers and chemical fiber fabrics, as well as the resulting rise in cotton prices. Rising raw material prices are a common problem faced by the global textile industry.

A large part of the reason for the increase in domestic textile raw material prices is that some raw material suppliers take advantage of market uncertainty to drive up the prices of such products. As the country intensifies its crackdown on such illegal activities, this situation will be alleviated to a certain extent.

5. Impact on the rubber industry Synthetic rubber is a petrochemical product, and changes in oil prices will also seriously affect the price of synthetic rubber. Since the end of last year, due to the dual impact of the sharp rise in natural rubber prices and oil prices, the price of synthetic rubber has risen sharply: the prices of styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber in the southern market are basically 108,0011,000 yuan/ton. Since January 1 this year, Yanhua butadiene rubber has undergone eight price adjustments, gradually adjusting from 8,500 yuan/ton to the current 10,000 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of styrene-butadiene rubber is around 10,600-10,900 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of styrene-butadiene rubber is around 11,100 yuan/ton. The current price of synthetic rubber is the second high in the past 10 years. The sharp rise in rubber prices has had a huge impact on the normal production and operation of rubber companies, making downstream companies overwhelmed. Taking tires as an example, the average monthly profit of the association's member companies in the first half of 2002 was 100 million yuan, but the realized profits in November had dropped to 30 million yuan. The latex and rubber shoe industries are even more difficult, and individual companies dare not produce at full capacity. Even discontinued or semi-discontinued production. Judging from the statistical results of 2002, although the economic situation of the rubber industry has greatly increased compared with the same period last year, starting from November after the rubber price increase, the economic situation of the entire industry began to deteriorate, and the profit of the entire industry in November only increased by 2. 27%, the growth rate of major sub-sectors turned negative. The excessive rise in rubber prices has had a significant impact on the development of the rubber industry. If the price of rubber raw materials cannot be reasonably and effectively controlled, the rubber industry this year is likely to repeat the industry-wide losses two years ago.

6. Impact on the plastics industry Since the United States threatened to attack Iraq in November last year, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, causing a serious impact on the plastics industry closely related to it. Since late November last year, the price of plastic raw materials has been rising, with the average price of the five major categories of raw materials rising by 1,000-2,000 yuan/ton. For example, the price of ABS has risen from 8,000 yuan/ton in November last year to the current 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 3,000 yuan. PP has also increased by more than 1,000 yuan per ton. Never before has plastic raw materials experienced such a large increase and lasted for such a long time.

At present, in the domestic market, the price of plastics in Beijing has reached 6,800 yuan to 6,900 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory transaction price is between 6,700 yuan and 6,800 yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan higher than before the Spring Festival. In Tianjin, plastic manufacturers have tight supply, and the shipping price of small batches has risen to 7,000 yuan/ton. Due to the strong price-waiting atmosphere in the market, the latest transaction volume is not large, and most people believe that plastic prices will continue to rise along with the rise in international oil prices. Continuing high prices have made it unaffordable for many downstream plastics manufacturers, resulting in a demand gap. In Yuyao, Zhejiang, in addition to external processing companies that can barely survive by compressing profit margins due to their high added value of products, most small and medium-sized enterprises that sell domestically are labor-intensive enterprises with low added value of products. In the face of soaring costs, Corporate profits are difficult to guarantee, production and operations are in trouble, and many companies are currently suspending production or suspending production. Due to the wait and see of the high oil price market, about 1/3 of the plastic products companies in Taizhou, the kingdom of plastic products, have stopped production. Zhejiang is the largest plastics producer in the country. It has two plastic bases, Yuyao China Plastics City and Taizhou Plastic Products Kingdom. Among them, Yuyao China Plastics City has more than 1,000 companies. Last year, the transaction volume reached 11.7 billion yuan and the consumption of plastic raw materials reached 1.4 million tons. Taizhou Plastic Products Kingdom has more than 10,000 plastic industry enterprises, with an annual production of more than 800,000 tons of plastic products and accessories. Last year, sales revenue reached more than 18 billion yuan, and plastic raw material consumption was close to 2 million tons. The current sharp increase in plastic prices has had a huge impact on the plastics industry in Zhejiang Province.

7. Impact on the automobile industry The rise in oil prices will also have a certain impact on automobile sales. As a pure oil importer, China, the rise in oil prices affects the rise in refined oil prices, which in turn affects the market sales of automobiles, a major fuel consumer. At present, the sales of some large-displacement cars have been affected by their high fuel consumption.

Since the price of domestic refined oil rose on October 1 last year, fuel consumption has become a concern for the transportation industry and the majority of car owners. The rise in oil prices has made consumers pay more attention to it when buying cars than they do today. The fuel consumption performance of the vehicle model. Car dealers generally report that since the price of oil has been rising since the second half of last year, the first question asked by consumers who come to buy a car is: How much is the fuel consumption? When many consumers are undecided between two cars of the same type, they will also use fuel consumption as a bargaining chip for their final decision. Especially the working class, whose income is mainly a fixed salary. When buying a car, they pay more attention to price and fuel consumption, and prefer fuel-efficient economy cars. With the recent emergence of a large number of new cars and the continuous decline in car prices, working class people The number of people buying cars will definitely increase significantly and become the mainstream of private car buying. However, the rise in oil prices has affected the car buying tendency of a considerable number of consumers.

According to dealers such as Alto, Xiali, Palio, and Sail, the sales momentum of these cars has been good since the increase in oil prices because of their low price, light body, and low fuel consumption. According to dealers of off-road vehicles, many consumers like off-road vehicles from the bottom of their hearts, but the excessive fuel consumption of off-road vehicles discourages most off-road vehicle enthusiasts.

Generally speaking, the impact of rising crude oil prices on the national economy and most related industries is negative, but there are also a few industries that will benefit from rising crude oil prices. For example, if the price of crude oil rises, domestic crude oil mining and refining companies will become the biggest beneficiaries of the rise in oil prices, and their profits will rise rapidly in the short term; substitute products for oil, such as coal mining and natural gas mining, will also suffer due to the rise in oil prices. Benefiting from this, the profits of its production and marketing companies will also increase significantly. However, most industries, especially the downstream industries of petrochemicals and oil-consuming related industries, cannot avoid price risks, and their production and development will be negatively affected to varying degrees. The adverse impact of rising crude oil prices on the national economy is not yet obvious, but the adverse impact of sustained and long-term increases in crude oil prices on the operation of the national economy will gradually appear later this year, and sufficient attention should be paid to this.