Saudi Arabia and Britain formally signed FCAS VI.
Statement of intention to cooperate
According to CCTV News and China Airlines, British Defense Secretary Wallace visited Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, and met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman. After the meeting, the two countries formally signed a statement of intention for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to participate in the future air combat system (FCAS). ?
According to the Saudi Ministry of Defence, Saudi Arabia is "trying to join the FCAS project". However, the British side put forward different voices: pointing out that there is no reason to believe that "Saudi Arabia has joined the FCAS plan." This statement is only for the possible cooperation between the two sides in the future and opens the way for feasibility study.
As far as we are concerned, Saudi Arabia received the visiting British Defence Minister and signed a statement of intention to join the British sixth-generation fighter R&D program, which triggered a lot of discussion among military fans: then we have been circulating the rumor that CACC is discussing with Saudi Arabia and inviting Saudi Arabia to join the FC-3 1 fighter R&D project. After such a long time, it is still not enough.
Do we have any questions about the future fighters of the Saudi Air Force?
In fact, from Ivan's point of view, from the beginning, I heard that Saudi Arabia and Britain signed such a statement of intention to join the FCAS project, and after signing it, they actually made their own statements, so I know this is not very reliable. To put it bluntly, maybe this time, Saudi Arabia may be severely cleaned up by the British.
R&D Mode of the Sixth Generation Machine in Europe
Why do you say that? Let's take a look at the current research and development pattern of the sixth generation fighter in Europe.
After the fifth generation fighters were all bound by the JSF plan of the United States, and an F-35 fighter with extremely compromised design was produced, the sixth generation fighter project in Europe broke away from the R&D control of the United States, showing a multi-pronged R&D pattern in Lian Heng.
This "unity" is the cooperative intention of "Future Air Combat System" (FCAS) reached by France, Germany and Spain in 20 18. This intention officially landed in May, 20021year, and the three countries reached an agreement on the investment ratio, R&D projects undertaken by them, companies involved in subcontracting, intellectual property rights and product applications. ?
According to the disclosure, the FCAS project is led by Dassault, and subcontracted by Airbus, Safran, MTU, Terez and MBDA. The whole project is divided into several sub-projects, including the next generation fighter (NGF), the next generation aero engine (NEFE), the next generation weapon system (NGWS), the next generation unmanned aerial vehicle (Male) and the next generation cruise missile.
The "first vertical" is the cooperation agreement reached by Britain, Japan and Italy on February 9, 65438. The three countries will jointly develop the sixth generation fighter. The code name of this sixth generation fighter is the Global Combat Air Plan (GCAP) project. The project will completely integrate the original "Storm" project in Britain and the F-X project in Japan, and get technical support from the Italian aviation industry to ensure the intergenerational advantage over the existing tactical aircraft.
What project did Saudi Arabia sign?
Having said that, many people may have found that the agreement signed by Saudi Arabia and Britain does not mean that it has joined the so-called FCAS "Future Air Combat System" project.
Then the FCAS project we mentioned above is actually a sixth-generation aircraft project jointly developed by France, Germany and Spain. What does this have to do with Britain? Can Saudi Arabia sign a contract with Britain to join projects in France, Germany and Spain?
Ivan looked it up, and that's about it. In fact, before Britain, Italy and Japan formulated the GCAP plan. In 20 18, Britain once pulled Sweden and Italy to do the pre-research plan of the sixth generation fighter. The code name of the plan is "Future Air Combat System Technology", and the abbreviation is FCAS-TI. At that time, the project was led by BAE-System, head of the British Ministry of Defence, and subcontracted to Rolls-Royce, MBDA, Saab in Sweden and Leonardo in Italy.
By July of 20021year, the project had entered the conceptual development stage, and the famous and earth-shattering "Tempest" model had been drawn for a long time. But I don't know why, in 2022, the FCAS-FI plan changed, and the Swedish Saab Group was kicked out and re-introduced Japanese technical resources, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which is responsible for overall design, and Shidao, which is responsible for engine development.
Therefore, this is the origin of the GCAP plan at the end of 2022. In other words, by the end of 2022, the original FCAS-TI projects in Britain, Sweden and Italy will no longer exist. All the pre-research results and technical data, and all the R&D forces are re-focused on the GCAP project. The British side emphasized this point again in its statement at the end of last year. In the future, there will be only GCAP and no FCAS. From this perspective, the FCAS project is already a "death" project for Britain.
Since it is a "dead" project, the cooperation intention agreement signed by Saudi Ministry of Defence and British Ministry of Defence is very interesting. After all, if Saudi Arabia really wants to participate in the British sixth-generation fighter project, it should also sign a statement of intention to join the GCAP project, not a FCAS. The British-led FCAS is dead and has something to burn ... but the FCAS that still exists is a project of France, Germany and Spain, and neither Britain nor Saudi Arabia can participate.
