I. Main factors affecting interest rate changes 1. The domestic macroeconomic situation mainly refers to economic growth rate, money supply and price fluctuation.
2. The impact of international interest rate changes is mainly that the interest rate level in the United States has an impact on the interest rate in China.
3. The influence of policy factors. Some non-economic factors also have a certain impact on the national monetary policy.
Second, the analysis of relevant factors affecting the current interest rate changes in China 1. Judging from the domestic economic situation, according to the data in the Macroeconomic Analysis Report of China in the First Half of the Year on July 24th, the main national economic indicators in the first half of the year are as follows:
(1) The growth rate of money supply is low. Judging from the relationship between economic growth and money supply in recent years, the current growth rate of money supply is also low, which is difficult to meet the increasing money demand of economic growth; In June, China's loans increased substantially, and loans from financial institutions increased by 292.9 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+0097 billion yuan year-on-year. This is a positive change that has never happened in recent years.
According to the analysis, there is an obvious deviation between the growth rate of money supply hovering at a low level and the economic recovery, which is the fundamental reason why China's economic recovery trend is unsustainable. Since loans are an effective way to increase China's money supply, if this change can be sustained, it will be a great kinetic energy to further boost China's economy.
(2) The industrial growth rate declined. In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1 1.7% year-on-year, which was 3.2 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year, but the growth rate slowed down in June, which was 0.5 percentage points lower than that in May.
Although the decline of industrial growth rate may be a fluctuation in the process of rising, considering that the growth rate of state-owned fixed assets investment first drops and then rises, the upward momentum of export growth rate is also obviously weakened, so it can basically be regarded as a sign that industrial growth rate has peaked or is about to peak.
(3) the price level has dropped. In the first half of the year, the overall consumer price level decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year, including 0.6% in the first quarter and 1. 1% in the second quarter. The general trend of retail prices of social goods is similar, with a decrease of 1.6% in the first half of the year compared with the same period of last year.
Analyzing the continuous decline of price level is still a problem that puzzles the current economic operation of our country. Use measures to control deflation, such as lowering interest rates, increasing currency circulation, and accelerating the pace of social security reform.
(4) The retail sales of social consumer goods grew steadily. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.6% year-on-year, down 65,438 0.4 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year. After deducting the price factor, the actual increase is 10. 1%. Judging from the trend since this year, it has basically remained at a level slightly higher than 8%, with little fluctuation.
The analysis shows that social consumption is stable and not affected by other factors.
(5) Residents' savings deposits have increased substantially. In the first half of the year, the savings deposits of residents of financial institutions increased by 803.4 billion yuan, an increase of 27/kloc-0.0 billion yuan, an increase of 50.9%. Among the new savings deposits, the demand-oriented tendency of savings deposits is still obvious. The reasons for the sharp increase in residents' savings deposits are: the rapid growth of residents' income, and the disposable income of urban households increased by16.6% in the first half of the year; The stock market is weak, and the diversion effect on savings is obviously reduced.
China is in a special period of social security system transformation and reconstruction. Many institutional reforms, such as pension, medical care, employment, education, housing, etc., allow people to cope with the uncertainty of future expectations through savings. When people choose to save, they actually regard the bank as a "safe" rather than an investment. In order to fundamentally solve the problems of system tightening and falling prices, the most important thing is to gain new impetus for reform, so that people have an optimistic attitude towards the future and need not be afraid of old-age care and medical care.
From the above data and analysis, we can further analyze:
After the eighth interest rate cut at the beginning of the year, the nominal interest rate of China's 1 year deposit is 1.98%, and with the deflation rate of 1.3%, the real deposit interest rate should be 3.28%. The nominal interest rate of the loan is 5.3 1%. Considering deflation, the real interest rate is above 6%, which is relatively high at home and abroad. The higher real interest rate inhibits the start of investment and economic activities to some extent. Therefore, there is still room for the RMB interest rate to fall.
Another set of statistics shows that China's price level has been declining from September 5438+0 to the end of May 2006. The national consumer price index (CPI) has experienced negative growth since 20011,with an average year-on-year decrease of 0.8% from June to June. At the same time, the growth rate of national fiscal revenue slowed down, and the growth rate of revenue in the first quarter decreased by 24.5% compared with the same period of last year, the lowest point in recent years; The loan balance of financial institutions has maintained a low growth rate of 10%- 12% since last year, while the household savings rate has remained high. At the end of May, residents' savings exceeded 8 trillion yuan. All these indicators show that China's employment and consumer demand have not improved, the pattern of oversupply in the domestic market still exists, and the pressure of deflation is increasing day by day.