Therefore, Ivan's personal views and the statement of cooperation intention signed by Saudi Arabia and Britain may even be severely pieced together by the British.
Bullying Saudi Arabia didn't do a good background check, so it invented a project and signed it with the Saudis. If it is true, it is a legitimate diplomatic accident.
It is more likely that this "future air combat system" is not a specific project, but just a general term for Britain.
This can be seen from the differences between Britain and Saudi Arabia after signing the agreement: Saudi Arabia seems to think that they have signed a formal R&D project for the whole machine, and our domestic rumor is that Saudi Arabia will participate in the R&D of the whole machine in Britain.
However, the British side denied it, saying only that the agreement they signed with Saudi Arabia only meant that they could "better position the future air combat relationship" with Saudi Arabia.
This is tantamount to saying nothing. This agreement, which Britain thinks, is not ruled out, but only takes Saudi Arabia to participate in the discussion of future air combat. The abbreviation is FCAS. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia thinks it is a pragmatic machine development, but Britain knows it is a discussion on the concept of retreat.
This is probably the interpretation of this matter on the internet at present, and it is also the fundamental reason why it is close to Rashomon in the fog.
What do you think of the agreement signed by the two countries? Therefore, Ivan's point of view is that the agreement on FCAS signed by Britain and Saudi Arabia is probably expressed separately: no one understands what the other party is saying, and then they signed the agreement in such a muddle, and what they said after signing the agreement, only to find that they didn't talk about a channel at all.
In fact, even if a channel is involved, it is not easy for Saudi Arabia.
First of all, Britain's own sixth-generation fighter project, the GCAP project, has just started. At the end of last year, the cooperation intention was signed and the main subcontractors were determined. As for what the project will do next, how to determine their respective R&D contents, how to coordinate R&D, contractor's subcontracting ratio, intellectual property rights, etc. , has not yet landed. According to France, Germany and Spain, it took three years from the negotiation of cooperation intention to the progress of formal cooperation agreement. According to the negotiation practice of Britain and Japan, it is estimated that it will take two or three years to finish the talks, and this aircraft will not officially enter the research and development stage until 2025.
Therefore, even according to the research and development progress of Britain and Japan, the GCAP project will really land no earlier than 2030. ?
In fact, when Britain started the FCAS-TI project and Storm Fighter in 20 18, it was said that the prototype of Storm would be produced in 2027, but the time node had been greatly delayed after the GCAP project. At present, the node of GCAP has been postponed to 2035, saying that it is necessary to take out the prototype to complete the test flight in 2035 and form combat effectiveness before 2040.
This means that if this project does not have three major sponsors, it may not even be until 2040 to get GCAP fighters. Saudi Arabia signed an agreement, and it will take at least 17 years to get the product. You can imagine how unreliable this matter is. Considering the complexity of fighter project research and development and the risk of joint research and development, GCAP may eventually give up halfway, and Saudi Arabia cannot completely bet on it. ?
After the above discussion, we can probably draw a conclusion: First, the cooperation intention of FCAS signed by Britain and Saudi Arabia was not limited to the case of Hulu Monk arbitrarily trying Hulu. It is very likely that Saudi Arabia has not figured it out, and Britain has not figured it out; Second, even if Britain and Saudi Arabia can finally join hands to participate in the research and development of the GCAP project, this GCAP project will not land until 2030 and mass production will not begin until 2040. Moreover, the risk of the project is relatively large, and the best risk control is required.
What will the combination of these two points lead to? Even if Saudi Arabia can really eat GCAP cake, the fifth-generation fighter equipment from 2025 to 2040 still exists for Saudi Arabia.
After all, it is impossible for Saudi Arabia to completely give up the equipment of the five generations of fighters for this future. Otherwise, will the Saudi Air Force rely on three or four generations of fighters in the next fifteen years? More likely, Saudi Arabia will not eat GCAP cake in the end, and it must find someone to develop the sixth-generation fighter.
And who is most sure to negotiate with Saudi Arabia to develop the sixth-generation fighter?
Obviously, whoever can give Saudi Arabia enough support in the development and equipment of the fifth-generation fighter is to let Saudi Arabia use its standards. Then, obviously, this country will seize the opportunity in the development of the sixth generation fighter. After all, the established technical standards, the established maintenance system and even the completed workshop tools are ready-made and have technical continuity.
So, this is our chance FC-3 1. No matter what Saudi Arabia and the British talk about, we must continue to talk about cooperation.